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Market Update : 
Kellogg Company Q4 Earnings Call Transcript
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 1:28 AM ET February 16 2010


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In 2009, our internal net sales grew 3%, with strong operating profit growth at the top-end of our range. As you are aware our internal numbers exclude the effect of foreign exchange, acquisitions, and a 53rd week in 2008. Our net sales growth reflects a particularly strong year in retail cereal and a solid year in retail snacks, which helped to off-set the pressures we experienced in our food service business due to industry trends, and the supply disruption in our Eggo Waffle business. We continued to invest in our brands and we increased our up-front cost investments to $0.26 per share for the full-year compared with $0.14 per share in 2008. Our solid sales performance combined with our cost savings and productivity initiatives as well as moderating commodity inflation drove 10% internal operating profit growth for the year. This resulted in our full-year 2009 earnings per share of $3.16, a 6% increase on a reported basis and a 13% increase on a currency neutral basis.

As we said on our third quarter call, we expected below the line items to negatively impact our full-year and fourth quarter results. The primary drivers include full-year interest expense of $295 million, which includes the cost of the bond tender offer, completed in December 2009. This enabled us to refinance a portion of our 2011 bond maturity at an attractive interest rate. Impacting the other income and expense line was a charitable contribution in the fourth quarter. In addition, we took an approximate $0.02 hit to our earnings per share in the fourth quarter from the impact of Venezuela. The situation in Venezuela is changing rapidly. However profits from this business are only 1% to 2% of total company results and we think we are appropriately positioned. Partially off-setting these expenses we benefited from some discrete favorable tax items in 2009, lowering our tax rate to 28.2%.

On slide five we''ll walk through the components of our internal sales growth for the fourth quarter and full year. Year-over-year reported net sales for the full-year 2009 declined by 1.9%. On an internal basis net sales grew 3%. The following components contributed to our sales performance. Our tonnage declined by seven tenths of a point during the year. Much of this decline came from our continued transition away from low margin products in Russia and China and the Eggo supply disruption. This decline masks a strong volume performance in cereal. Price and mix contributed 3.7 points of growth to the business. Currency reduced our reported growth by 3.7 points and acquisitions increased our reported growth by a modest three tenths of a point. Also note that the 53rd week in the fourth quarter of 2008 impacted our reported sales growth unfavorably by 1.5% for the full year.

Each of our operating segments contributed to net sales growth for the year. Internal net sales for North America increased 2.8%. Europe rose 1.6% and Latin America grew 6.8%, while Asia Pacific improved by 5%. Our fourth quarter internal net sales grew approximately 2%.

Now, let''s turns to slide six to discuss cost pressures. As expected commodity prices moderated during the year, reducing our cost pressures and cost of goods sold to approximately 3%. This compares to much higher inflation rates of the past several years. Our ‘billion dollar plus’ challenge cost reduction initiatives combined with price execution early in the year more than offset these cost pressures in 2009, and improved our growth margin during the year. For 2010 we expect cost pressures to remain at approximately 3%. For 2009, our gross profit was $5.4 billion. On an internal basis our gross profit grew 6% for the year. Gross margin increased 100 basis points to 42.9% due to price increases as well as savings initiatives and cost of goods sold and these more than offset inflation and higher upfront costs.

Internal gross margin was up 120 basis points and if we exclude the impact of upfront costs, gross margin was up 160 basis points for the year. For 2010 we expect gross margin improvement of approximately 100 basis points. As you can see on slide eight, we have continued our commitment to reinvesting in our brands through advertising. It remains a key component of our business model and we believe essential to achieving our long-term goals. As we have said, we experienced media deflation in the year, lower prices combined with increased media efficiencies, and increased investment resulted in a significant increase in impressions. In 2010 we expect our advertising to grow at a higher rate than sales, even with expected media deflation in key markets.

