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Market Update : 
Kellogg Company Q4 Earnings Call Transcript
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 1:28 AM ET February 16 2010


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A. D. David Mackay

I think the environment for 2010 probably we''ll see minimal pricing. It depends region to region of the world. We are seeing inflation at higher levels in some parts of the world than others like Latin American. But in general terms on a global basis I think there will be minimal pricing so you know volume and mix is going to be more important, but that''s why in essence we are giving guidance at our long term and top line range of 2% to 3%, low single digits.

Alex Patterson – RCM

Okay and then just Venezuela – you guys didn''t really spell out the impact for 2010 in terms of hyper-inflationary accounting.

Ronald Dissinger

We''re actually happy with our underlying business performance in Venezuela. It''s only 1% to 2% of our sales and profits as I mention before, we took a $0.02 hit in the fourth quarter. We did convert over to the parallel rate for translation of our sales and profits in 2010, and that has impacted our earnings per share performance and I commented on that in terms of the currency impact to earnings per share. It''s roughly half of the $0.08 we declined so approximately four pennies. Our underlying business performance, the internal growth will be just fine. We do expect growth in Venezuela over the course of 2010.

A. D. David Mackay

I think the only other comment on Venezuela is, you know it''s a volatile situation. We''re watching it carefully. We did have some display of disruptions to supply in the fourth quarter because there wasn''t electricity and all of the raw materials we needed we couldn''t necessarily access, so we''ve got a very strong watching brief on Venezuela and really to Ron''s point, it did take our FX upside to 10 which we saw would be $0.08 and wiped out $0.04 of it in moving to the parallel rate, but that''s all built into the guidance we''ve given today.

Alex Patterson – RCM

Great, thanks very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ed Aaron of RBC Capital Markets. Please state your question.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets Corp

Thanks for taking my question. In the North America cereal business, do you think it''s prudent to expect that sales there in the first quarter will be up year-over-year, just when you consider the inventory build in Q4, the full lapping of the price increases and then I think you also have a tougher market share comparison there. So I''m just trying to get a little bit more clarity on how you''d manage expectations just around, kind of next quarter.

A. D. David Mackay

We''d expect growth in the first quarter. It will be modest given the fact that we are pulling down our inventories from year end through the quarter so, I''m not going to give you a number, but modest growth.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets Corp

That''s helpful, thank you. And then on the Eggo waffle issue you mentioned the 1% to 2% sales impact in the fourth quarter. Would you be able to give us maybe a sort of a flow through assumption on that, just so we can get a better sense on what the EPS impact might have been on the quarter there?

A. D. David Mackay

No, we absorbed it into our results for 2009 and we''ve got it covered in 2010.


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