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Market Update : 
Walgreen First Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 6:40 AM EST December 27 2007


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The U.S. drugstore operator’s revenue increased 10.4% to $14.03 billion, failing to meet analysts’ expectations of $14.11 billion. Same-store sales rose 5.4%, while front-end same-drugstore sales rose 4.6%. Prescription sales, which accounted for 66.1% of sales, climbed 11.1%. Prescription sales in comparable stores rose 5.9%, while the number of prescriptions filled in comparable stores increased 3.7%. The company plans to open 550 new stores in 2007, with a net increase of more than 475.

 
William M. Rudolphsen: Yes, we do.

Andrew Wolf (BB&T Capital Markets): Could you give quantification of how much more labor rates can be managed down?

Jeffrey A. Rein: I do not want to give an exact figure on how much more can be managed down. It is a lot more focused than ever before. During the last summer we just did not do a good job of focusing on it, week to week to week. We are doing it now. Focusing on labor from a corporate point of view and also engaged store level to make sure we look at that payroll. It is more judicious use of payroll and we look at the out-liers. We have templates that the manager and district manager and store ops Vice President agree upon, that how many hours are allotted to every store including pharmacy and front-end. If the sales are there then we are okay. If the sales get much better than anticipated, we can put hours on. If they get much worse than anticipated we can take hours out. One thing we do not want to do is hurt service levels and we have had a track record now of having decreased service complaints in our stores. It is a focused effort on taking care of the customer, taking care of the patient and we are not going to be so silly as to cut payroll to the bone where we hurt ourselves. We want to take care of our people and we want to take care of our customers and patients all the time.

Gregory D. Wasson: The other thing that we did do intelligently, back to the 24-hour, we did take a look at some of the 24-hour stores that we had and rolled back a few that did not make sense and we may have been aggressive over the years in adding some of those 24-hour locations. We rolled a few back that helps us in that area.

Jeffrey A. Rein: We are reviewing the districts; we had some districts that were 50% 24-hour stores. We just did not need that for the coverage.

Andrew Wolf (BB&T Capital Markets): On the pharmacy side of the business, both at Walgreens and other public chains and the industry at large, this year has been slower than last year in the prescription business. There are different reasons, one is you are lapping in the Part D infusion last year, Wal-Mart and others have made a competitive bid for business, the economy, add flu. How would you ascribe the slowing in the scripts this year?

Jeffrey A. Rein: I would agree with those reasons you listed and Medicare Part D, the flu obviously is playing a part of it. Another thing coming into play is employers putting more cost on employees. As you see co-pays rising people unfortunately do not fill their medications as much as possible. What you are seeing is more and more people are getting access to care. I am confident the numbers will go up as people get access to care. For example, through our Take Care Clinics and other clinics that are out there. People want to stay well, as insurance companies pay for visits to the Take Care Clinics for example. That encourages people to come into the system. Before, they might be putting it off, for example they did not want to go to a doctor, and they know it is expensive. They just wait it out. There has also been a lot of negative publicity regarding various cough syrups and other medications and people might be taking a jaundiced view of it. It is our job as a pharmacist and pharmacy profession, to encourage people to take their medication on a regular basis. That is one of our biggest opportunities to grow numbers, to get people to be compliant and adhere on their medications.

Mark Miller (William Blair & Company LLC): You talked about you can improve the rate of expense control through additional things going forward. Can you elaborate on that?

Jeffrey A. Rein: We have a lot of ability to bring that down as needed. Whatever we want to do is, in terms of payroll, is to make sure we do not impact sales. On the expense we want to make sure that we do not impact shareholder value for the long term. About one-third of our savings this quarter was due to payroll, the other two-thirds was due to these higher legal, insurance and store closing costs. Those ebb and flow. We can not be exact about those, but the biggest SG&A expense line that we can control is payroll. Payroll represents about 50% of our SG&A and that is where, if we have a concentrated effort to make a difference, we can do it.

Mark Miller (William Blair & Company LLC): You mentioned the non-critical projects on hold. How long can those stay on hold if the economy does tighten up, how much ability do you have to bring down the expense growth rate further?

Jeffrey A. Rein: There has always been this unique needs and want-to-do. Some of those want-to-dos are not necessary right now. There are some needs to that we are moving ahead with, but once again, the wants-to-do we just ca not do that. Any list of projects we have to prioritize what we want to do and what we need to make happen and position ourselves well for the future.

Mark Miller (William Blair & Company LLC): In the stores where you have put in the discipline, have you seen a bigger change in their sales so as comped flowed in November, was that more at those stores that had that greater expense discipline?

Jeffrey A. Rein: If you look at the stores on an individual basis, typically those that run the most disciplined payroll have the best stores in terms of being in stock, taking care of the employees, taking care of the customers; everything is great. It is just like inventory for example. You go into some stores and if they are a lot over in inventory, some think well there should be no out-of-stocks, but those are the worst stores in terms of being in stock.

Mark Miller (William Blair & Company LLC): At the pharmacy productivity moved up in this past year, but it is down from where you have been a couple years prior despite overall growth in scripts in the market. Could you address that?

Jeffrey A. Rein: As we expand more into areas where we are not as well known, the prescription growth is slower to begin with. What we have found many times particularly in the northeast and California is that after that four and a half to five year break point, our sales go up faster than the other stores in more mature markets. The market share of penetration drives the ROIC. In more mature markets the stores come up to break even and above, much quicker than they do in some of the areas where we have less than two. Those are stores per 100,000.

David Magee (Suntrust Robinson Humphrey): Would you expect your generic percentage to still grow this year in the environment?

Jeffrey A. Rein: The plan going to generic is a low point in 2008 then it picks up in 2009, 2010 significantly. I do believe that our generic penetration will continue to move up, maybe not quite as quickly on a percentage basis because you do not have all the brands going to generics. More and more people are familiar with generics, doctors believe in generics and the customers and patients know a generic now and are asking for it. It is part of the design of the co-pays. Most employers are keeping those generic co-pays down. As a matter of fact, some companies now are starting to waive co-pays on certain generics just so people will take their medication. There is realization in the health industry in general, that if we can get people to take their meds then our total health care costs will go down over time.

David Magee (Suntrust Robinson Humphrey): Do you expect your net dollar per script reimbursement that you get for generics? that to change much?

Jeffrey A. Rein: No. Not on a per script basis.

David Magee (Suntrust Robinson Humphrey): Are you headed toward a period of greater ongoing confrontation between PBMs and retailers over reimbursement, broadly not just Care Mark, but Medco and Express as well?

Jeffrey A. Rein: There has always been a discussion with the PBMs over the years in terms of the reimbursement rate which we feel is needed and fair to us, and at the same time fair to them. I would not say it is more conflict at all. These four plans with CVS Care Mark is just something that we have not been able to work out yet.
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