Slide nine highlights our internal operating profit growth by area. Despite heavy investment in advertising and upfront costs, our North America business still delivered 11% internal operating profit growth. And in the fourth quarter North America internal operating profit increased by a healthy 25%. While Europe delivered moderate sales growth for the year both operating efficiencies and media deflation contributed to a strong 7% internal operating profit increase for the year. In the fourth quarter, Europe delivered 13% internal operation profit growth. Latin America showed strong internal sales growth for the year. However, internal operating profit declined by 2%. Significantly higher input costs and increased advertising contributed to the full-year decline. In addition, a December reduction in trade inventory impacted both full-year and the fourth quarter sales and profits. This trade inventory reduction increased advertising investment and higher upfront costs contributed to a 52% decline in internal operating profit for the fourth quarter, and in Asia Pacific internal operating profit increased by 14% for the full year driven by sales performance. However, increased advertising contributed to a 21% decline in fourth quarter internal operating profit.

Now, let''s turn to slide 10 to discuss cash flow. Managing for cash continues to be a key operating principle for Kellogg. We are focused on growing net earnings and remain disciplined about core working capital and our balance sheet. We delivered record cash flow of $1.27 billion in 2009. Our strong cash flow generation has given us flexibility to support our business and continue to return cash to shareholders.

Capital spending declined to 3% of net sales in 2009, versus 3.6% in 2008. As we said on our third quarter call, for 2010 we expect capital spending to be approximately $500 million at the high-end of our 3% to 4% range, driven by capacity increased our Eggo Waffle network and cost to re-implement SAP across our Americas'' businesses. Also in the fourth quarter we reduced our commercial papers significantly and took our net debt to one of the lowest of levels since the Keebler acquisition, providing us with a strong liquidity position. Given the potential for continued volatility in the economy we believe this position does very well for the future. For 2010 we expect our cash flow to be comparable to 2009, given the increase in capital spending.

In sum, we were pleased with our 2009 performance posting solid sales growth and effectively managing our cost structure, while at the same time increasing our investment in advertising and upfront costs. We posted a double digit increase in internal operating profit, invested in our future growth and improved our financial visibility. It was a very good year for Kellogg delivering high quality earnings in a very difficult economic environment, another year of sustainable and dependable performance.

Now let''s turn to slide 12 for our expectations for 2010. We remain confident in our ability to deliver another year of sustainable and dependable growth and we are raising our 2010 currency neutral EPS forecast. We expect to continue to drive volume and mix to grow internal net sales to 2% to 3%. Our focus on productivity and expected moderate inflationary environment and lower upfront cost should result in approximately 100 basis points of gross margin expansion. 2010 upfront investments are projected to be approximately $0.16 per share. About half of these costs are allocated to the K LEAN manufacturing initiative, while our upfront costs should help accelerate our internal operating profit growth to 8% to 10%, which is above our long-term targets. Below the line we expect interest expense to be in the range of $250 million to $260 million. Our effective tax rate is projected to be between 30% to 31%. Shares outstanding are expected to decline as we execute the remaining $463 million of the 2009 share repurchase authorization plus the $650 million we authorized for 2010. We expect to lower shares outstanding by 2% to 3% for 2010. Our guidance for earnings per share has increased and is now 11% to 13% growth on a currency neutral basis.

To understand the impact of foreign exchange on our 2009 results and in 2010, please turn to slide 13. As we discussed on previous calls, moving from currency neutral to reported earnings per share guidance requires us to estimate the impact of foreign exchange on our earnings per share performance. The full-year 2009 adverse impact of translational foreign exchange was $0.22 on EPS, up from our November estimate of $0.21.

Slide 13 shows our key current currencies for 2009 actual rates and current spot rates as of February 1, 2010. Based on these spot rates, foreign exchange is estimated to be flat compared with our earlier estimate of a favorable $0.08. Approximately one half of the change is related to the devaluation of the currency in Venezuela. As you are well aware foreign exchange is a moving target, so we are prepared to update you on the impact on a quarterly basis. And now I''d like to turn it over to John to discuss our business operations.

