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Market Update : 
Will Oil Climb Higher
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 6:02 PM EDT April 21 2006


Gulf of Mexico has witnessed one of the largest sustained loss of oil and gas production in the last six months. In the last six months 27% of oil and 20% of gas production has been lost. Iran suggested higher oil prices and reiterated that Western nations can afford to real oil price. In the past Iran has suggested oil price of more than $100 per barrel.

 
[R]6:00PM Oil at $75, gold at $635 and copper at $3.14[/R]
Iran’s hawkish comments that rich nations with billions of dollars in income can pay ‘real oil price’, boosted oil to a new high. Barrel of oil now trades above $75. Iran, fourth largest oil exporter, exports 3.9 million bpd and is a member of OPEC cartel with daily production of 27.81 millions of barrel per day. Iranian President did not suggest what is appropriate price of oil but Iranian lawmakers in the past have suggested a price north of $100 per barrel. Gasoline price are on the move at pump stations across the nation. According to the AAA.com web site of the largest motorist organization gasoline price at the pump are up 12% for the month and whopping 60% from a year ago. Last registered high price of $3.05 a gallon during Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma has been shattered in many regions of the country.

Several market analysts project that a new may be registered during the driving season in Memorial Day weekend. Nigerian rebel have refused to negotiate, Iran is suggesting higher prices and U.S., China and India continue to grow their oil demand. Oil price during this hurricane season may spike and score a new high if offshore-refineries are damaged for a sustained period of time. Even after six months of Katrina, according Minerals Management Services, a government agency, 22% of nations of Gulf of Mexico oil facility and 13% of natural gas producing capacity remains closed. In the last eight 27% of oil production and 20% gas production has been lost.

[R]4:30PM Earnings, Oil and gold dominate trading in stocks.[/R]

-Dow up 4.56%, Nasdaq down 19.69 and S&P down 0.18 points.
-Crude oil up $1.48 per barrel to $75.17 and gasoline closed up 3 cents to $2.20.
-Gold up $12.40 to $635.50 per ounce and silver up 44 cents to $12.96.
-Copper reached a new high to $3.14 up 18 cents.
-Yield on ten year bond rose to 5.010% and 30-year bonds to 5.095%.

Market averages rose early in the morning trading hours but lost momentum as tech stock declined and oil rose above $75 a barrel. Gold, silver rose but copper closed at a record high. Market averages meandered for the rest of the day. In New York and Nasdaq trading volume crossed 2.3 million shares. On New York Stock Exchange 290 stocks reached new highs and 88 stocks reached new lows. On Nasdaq 222 stocks reached new highs and 34 stocks reached new lows.

Earnings dominated trading sentiment for the rest of the day. Google rose as much as 8% before settling at 5.3% on 60% earnings growth and 79% revenue growth in the first quarter of this year. 3M reported earnings per share of $1.17 beating the estimate of $1.13. The stocks rose 3% at close. General Motors (GM: chart) rose 3.8% after rising 10% on Thursday and Ford Motor lost 8% on weak earnings. Dell and Hewlett Packard lost after Citigroup lowered its rating to “Sell” on Dell. Dell lost 4.4% and Hewlett Packard lost 3% at close.

Getty Images, SanDisk and Satyam dropped on earnings news. Getty Images (GYI: chart) dropped 13% on earnings miss of a penny and lowered guidance for the rest of the year. The company also mentioned during the conference call that market environment is too “promotional” and gross margin will suffer for the rest of the year.

SanDisk (SNDK: chart) closed 8% lower on earnings worries and lower than expected gross margin. The company also warned that the average selling price for its removable memory products will keep declining at 20% or more every quarter for the rest of the year. During the conference call the company also reiterated that in the second half of the year manufacturing capacity in the industry is likely to double for NAND type of flash memory.

Satyam Computer (SAY: chart) lost 12% at close on lowered revenue and net margin guidance. The company reported earnings of 39 cents per ADS on revenue growth of 34% for the Q4. The company guidance of 24% to 26% in revenue growth and earnings growth of 20% to 22% spooked investors.

[R]3:30PM Emerging markets remain a favorite destination of international investors.[/R]
Emerging markets closed mostly lower across the world but Korea, Mexico, Argentina, Philippines and Singapore gained during the day advancing close to 1% each. Emerging markets witnessed steady stream of fund flows from the domestic and international investors. Liquidity driven rally propelled many of these markets around the world to record levels. Indonesia, India, Russia and Mexico are trading at record levels.

