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Market Update : 
Morgan Stanley First Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 5:10 AM EDT March 21 2008


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Revenue fell 17% to $8.3 billion from last year''s first quarter results of $9.99 billion. Driving the company''s results was a 51% jump in the sales and trading of equities, as well as numbers from institutional securities and fixed-income businesses. Asset management business posted a pre-tax loss of $161 million due to losses on securities issued by structured investment vehicles.

 
Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): Your clients by size the over $10 million category assets declined the most. Is there anything you can speak to in terms of market trends there?

Colm Kelleher: I do not think there is a market trend. It is a reaction to the market. If you look at the strength of our wealth management business, our retail business, it is fueled by the capital market activities to a large extent. The capital markets have been subdued this quarter. That is the way I look at it. I think the underlying core trend of our business and our strategic push of $1 million, $10 million, $10 million and above clients is intact so I would not read anything in this other than this is a good, ongoing good trend for that business after an exceptionally good fourth quarter.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): Do you view these municipal issues as significant issues for the wealth management business in terms of the auction rate and any repositioning you might have to make there?

Colm Kelleher: Not particularly.

Glenn Schorr (UBS): The overall size of balance sheet potential could go up as you see chief opportunities in dislocated markets and then just overall controlling that leverage. Could you comment on that?

Colm Kelleher: The balance sheet went up $40 billion which is a blip on a balance sheet our size. We do have a liquid balance sheet. We are staying close to the shore. But there is a world where we could opportunistically put up the balance sheet if the opportunities present themselves on a risk adjustment basis and make sense. That is not our intention. Our intent was to sail close to shore and opportunistically on a risk adjustment return basis make adjustments to our balance sheet or liquidity.

Glenn Schorr (UBS): There is meaningful reduction on the commercial real estate front. Could you comment on that?

Colm Kelleher: We have a number of hedges. We have a variety of hedges and it is not just the CNBX hedge. Last quarter when we looked commercial mortgage it was more viewed internationally. I think at that stage we were approximately 70% or so international 65% of our hedges were in the U.S. What has happened is we have managed to reduce some of our international exposure which has continued to perform well through dispositions and so on. Our international exposure is down 48% on a much reduced amount and we feel better symmetrically aligned with the hedges. We flagged the fourth quarter our number two issue that we wanted to manage. We managed it down from the third quarter and it is clear we have aggressively managed it down for this quarter. I feel reasonably comfortable about that position.

Glenn Schorr (UBS): What do unencumbered liquidity buckets consist of?

Colm Kelleher: hNear cash stock. You could add in addition to our $124 billion we had significant amounts of other unencumbered liquidity but our unencumbered or $124 billion is cash and quickly convertible into cash type instruments.

Prashant Bhatia (Citigroup): In terms of the de-leveraging, do you have a target of where you would like to see the gross in that leverage get to?

Colm Kelleher: No. We just want to be judicious in the way we are reacting in this market. We want to be able to have opportunities to take advantage if it makes sense on a risk adjusted basis.

Prashant Bhatia (Citigroup): Does the CVO mez position that you were able to sell mean you are starting to see a vulture bid in that market?

Colm Kelleher: No. I would love to think that is the case but no we just managed to get dispositions done, some sales done for various reasons. We now have a positive convexity on that position as we have the ability to manage it back up.

Prashant Bhatia (Citigroup): On leveraged lending, the commitments were down $5 billion on non-investment grade. Is that correct?

Colm Kelleher: Right.

Prashant Bhatia (Citigroup): Did you just roll forward what happened between the last quarter and this period end?

Colm Kelleher: Yes. What actually happened is that we reduced our commitments to $4.5 billion which is down from $12.2. $900 million of the deals withdrawed and $6.8 billion were closed. Of the deals closed $3 billion were reduced through syndication activity and commitment decreases.

Prashant Bhatia (Citigroup): In wealth management on the bank sweep you are up to $33 billion now. How much is left there that you can bring into bank?

Colm Kelleher: I do not know. A lot of that is a function of the markets. Fear will bring more cash. I think that was its optimal target.

Prashant Bhatia (Citigroup): Can you quantify what is being held on the auction risk securities?
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