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Market Update : 
General Electric First Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 6:50 AM EDT April 13 2008


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Revenue climbed 8% to $42.24 billion from $39.20 billion, with global revenue up 22%.Earnings from continuing operations totaled $4.4 billion, or 44 cents per share, down 8% year-over-year. NBC Universal grew profits 3%, while health care earnings were hurt by continued regulatory shipping restrictions on surgical supplies. The company lowered its full-year outlook for earnings from continuing operations to between $2.20 and $2.30 per share.

 
Jeffrey Sprague (Citigroup): Can you give a sense of the size of the asset base subject to marks and impairments?

Keith S. Sherin: We have in the three categories about $700 million of public equities that are in a trading category that get marked to market through the P&L. The normal volatility on those securities has been plus or minus 10% and we just had one security that was down 45% from the end of the year to the first quarter, based on the Chinese stock market which is probably the biggest driver. That volatility was extraordinary. We have at all times around a $4 billion to $5 billion warehouse. Right now, it is about $4 billion of loans that we have originated to sell. It is a lower cost or market model. I think taking the mark somewhere from.95 cents down to between 85 and 89 cents, depending upon the security in the quarter was a dramatic move. Right now, that is above that, the index is above that mark so we will see where that goes. We have about $1.5 billion of retained interest in the commercial finance book related to the securitizations we have done. That is a mark. That is not a credit mark; that is a mark based on the fact that the yields investors expect for securities like this have risen and so the present value, the discounted cash flow came down and that is about $55 million in the quarter. the spreads widened from the end of the year from 400 basis points to 1,000 basis points, depending upon those securitizations on what we had to discount the cash flows by, so the dramatic mark-to-market there is totally based on the market conditions and basically as long as we hold those securities to maturity, we are going to earn that back. Those are the three categories. We do have a lot of investment securities in our insurance business. You have to evaluate those for impairment, whether they are other than temporarily impaired and we have always had unrealized gains and unrealized losses in those portfolios but these are the three categories that gave us the volatility this quarter.

Jeffrey R. Immelt: Those could go the other way but we are not counting on any improvements during the year.

Jeffrey Sprague (Citigroup): What your guidance assumes on provisioning, in money in particular but across the entire finance portfolio?

Keith S. Sherin: I would say that in commercial finance, we do have a plan that does have a higher losses. That outlook has not changed. In GE Money, the provisions are growing with asset growth globally but the main provision pressure point is the Americas. We have said at the beginning of the year and the end of last year, we are going to have about $600 million more provisions. This guidance does anticipate that that could be a couple hundred million more as we go through the year in the Americas. We saw about $200 million in the first quarter out of the 600, so we just based on the delinquencies and we will see where the consumer goes here. The guidance does contemplate that we could have more there.

Deane Dray (Goldman Sachs): On March 13th at that retail investor webcast, you did talk about reaffirming guidance and feeling as though the environment had not changed significantly and that was two weeks to go in the quarter. What you knew then and how did conditions change?

Jeffrey R. Immelt: We had the CC the week before that webcast. I had a chance to review in some detail what the businesses were doing. At that point in time, we still felt like we were on track for the quarter and for the year. We spent a lot of time thinking about those things. I think two days after the webcast, the weekend of the Bear Stearns situation took place. The last two weeks of March were a different world, particularly in financial services. I do not want this to be a company that is about excuses but I think the $500 million plus in commercial finance that we missed in the quarter fundamentally took place with the inability to do transactions in the last two weeks that we normally could get done and marks that basically we do at the end of the quarter that basically all went negative, and that is the vast majority of what we saw and what we experienced.

Deane Dray (Goldman Sachs): Looking forward for the expectation about the portfolio moves you are anticipating, including the sale of private label credit card, has the credit market conditions and prices that you think you could get as you shift out of GE Money into commercial finance, have those expectations changed both in the timing and valuations?

