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Market Update : 
Kellogg Company Q4 Earnings Call Transcript
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 1:28 AM ET February 16 2010


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Please turn to slide 19. We will discuss the international business. Outside North America our international business continues to perform well delivering 3% internal net sales growth for the year. In Europe the operating environment remains difficult. As anticipated, the first half of 2009 was flat due to custom issues, but regained momentum in the back half of the year. Europe delivered 2% internal net sales growth for the year and 2% for the quarter. In the fourth quarter Europe achieved share gains in the U.K., France and Italy supported by an increase in brand impressions, Crunchy Nut and Rice Krispies in the U.K. and Extra and Trezole (ph) throughout the continent contributed to this growth. In Russia, we continue to transition away from bulk to higher margin packaged biscuits and cereal and we also achieved significant package share gains in those categories. However, the large reduction in the bulk business adversely impacted the overall volume picture in Europe and for the entire company. In 2010 Europe is expected to deliver low single digit sales growth, despite a continuing tough economic environment.

Turning to Latin America we delivered strong results with 7% internal net sales growth for the year despite flat internal net sales in the fourth quarter. During the quarter we reduced trade inventories in Mexico and the Caribbean and experienced supply constraints in Venezuela. In Mexico we gained share growth in the quarter and the full year aided by the success of newly launched all-bran Yogofi Barra and a new long-targeted media campaign for Zucaritas. Looking to 2010, Latin America is projected to deliver mid single digits growth in internal sales. We enter the year with healthy trade inventory levels, good consumption momentum and strong commercial plans.

For the full-year our Asia Pacific business delivered 5% internal net sales growth building upon last year''s growth of 8%. Our businesses in South Korea, Australia and India all had strong cereal performance. In China we continue to move away from low-margin volume which impacted the fourth quarter and will continue to impact the first half of 2010. For Asia Pacific we expect to see top-line growth in the mid single digit range in 2010.

And now, I''d like to turn it over to David for closing remarks.

A. D. David Mackay

Thanks, John. In summary we are pleased with our 2009 performance. We entered 2010 with confidence in our business model and focused strategy, yet at the same time we are realistic, given the head winds of a volatile economy and consumers struggling under significant stress. While current conditions are unusual, we will continue to drive the business to overcome these challenges. Our financial performance of 2010 will be strong, given our cost savings and productivity momentum and the investments we''re making. The top line is expected to be in line with our long-term guidance, and we have a clear focus to leverage the current tough environment to take advantage to build Kellogg into an even stronger company for the future.

We''re planning to grow our top line through exciting innovation and renovation and continued investment in advertising. We''re optimizing our global organization and striving for enhanced effectiveness in many areas of our business. We''re off to a great start with the completion of the first year of our three year billion dollar plus challenge. We''ve significantly increased our investment in upfront costs which will help grow the efficiency gains, help offset commodity and energy inflation in future periods, and provide the fuel to sustain our momentum. And we will continue to reinvest heavily in the future of our business as we did in 2009. All of these elements combined with excellent financial visibility, support our increased confidence that we''re on track to deliver our targeted rates of growth in 2010 and beyond. We''ve demonstrated our commitment to manage our business the right way, for long term, sustainable dependable performance. And I''d like to thank our shareholders for their continued interest in Kellogg and I''d like acknowledge and thank the Kellogg employees around the world for their dedication to the company and commitment to excellence as we begin 2010.

And now I''d like to open it up for your questions.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. (Operator''s Instructions) If you do have a question please press “*1” on your telephone keypad at this time. Questions will be taken in the order they are received. If you are using a speaker phone we ask that while posing a question, you pick up your handset to provide favorable sound quality. If at any time your question has been answered you can remove yourself from the queue by pressing 1. Again ladies and gentlemen if you do have a question or comment please press “*1” on your telephone keypad at this time. Please hole while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from Terry Bivens of J.P. Morgan. Please state your question.

Terry Bivens – J.P. Morgan

Good morning, everyone. One of the things we''ve been looking at as you know for several years – Wal-Mart''s growth has considerably outpaced that of the general grocery industry. It appears that that may be slowing down and I guess this question would be for you, Dave. They are also for the time being cleaning out Action Alley and we think really hurting some companies that depend on that for merchandising space. I''d like to get your comment on that and just what sort of effect you think that will have on your domestic volumes as we move through this year. I know you don''t like to talk about individual accounts, but if we could just get some sense of how you''re looking at that?

A. D. David Mackay

Yeah sure, Terry. I think first of all, in macro perspective, if you look at North America in particular I think most retailers are feeling the impact of a degree of deflation, particularly when you look at the dairy and general produce sections and I think that''s putting a lot of pressure on them. As costs rise and yet in many areas their absolute sales are actually dropping a bit, and I think that''s an area where most retailers are now looking to see how can they drive a greater efficiency and effectiveness through this supply chain and through their systems. We have been working with many of them, cutting our own SKU''s looking to work with them to see where we can drive further efficiency.

As far as talking about a particular retailer, I think a number of retailers have looked to clean up their stores a little bit. I think the impact of that is typically more felt in the DSD type area where you have the ability and have normally been able to build incremental displays. So where customers are cutting back on that, probably in our DSD area we''re feeling it a little bit more than anywhere else. And most of that, we''ll feel a little bit of impact of that probably through the first half and then most of the activity started mid-2009, so not material but probably a little bit of an impact. But in general terms I think when you look at the overall retailing environment, very challenging given what''s going on with some of the big segments being somewhat deflationary.

Terry Bivens - J.P. Morgan

Okay, thanks for that. I''ll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse. Please state your question.


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