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Market Update : 
TD Ameritrade Holding Fourth Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Albena Toncheva
123jump.com
Last Update: 9:12 AM EDT October 29 2007


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The leading securities brokerage and financial services firm reported revenue of $575 million, up 18% from $488.7 million in the previous year, on strong growth in both transaction and asset-based revenue. Due to volatility in the market, the average number of trades per day increased to 278,000 or a 4.4% activity rate, versus last year''s activity rate of 3.3% or 204,000 trades per day. For fiscal 2008, the firm expects to earn between $1.15 and $1.39 per share.

 
Joe Moglia: It''s about 11%.

Mike Vinciquerra (BMO Capital Markets): The Market Gear acquisition sounds like an interesting tuck-in that should give you much better tools to offer your clients there. Can you talk a little bit about what that brings to the table?

Joe Moglia: What we did was we bought the intellectual property, in effect, from Market Gear that would enhance our overall options platform. For the more aggressive and the more sophisticated option investors, it gives them greater sophistication, greater education, et cetera. As long as we are going to focus on the active trader, then the option business has to be a critical component of that and it''s something we are always looking at.

Rich Repetto (Sandler O’Neill): The DARTS up 23% in October month-to-date to a record level of 326. From your vantage point, can you talk about retail investor engagement and what your view is given there has been a heightened level of activity here?

Joe Moglia: When the market talks about volatility they are often talking about the market going down. When we in the market talk about volatility we talk about market movements up and down. That type of volatility that we''ve seen over the span of the last month or so would certainly keep the individual investor involved. With regard to the Fed having eased 50 basis points, I think they absolutely like that. When you look at the individual sectors that they seem to have interest in, they like international, even with all the volatility; as well as technology; and they''re invested in energy. On the negative side of the equation, they''re certainly not crazy about what''s going on now in the financial sector or in homebuilders in general. The volatility in the market coupled with the Fed has made the individual investor relatively comfortable. However, do not underestimate the pressure that might exist with regard to the economy a quarter or two down the road. If indeed that starts to happen, you''ll see the individual investor back off. Right now they are certainly involved.

Rich Repetto (Sandler O’Neill): Is the increased activity coming more from the active traders or accounts returning back to the market that didn''t trade before? Do you even have that info?

Joe Moglia: It''s absolutely across the board. People that are relatively active are a little bit more active; but you are seeing people that are doing a small handful of trades a year do a couple more. It''s across the board.

Matt Snowling (FBR): You said in your prepared remarks that you''re expecting asset growth of 16%. Did that include Fiserv?

Joe Moglia: No.

Matt Snowling (FBR): How much are you thinking coming from organic versus market participation?

Joe Moglia: Of the 16%, probably 5% would be market, 10% or 11% would be organic.

Matt Snowling (FBR): In your outlook statement, it appears that you''re expecting some spread compression in the net interest income line. Is that a pricing decision or is that expectations of lower rates?

Joe Moglia: If you look at our anticipation with regard to commissions per trade, we were at $13 for 2007 and it is $12.89 or so for 2008. That would be more a lower mix of business with regard to options and more of a conservative estimate on payment for order flow. For the most part on our net interest margins, they''re reasonably flat.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): What sources would you say you''re gathering the most assets and accounts from? Where are your sources of accounts these days?

Joe Moglia: The account transfers themselves are a very small part of the overall business or the overall numbers. The majority of the assets that we see coming in, in effect, would be new and we wouldn''t necessarily know for a fact where they come from as far as account transfers go. But in general, we are starting to see a reasonable pickup in the mass affluent sector across full commission firms, in general.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): Could you prioritize your uses of free cash flow going forward in terms of debt or stock buybacks, dividends, acquisitions?

Joe Moglia: There are a lot of firms that lock into this is what we do with our cash and then they move forward with that. We''ve always been, at TD AMERITRADE, very dynamic with looking at that. That''s something we look at every month and it certainly comes up at every board meeting. It''s difficult to prioritize. We look at all of those with regards to opportunity.

Michael Hecht (Banc of America Securities): It sounds like on the net interest revenue side you''re baking in a little bit of spread compression, but if we look at the MMDAs, it looks like you''re baking in about 9% growth in average balances and 4% to 4.5% increase in spreads. What''s driving that and what are the rates paid to clients on those balances and how competitive these dealers are relative to part cash?

Bill Gerber: We had an MMDA price change in September, that''s going to basically be the main reason for the change in the spread.

Michael Hecht (Banc of America Securities): What are the rates that people earn on those now and how do you feel that compares to rates people can earn on other forms of cash?
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