Jeffrey R. Immelt: There is a question investors could ask today about financial services vis-à-vis where it fits in GE, because the industrial businesses are strong and the financial businesses are not as strong as we would like to see. What I would say is that basically what we have done over the last few years is try to de-risk financial services by existing insurance, reinsurance, mortgage insurance, and we want to continue to do that to get to more of a debt spread and consistent model. We continue to drive along those lines. I think what the corporate card experience shows is that when you have got strategic buyers that like an asset that you can still have the beneficial transactions that take place in these markets. I feel good about the swap we are doing with Santander. I feel good about the AMEX transaction. We think that the PLCC is going to get a lot of interest because it is a unique asset and we plan to continue to do this throughout the year to redeploy at a higher return, de-risk the business and improve the overall perspective on what we have got in financial services.

Deane Dray (Goldman Sachs): How are you feeling about buy-backs?

Jeffrey R. Immelt: The buy-back and dividend remain intact and we will continue to look to see as we do additional transactions the best way to redeploy that capital.

Stephen Tusa (J.P. Morgan): Could you talk about the healthcare result?

Keith S. Sherin: We missed our guidance and in the miss of guidance is OEC that hurt us, about $50 million in revenue in the first quarter versus what we are planning on. Then DRA was worse than we expected. The U.S. DI revenue came in about 8 to 9 points below our plan. That is about $90 million of revenue. Then we also saw a spillover into some of the other businesses from the economy and into clinical systems and we saw community hospital orders down 18% in March, but they were impacted by some of their funding capability. But that was about $100 million of revenue versus our guidance. We had a revenue miss of about $250 million and that spilled into op profit miss at about a 50% contribution margin rating.

Robert Cornell (Lehman Brothers): You saw the increased financial stress at the second half of March. What have you seen so far in April in that regard?

Keith S. Sherin: We have concluded some of the real estate transactions that were hung up at the end, so those did execute. There are few indicators in the first two weeks that we see relative to the whole quarter. The leverage loan market marks that we saw are up over 90 cents, so we have seen a comeback in that since March that is one indicator. It is hard to say that we have seen a different environment than we saw in the second half of March.
I think the extraordinary volatility has definitely calmed down as you got to the end of March but it did not help us necessarily with some of the marks, Bob.

Robert Cornell (Lehman Brothers): If things started to unravel in the middle of March, you did not have lot of time to recast an annual result for a company as global and big as GE is. Can you take us through the re-planning process to help us understand how you got to the current guidance?

Jeffrey R. Immelt: We saw what happened at the end of March. We sat down and basically gone through with each one of our business teams a way to go through the quarter. With infrastructure, it is easy. You see nothing but strength. We can profile it. We look to see could they do more on the balance of the year. The commercial finance team is one of the strongest management teams in the company; we have got a lot of ways to look at the business. We went through fundamentally kind of what we have seen, which was harder than where we forecasted we would be in December and reprofiled the year.

Keith S. Sherin: In the first quarter, we are down 7 cents. We have got to deal with that reality. If you look at the second quarter, our midpoint of our guidance range would be 4 cents less than consensus, so at the half you are about 11 cents down, so from $2.42, that would get you to about $2.31. In the second half, we think we have got a range that deals with the volatility plus also one of the points you have raised is what happens to PLCC. In our guidance we have taken those 4 cents out for the year. Eventually that is going to happen. We have got to do a lot to execute that but why have to change later. We have tried to analyze what happened in the first quarter that does not repeat, what gets better as you go through the year and we have tried to risk reduce some of the areas where we had volatility that we were not able to recover from in that late March period and we have done that and taken some of these numbers out. We try to make sure that we are dealing with the downside but we are not laying down.

Robert Cornell (Lehman Brothers): What is the economic backdrop that you have used to frame this outlook?

Keith S. Sherin: In the case of infrastructure, this is primarily driven by global demand and then backlog. In the case of NBC and CNI and healthcare, we assume that the economy is going to be difficult and will remain such. The bottom end of that range would have it harder than it is today.

Jeffrey R. Immelt: In financial services, we have left one of the most difficult quarters in financial services, so we have got a run-rate that we can use to re-baseline, where financial services could be. We have been appropriately conservative in financial services.
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