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Kellogg Company Q4 Earnings Call Transcript
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 1:28 AM ET February 16 2010


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Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets Corp

Okay thanks, and then one more quick one, if I could. At your analyst day in November you talked about a lot of SKU rationalization that took place in North America in 2009. I''m just trying to understand how to think about what that does from a sales comparison perspective and how much volume growth we might pick up in 2010, just given the fact that you''re lapping against that pruning from 2009?

A. D. David Mackay

Yeah, the pruning is basically from about mid-09 and will be completed by mid-10 so you''re going to have some impact in the first half. I don''t think major. And really as we look at that we think that was a very proactive move to try and simplify our portfolio as our retail partners are looking to simplify theirs and manage what was a complex and tough environment from their perspective. So, nothing major, a bit of an impact in the first half, but nothing worth really calling out.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets Corp

Thank you.

A. D. David Mackay

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.

Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs

Thanks, good morning everyone. Dave, I just wanted to go back to the question about the ad spending and the competitive dynamic, because in 2009 clearly you''ve talked about the efficiencies and the productivities that you''ve gained on the ad side and there''s a media deflation that''s helped you as well. But at the same time you''ve also seen some of your competitors really take spending up in a pretty significant way. So I''m just wondering, if you think about 2010 you talked about ad spending growing faster than sales growth, but how meaningful does ad spending maybe have to step up again, especially now that you''re lapping the media deflation that you probably got in 2009 as well?

A. D. David Mackay

Judy, firstly our view is in a couple of major markets we are going to see deflation, you know mid to high single digits. And that''s built into our expectations, so while advertising will be above sales our impressions will be significantly enhanced by that assumption that we''re very comfortable with. So again, when you look at the base dollar spends, if you take 2009, I mean you could add 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% from our dollar spend into our true impressions and therefore in-market impact, and likewise for 2010. That deflation is really going to help us get a lot more impressions for a much lower cost. Our view is that – I think strategic approach of investing behind your brands in this sort of market is clearly one that most other major branded companies have recognized support that they''re trying to catch up on.

Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs

I guess it''s more just on the relative spending side. Because I mean, clearly it seems like even with media deflation you''ve seen your competitors raise spending much more in 2009 and at the same time your sales growth sort of slowing down, albeit within your long term target, I mean you were doing internal sales growth mid to high single digits and it seems like that slowed down. And I''m wondering whether you think there''s any correlation to your ad spending not being as much up as maybe some of your competitors.

A. D. David Mackay

No, I don''t think so. I mean, you look at our performance on sort of the cereal category. We grew share for the year, we released share in the quarter. The category was strong so to the extent that other branded competitors are increasing their spend. That''s positive for the category. It''s not like you can just segment. You take your advertising up more than the other guy you''re going to get share, it''s a healthy thing for the category. It''s a positive dynamic for all of us in my view.

Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs

Okay, thank you.


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