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Market Update : 
Kroger Q1 Earnings Call Transcript
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 12:18 AM ET June 30 2009


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Our corporate brands enjoyed another quarter of double-digit growth in both dollar and unit sales. In the grocery department, the corporate brands represented 26% of sales dollars and 35% of units sold. As in the third and fourth quarters last year, our overall tonnage growth in grocery was driven by corporate brands. National brand grocery unit sales declined slightly, but at a slower rate of decline than we saw in the third and fourth quarters last year. Based on these results, it is clear to us that the customers continue to look to our own high quality store brands and the value they offer. And while this shift affects Kroger’s identical sales results, since our store brands typically carry retail prices significantly lower than the national brand equivalent, some as much as 50% lower, it is a trade-off we are happy to make for the long-term growth of our business.

Our identical sales growth is also affected by product cost changes, but the impact can vary considerably across different product categories. So take a deflationary category like milk, for example. While we sold more units, retail prices for milk pressured our first quarter sales results. On the flipside, higher inflation in tobacco helped our sales growth but depressed unit sales on these products. Naturally, product cost changes have always been a factor in our retail pricing decisions. But in the current environment, we are seeing much greater variability and we expect it to continue throughout the year. This adds even more complexity to our business as we manage through this environment.

This morning we confirmed our guidance for fiscal 2009. We are forecasting full-year identical supermarket sales growth of 3% to 4%, without fuel. This guidance reflects our outlook for product cost inflation of 1% to 2%.

Our full-year earnings expectation for fiscal 2009 remains at $2.00 to $2.05 per diluted share. Our first quarter performance was a strong start to the year but it is still early and while our earnings per share results were well ahead of the consensus estimate, they were only slightly ahead of our own internal budget.

Looking forward, there are several variables that will likely influence Kroger’s financial results for the balance of the year. These key trends include commodity costs. Our manufacturing plants enjoyed an outstanding quarter as we benefited from strong volume and lower commodity costs. However, based on rising costs of many commodities today, we do not expect that to continue for the rest of the year.

Diesel fuel costs -- our logistics operations benefited from lower diesel fuel costs during the quarter. Again, based on a number of variables from a global perspective, we do not expect to have the benefit of lower diesel costs for the remainder of the year.

Consumer behavior -- shoppers remain cautious in this economy and we do not anticipate that changing any time soon. We expect customers’ spending patterns to continue to reflect their uncertainty.

As you think about Kroger’s outlook for the full year, recall that as we described last March when we shared our 2009 expectations with you, margins for our retail fuel business are expected to be much lower in 2009 than they were in 2008. The toughest comparisons will be in the second and third quarters of this year. This headwind will be offset somewhat by lower LIFO expenses. Excluding the benefit of the lower LIFO expense, we anticipate a slight increase in Kroger’s non-fuel operating margin. This operating margin expansion plus the 3% to 4% identical sales growth creates the earnings growth reflected in our earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2009.

This guidance reflects our commitment to delivering solid near-term financial results even in a tough operating environment, while investing in the future growth of our business. On top of that earnings growth, Kroger’s dividend adds over 1% to shareholder return. That kind of return should look attractive to investors in this market.

Now I will turn it over to Rodney for additional details on the quarter. Rodney.

W. Rodney McMullen

Thanks, Dave and good morning, everyone. As our first quarter performance indicates, our associates understand the importance of our Customer 1st strategy and its focus on people, products, lower prices, and the overall shopping experience in our family of stores. The strength of our Customer 1st strategy and the flexibility of our business model enable us to continue to deliver value for both our customers and you, our shareholders, in this difficult environment. At the same time, we are investing in Kroger’s long-term growth as we work to emerge in an even stronger position once the economy recovers. Let’s take a closer look at our performance during the quarter.

Kroger’s first quarter net earnings were $435.1 million, or $0.66 per diluted share. This compares with net earnings of $386 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, in the same period last year. We are pleased to report strong earnings results for the quarter, yet these results are only slightly above our internal expectations, as Dave mentioned before. There is extreme volatility in many of our input costs and it is still early in the year. We encourage analysts to keep that in mind as you think about our guidance for the year.

Turning now to Kroger’s gross margin performance, FIFO gross margin excluding Kroger’s retail fuel operations rose 5 basis points on a year-over-year basis. We continued to make investments in lower prices for customers, as reflected by our supermarket selling gross margin, which declined 48 basis points compared to the same period last year. Improvements in shrink, advertising, and warehousing costs as a rate of sales, as well as lower diesel fuel costs, funded Kroger’s investments in lower prices. As Dave mentioned, we do not expect the benefit of lower diesel fuel prices to be significant for the rest of the year.

On LIFO, we recorded a $23.1 million LIFO charge during the quarter, a decrease of $16.9 million from the prior year. This decline benefited Kroger’s non-fuel operating margin by 9 basis points as a percent of sales compared to the prior year. Our estimated product cost inflation for the quarter, excluding fuel, was 3.6%. Cost inflation across several store departments, including grocery, drug/general merchandise, nutrition, and deli/bakery, was tempered slightly by deflation in produce and dairy.

For the full year, we continue to expect a $75 million LIFO charge, which would be $121 million lower than the prior year.

Kroger’s first quarter OG&A rate, excluding the company’s retail fuel operation was flat compared to the prior year. I believe the company’s OG&A performance was actually better than that comparison suggests, so I’ll take a moment to explain why.

Kroger has three non-wholly owned investments - dunnhumbyUSA, The Little Clinic, and i-wireless. Excluding both our retail fuel operations as well as the effect of these investments have on OG&A, Kroger’s first quarter OG&A rate declined 14 basis points as a percent of sales. This decline reflects strong cost controls as well as our ongoing efforts to control utility costs through several efficiency initiatives that we have implemented. We do see continued opportunities in these areas, which will help us offset ongoing cost pressures Kroger faces in pension, healthcare expenses and credit card fees.

Kroger’s first quarter operating margin, excluding our retail fuel operations, expanded 20 basis points. As you may recall, our 2009 guidance indicates that we expect a slight expansion of Kroger’s non-fuel operating margin, excluding the benefit of an expected lower LIFO charge. On this basis and excluding the effect of the three non-wholly owned investments I mentioned earlier, Kroger’s first quarter operating margin expanded 18 basis points.

This expansion is significantly higher than the slight non-fuel operating margin expansion incorporated in our 2009 guidance and long-term business model. The out-performance was driven primarily by the benefit of lower diesel fuel costs, which we don’t expect to continue for the balance of the year.


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