In developed markets, we do not expect much growth. North America could be flat to down 3%. Europe only up modesty flat to up 3%. Positive RevPar growth will be driven by emerging markets, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa were beyond more than 40% of our fees in 2009.
Assuming Asian economic growth remains robust, Asia could grow 5% to 8% in local currencies. Similar growth rates are likely in Latin America, mostly due to the sharp decline the region experienced last year from H1N1.
Mexico remains a key risk. A weak economy is hurting business travel, crime and lingering H1N1 effects hurting leisure travel. But South America is a bright spot with its significant commodity exports to fast growing Asia. Africa and the Middle East could grow 3% to 6% assuming the situation in the Gulf stabilizes and oil prices hold up.
Exchange rates are currently a tailwind. If rates remain at current levels, dollar RevPar could be 100 basis points higher globally. It is unclear that foreign exchange will remain a tailwind. Expectations are that the dollar could strengthen further versus the pound, the euro and the yen.
Our exposure to the euro and the yen is partially hedged which will mitigate some of the earnings impact of dollar stress. We would expect management and franchise fee growth to track RevPar growth globally.
Our own hotels as you know, are concentrated in developed markets, North America, Europe and Mexico. As such, we expect all RevPar to be flattish, down 2% to up 2% in local currencies. Occupancies are likely to be positive but rates will stay negative. With flat RevPar and occupancies up, we will need to continue to work hard to limit cost growth.
Our intent remains to offset wage and expense inflation with various productivity and procurement programs as we did in 2009. However, 2010 will be another year of declining owned EBITDA.
We substantially scaled back our SG&A, down $100 million from 2008 run rates. We believe we are now right sized and are holding the line on headcount, except in growth markets like Asia, Africa and the Middle East. However, with salary adjustments and central compensation resets, the negative impact of a weak dollar and a couple of other items moving in the wrong direction, SG&A in 2010 will be up 3% to 5%.
On an operating bases, our vacation ownership business will be down $40 million or so versus 2009. 23 million of the reduction would be from securitization gains which we will not have in 2010 due to the change in accounting rules. We also did two securitizations last year, as a result interest income this year will be 15 million to 20 million lower. This 40 million or so decline in vacation ownership operating results is offset by a 40 million add back from the adoption of FAS 166, 167.
In 2009, operating incomes for vacation ownership and residential was around 118 million. Our range for this year is essentially the same, with the accounting change included. At the midpoint of the zero to up 5% RevPar range and the plus 2% to minus 2% range for owned hotels, baseline Company EBITDA would be $750 million.
Each point of RevPar adds or subtracts 15 million in EBITDA. For an apples-to-apples comparison to 2010, you have to adjust 2009 down by around 20 million for asset sales and the de-flagging of the Sheraton Manhattan. The FAS 166, 167 add back in 2010 as we just outlined is a wash with the reduction of financing income at SVO. So, what''s this 775 million in 2009, the 750 million scenario is a 25 million decline almost entirely from owned EBITDA.
To get to EPS, our D&A and depreciation and amortization is down about 10 million or so due to asset sales. Our book interest expense is up by about 20 million from the accounting change. With a 22% tax rate, the 750 million scenario for EBITDA translates to $0.63 of EPS.
Moving on to liquidity, leverage and cash flow. Our liquidity and leverage enhancement program is largely complete. Debt is down below $3 billion from over $4 billion. Our year-end leverage ratio was at four times, well below the covenant level of five and a half times.
We started the year with 2.9 billion in debt maturing through 2013. We end the year with slightly over 1 billion in maturities through 2013 and no maturities until 2012. All maturing debt in 2010 and 2011 has been paid down. Our financial flexibility has been substantially enhanced.
In the first half of 2010, we will be working with our bank group to extend the maturity of our revolver beyond 2011. In the fourth quarter, we generated 400 million from the sale of the 5th Avenue retail shops at a 20 multiple of ‘09 EBITDA, Bliss has a 30 multiple and securitization that generated a $23 million gain all accretive transactions.
In 2010, we will spend 250 million in hotel capital. Investment capital spending will be 100 million as we undertake some ROI projects which were on hold. Maintenance and IT spending will be 150 million as we step up spending on technology. We''re scaling back capital spending at SVO again as projects are completed.
The securitization planned in Q4 2010, SVO will generate over $150 million is cash flow, more than adequate to cover capital it at Bal Harbor. Bal Harbor capital is estimated at 140 million but could be lower as we receive deposits from additional condo sales. Both inquiries and contract activity at Bal Harbor have picked up meaningfully after the turn of the year.
Cash generated in the hotel business will be sufficient to cover cash interest and taxes, so on an operating basis we will be cash flow neutral in 2010. We are still expecting to receive our tax refund from the IRS sometime in 2010. Assuming we receive 200 million plus from the tax refund, after paying dividends and before any additional asset sales, debt should come down another 100 million to 200 million by the end of the year.
In summary, we are entering what we believe will be a multiyear up swing with a great cost structure, excellent liquidity, a strong balance sheet and of course the best brands, pipeline and global footprint in the hotel business.
As Frits indicated we feel very good about the long-term outlook for our business. With that I will turn this back to Jay. |