John A. Bryant – Chief Operating Officer

Thanks, Ron and good morning, everyone. We delivered strong results in 2009 and are well positioned to deliver another year of sustainable dependable performance in 2010. As you can see on slide 14, our 2009 North America internal sales grew 3% versus 6% last year. It was a particularly strong year for both retail cereal and snacks. However, weakness in frozen and food service, which I will address in a moment, dampened net sales for the year and particularly in the fourth quarter. As we look forward to 2010, we expect that North American sales growth will be in the low single digit range.

Let me discuss each business in greater detail beginning with cereal on slide 15. Treated cereal continues to be a strong category responding well to brand building, nutrition and innovation. Cereal is also great value and we have seen growth in all of our core markets around the world. By our estimate the (inaudible) cereal category in the U.S. grew around 2% to 3% for the quarter and approximately 3% for the full year. Our category share increased approximately 20 to 40 basis points for the quarter and 10 to 20 basis points for the year. We continue to drive growth and support for our top eight brands plus Kashi, which on a combined basis grew more than 7% in the quarter and even more for the full year.

Our North American Ready-To-Eat Cereal business delivered a healthy 4% internal net sales growth for the full year. It was up 6% for the quarter, driven by a double digit increase in advertising. In addition, to the growth in our large brands, there were two other factors which impacted our North American cereal shipments in the fourth quarter. Firstly, as we''ve mentioned before, we''ve continued to manage the tail of our portfolio axing On-the-Go and Straws because performance was not meeting expectations. Secondly, we did build our trade inventories at the end of the quarter, in preparation for January events. We believe about 2% of our fourth quarter North American cereal shipments was due to trade inventory. Our innovation and renovation pipeline is solid. Froot Loops and Apple Jacks with Fiber hit store shelves in August plus in Mini-Wheats, Little Bites, Original Flavor, Special K Granola and Cinnabon cereal will be introduced in the first quarter. Kashi is also introducing Go Lean Crisp and two new bare naked granolas. Kellogg Canada also continued to perform well in the cereal category with share growth for both the quarter and the year. Kashi''s performance was particularly strong in Canada. Turning to our North America snack business we posted a full-year internal net sales increase of 3% and 5% in the fourth quarter.

On slide 17 you can see that we achieved broad based growth across our North America snack business. Our Pop-Tart brand is performing well, delivering mid-single digital internal net sales growth for the year. Crackers grew mid-single digits for the year driven by another strong year from Cheez-Its. In the first quarter we are launching two new SKUs of Wheatables and Nut Crisps and two new SKUs of Cheez-Its. Cookies posted a slight gain for the year, driven by the fudge shoppe and mother''s brand, and we saw some softness in the fourth quarter due to heavy promotional activity and ranging. Within snacks our best performing category was wholesome snacks, which grew double-digits for the year and achieved strong share gains.

The introduction of FibrePlus, Special K Chocolaty Pretzel and Cinnabon bars helped drive wholesome snack growth for the year. Turning to the frozen and specially channels business we experienced a tough 2009. The negative trends in the food service industry and the Eggo supply disruption contributed to a 13% decline in the quarter, to finish the year down 1%. A combination of a flood and extensive enhancements and repairs at our Eggos'' facilities significantly impacted production in the second half of the year. While all of our plants are operational we have not been able to achieve previous capacity levels so demand continues to exceed supply. We are evaluating our inventory plans and working hard to increase capacity. However as a result of the supply disruption the impact on the top-line will continue through the first half of 2010 and the estimated impact is included in our 2010 guidance.

On a more positive note, Morningstar Farms Veggie Foods net sales grew over 3% for the year gaining over one share point. Kashi frozen meals grew over 10% for the year capturing almost 25% of the national organic meal category. Our Food Away From Home business posted lower sales for the year and the quarter, reflecting the weak economic environment and the impact that this has had on the food service industry. We don’t expect to see significant improvement in this business until the middle of 2010.


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