India registered 7% gain for the week and was close to unchanged at close on Friday. Market dropped as much as 160 points at mid-day and recovered most of the losses on strong buying from domestic mutual funds. Metal stocks such as Tata Steel, Hindalco and Sterlite registered sterling gains in the week. Daily turnover in the market has steadily grown to $1.3 billion from $700 million in the beginning of the year. The Sensex Index in India is up more than 27% for the year.

Indonesia has scaled more than 25% gain for the year so far and has become one of the hottest destinations for the international investors. Funds have been pouring money as bond yields are one of the highest in the world. The index lost a fraction to close at 1,459. Bank Permata, Berlian Laju Tanker and AStra Agro Lestari rose more than 0.5% at close.

Russia closed lower as the main index RTS closed at 1,617 down 0.07% with daily turnover of $714 million. Market dropped more than 1.4% in the morning trading and made a recovery near close but oil and metals stocks rose. NorNickel and Sibneft closed up 1.5%. Russian Index is up 36% for the year so far.

Mexico and Argentina led advancers in Latin American region. Mexico closed up 0.8% and IPC index closed up at 21,140. The index has been recording new highs for the last three weeks as oil and copper prices have moved upwards in the international markets. The Bank of Mexico cut the overnight interest rate to 7% from 7.25% and lowered the rate for the ninth time in nine months. The Bank also signaled that more cuts are not likely in the near future. American Movil (AMX: chart) and Femsa (FMX: chart) rose a fraction but Cemex (CX: chart) fell a fraction on earnings news. Grupo Mexico added 5% at close. Mexican index IPC has gained 400% in the last five years, 100% in last two years and 12% since the beginning of the year.

Argentina’s Merval Index gained 1.4% to close at 1,918 and close up 24% for the year and has averaged $29 million daily turnover for the year. Tenaris, the largest energy tube manufacturing company, closed up 4% to close at peso 69.40 and closed up $14 in New York to $230.80.

Brazil index Bovespa lost 0.4% to close at 39,774. Mining and oil stocks continued their ascent. The mining giant CVRD (RIO: chart) rose 4% in New York trading to close at $51.50 and Petrobras in New York closed higher $2.65 to close $99.60.

[R]12:30AM European stocks advanced.[/R]
European markets extended early gains to close in the positive, boosted by strong U.S. markets start on the back of upbeat news from Google and 3M. All sectors advanced, except for the tech sector, dragged by disappointing quarterly results from Sweden’s Ericsson and Britain’s WPP. The German DAX 30 gained 0.5%, the French CAC 40 rose 0.9%, while London’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.8%.

[R]11:30AM The Dow and S&P advanced. The Nasdaq dropped.[/R]
The U.S. stock markets turned mixed in late morning trading after posting strength in early hours. The Nasdaq failed to sustain gains and moved into the negative territory, while the Dow and S&P remained above the flat line. U.S. blue-chip stocks rose on Friday to a fresh six-year high on stronger-than-expected earnings by Google Inc. (GOOG: chart), but chipmaker Broadcom Corp. (BRCM: chart) and computer company Dell Inc. ((DELL: chart) pulled the Nasdaq Composite Index lower. Broadcom fell 4% on analyst concerns about the outlook for the chip maker''s margins and profits. Del fell 3.2% on brokerage downgrade, saying the company is losing its price advantage.

Gold stocks posted the most notable advance compared to other stocks which showed only modest gains. The sector showed a 3.2%, rebounding from 6.7% decline in the previous session on rising price of the precious metal. Gold for June delivery was last traded at $628 an ounce. Other metal prices also gained some ground after coming under pressure in the previous session. Bargain hunting helped the energy sector move to the upside, with the oil and oil service sectors both currently up about 1%. Meanwhile significant weakness was seen among disk drive stocks, with the sector currently showing a 3.9% decline. SanDisk (SNDK: chart) and Hutchinson Technology (HTCH: chart) dragged the sector down on lower quarterly earnings. The loss shown by the Nasdaq was also contributed by other tech stocks. Some semiconductor and networking stocks posted notable declines, with weakness also visible among biotechnology stocks.

[R]10:30AM Sensex closed above 12,000 and up 7% for the week.[/R]
Sensex closed at 12,030 down 9 points and gained 7% for the week. Volatile trading, rising metals prices and profits of software export companies and mutual funds investments all contributed to the positive sentiment towards the market. Market sentiment also improved as rating agencies raises the debt rating for India and Reserve Bank left the short-term interest rate unchanged.
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