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IPO Outlook: 
The Passing Parade: An IPO Weather Report
Author: John E. Fitzgibbon, Jr.
123jump.com



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Snow and St. Patrick’s Day just seem to go together. At least, that’s true in New York City last week. The same thing can be said about the IPO market.

 
Weak IPOs fell from the sky on to Wall Street last week, just as 3 to 6 inches of snow blew into Manhattan on March 16. The next day, thousands of people who have never seen County Cork, Ireland, lined Fifth Avenue for the St. Patrick’s Day parade. And on March 18, another 3 to 6 inches of snow blanketed the city.

On Friday, March 19, the stock market sold off sharply due to an unfortunate series of events. The search for a highly placed al Qaeda leader and tensions along the Pakistani-Afghanistan border made stock investors nervous enough to hit the “sell” button. In the last hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted, thanks to “quadruple witching” -– the expiration of stock and index options and futures. The Dow ended down more than 100 points and all three stock indexes slipped into negative territory for the year.

This wasn’t exactly the recipe for an IPO punch bowl.

Bankers priced seven IPOs during the week that began on Monday, March 15. That date, of course, was immortalized by Shakespeare as the Ides of March. Five of those IPOs traded below their initial offering prices.

One managed to escape being pulled under water by the outgoing tide. This was a unit offering called Chardan China Acquisition (CAQCA: chart) - (OTC Bulletin Board).

The week’s only real winner was Capital Lease Funding (LSE: chart). It was traded Friday and gained nearly 28 percent in the aftermarket. But its performance wasn’t enough to salvage the disappointing IPO week.

At Friday’s close, the week’s IPO Scoreboard showed three IPOs finished the week above their initial offering prices and four didn’t. The average loss for the week’s seven IPOs was down 1.3 percent each. (For subscribers, please see the following column for details.)

That’s the bad news.

Now for the good news. Actually, make that great news.

For the year to date, the 2004 IPO Scorecard showed that 31 IPOs have been priced (excluding three unit offerings consisting of common stock and warrants). At Friday’s close on March 19, 2004, 18 IPOs were above their initial offering prices and 13 new issues were below their offering prices. The average gain per IPO was up 13.8 percent each. That’s a great performance, considering that all of the three major stock market indexes closed Friday with a loss for the year.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 10,186.60, down 2.56 percent from its close of 10,453.92 on Dec. 31, 2003. It was down 5.1 percent from its Feb. 11, 2004, closing high of 10,737.70.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,940.47, down 3.14 percent from its close of 2,003.37 on Dec. 31, 2003. It was down 9.9 percent from its Jan. 26, 2004, closing high of 2,153.83.

The S&P 500 closed at 1,109.78, down 0.19 percent from its close of 1,111.92 on Dec. 31, 2003. It was down 4.1 percent from its Feb. 11, 2004, closing high of 1,157.76.

More good news:
If last week’s offerings were getting shelled in the aftermarket, there was life in the pre-market. The filing window at the Securities and Exchange Commission was open for business and bankers kept it busy.

Thirteen companies filed plans to go public last week. That was the second-most active week this year. The busiest was during the week ended Feb. 13, 2004, when 15 companies filed plans to go public.

Last week’s traffic raised the number to 33 IPO filings so far in March, and 71 IPOs filings so far in 2004. In 2003, 111 companies filed plans to go public and, in 2002, 129 companies filed plans to go public, according to available records.

To sum up last week, the weatherman might say: “Into each life, some rain -– or snow -– must fall. But eventually the sunshine breaks through.”
More: IPO Outlook Archive

 



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