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Market Update : 
Red Hat Q4 Earnings Call Transcript
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 11:33 AM ET March 31 2009


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Moving to the statement of cash flows, cash flow from operations was $60 million for the quarter and $236 million for the full year. For the full year this is a 16% absolute growth or 22% on a per share basis due to the substantial reduction in diluted shares. Because CapEx was only 24 million this year, the increase in free cash flow per share was even more impressive at 38%. Again, keep in mind we achieved this growth in the face of a $20 million reduction in net interest income for the year. Now, before turning to guidance, let me remind investors about how we are calculating non-GAAP results beginning in fiscal 2010. For fiscal 2010 income statement, I will provide the same non-GAAP adjustments to pre-tax income as in the past. Pre-tax, we adjust for only two items, which are stock compensation expense and amortization of intangibles.

As I mentioned last year, starting in fiscal year 2010 that is the fiscal year, which began on March 1, 2009, we will be reporting non-GAAP results using the same tax rate, which we used for GAAP reporting and we have good news here. Due to better than expected tax planning, we are now forecasting an effective annual GAAP tax rate of 35% for the coming year, rather than the 39%, which I had previously guided and which is built into most models.

We will report non-GAAP net income and EPS using a 35% tax rate in Q1, and will adjust historic comparisons accordingly, so that all periods reflect the GAAP tax rate. The historic reconciliation is available on our Investor Relations website. As I stated in the past year, this change will have virtually no impact on GAAP operating cash flow. More good news, for information only, we now expect our cash tax rate to be about 5% throughout fiscal year that we are now in, as a result of approximately $80 million of remaining NOLs and other tax credits carry forwards.

Let me now turn to guidance, I realize that many others have stopped providing guidance or limited what they provide. We feel that we are in the best position to give an indication of our outlook. But we realized that the global economic situation and the volatility of exchange rates among other things make forecasting this year especially challenging. With that in mind, I offer the following as guidance based upon foreign exchange rates approximately where they were yesterday, and based on our present view of the macroeconomic environment. We expect double digit revenue growth in both constant currencies and U.S. dollars. Although, the apparent U.S. dollar growth rate is likely to be somewhat muted through the end of the August quarter because of difficult foreign exchange comparisons last year we are forecasting total revenue in the range of $720 million to $735 million for the fiscal year of 2010, representing an annual growth rate of between 10% and 13% in U.S. dollars.

We believe that we can expand our full year non-GAAP operating margin by approximately 100 basis points, while also investing in future growth opportunities. You should expect substantially lower other income again due to lower investment balances and much lower interest rates. For purposes of guidance, I am estimating a further reduction of approximately $20 million in net interest income, which will result in net other income of approximately $3 million per quarter. For those of you building models, keep in mind that this reduction affects both income and operating cash flow. I have seen models that seem to have overlooked this. Assuming a 35% tax rate, and approximately 195 million diluted shares, one would estimate diluted non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.58 per share to $0.62 per share for the full year fiscal 2010. On a GAAP basis, we estimate quarterly stock compensation expense of approximately $13 million and amortization expense of $5 million.

From a cash flow perspective, we anticipate operating cash flow for the full year of between $240 million to $250 million, which incorporates the assumptions about growth in operating income offset by the assumed $20 million reduction in net interest income as previously discussed. Since the diluted share count is expected to decline significantly again from 211 million in fiscal year 2009 to approximately 195 million in fiscal year 2010, or 8%, you may wish to consider cash flow on a per share basis in addition to more traditional measures. I would expect that we will produce $30 million to $40 million of additional cash this year, not included in our operating cash flow, which is related to tax savings from usage of NOLs which originated from stock compensation deductions. This will be recorded in our cash from financial activities line item as it has been for the past several years.

CapEx is expected to be relatively consistent with last year at $25 million to $30 million, meaning that free cash flow per share will also stay strong due to the expected lower share count. Finally, looking at Q1, we offer the following guidance. Revenue is estimated to be between $171 million and $173 million. Non-GAAP operating margin is estimated to be approximately 23%. Other income net is estimated at around $3 million and non-GAAP EPS is estimated to be approximately $0.13 a share to $0.14 a share. In summary, we are pleased that our recurring revenue model has helped us to continue driving solid financial results. We firmly believe that we have the opportunity to grow our business as open source gains further adoption among enterprise customers, and Red Hat continues to gain market share.

We will continue to prudently manage our expenses and investments during fiscal 2010. Even in this difficult macro economic environment, we are targeting double digit revenue growth, improving our operating margins and increasing cash flow per share.

Operator, I''d now like to turn it back to you for the first question.

Question-and-Answer Session

Tom McCallum

For today''s question-and-answer period we will be asking everyone to limit themselves to one question and one follow up question, please. We have a lot in the queue. Thank you. Operator, you can go ahead and poll the audience for questions.

Operator

Your first question is from the line of Steve Ashley with Robert W. Baird.

Steven Ashley – Robert W. Baird

Hi, thanks. I''d actually like to talk about the virtualization business. You talked about the strong renewals, 132% being driven by the virtualization. Is there anything more you could tell us about what kind of adoption rates you are seeing for virtualization and what is driving that in the customer''s eyes? Thanks.

Charles Peters

To be clear, it''s driven by AP and a lot of AP is driven by the benefits around virtualization. Unfortunately, all we have is really anecdotal from discussing with our channel partners and with our sales force on why people are picking AP. So again we know what the rate of AP adoption is and so we can guess on why. We are just seeing continuing interest in virtualization as a way to save on number of servers and power et cetera, et cetera. So clearly, strong interest there and since our recent announcement clearly increasing interest.

Steven Ashley – Robert W. Baird

And just a quick follow up on the free-to-fee business. We are trying to understand the opportunity there. Is this a situation where someone is using RHEL and they are supposed to be paying for it and they are not paying for it? Or is this something where they are using Fedora and you are simply pointing out the value proposition of migrating them over to the paid RHEL? Thanks.


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