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Market Update : 
Canadian National Railway Third Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 5:43 AM EDT October 25 2007


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Canadian National Railway Co.’s revenue fell to C$2.02 billion from C$2.03 billion last year. Revenue from forest products, the largest commodity group, fell 13% due to weak market conditions and mill closures. The stronger Canadian dollar not only affected forest products but also other businesses. A tax benefit of C$14 million, or 3 cents per share, helped sustain profits. Including gains from asset sales expected during Q4, the company expects earnings to grow by about 5 %.

 
Thomas Wadewitz (J.P. Morgan): Because of the pressures in fourth quarter you drive earnings down year-over-year in first quarter. How much of that continues in 2008 and is it reasonable to think that you will get good growth in 2008, or if conditions do not change your earnings will flatter down in 2008?

E. Hunter Harrison: This kind of environment is difficult to forecast. There are lots of questions going into 2008 which we are going to have to qualify.

Claude Mongeau: The unbalanced housing issues will not have too much contagious affect and we will be able to rebound at the soft landing in 2008, but you could see it going the other side. If the dollars stays at parity of it or above just that on a Canadian dollar reported EPS basis is a headwind of 5% that we have to face. We are cautious about next year. We think we can come in with the EPS growth if the economy holds up. Is it going to be a double-digit, probably not, is it going to be a high single-digit, at this juncture we are not providing a high or formal guidance, we like to wait and see what the economy does and provide more color at the first quarter earnings call.

Thomas Wadewitz (J.P. Morgan): Are there places on cost side where if volumes do not pick up you can push harder on headcount or are there other areas you can pull a time lag, you can go after it even harder on the cost side?

E. Hunter Harrison: There are such areas. The J acquisition and the capital investment we are making amidst over the last two years give us a lot of savings in the U.S. internal operation. It will give us car velocity improvements. There is a continuing initiative with siding initiatives in further in western Canada. Keith Creel is looking on some issues and reroute the traffic between east and west. We have got distributed power coming on with locomotives where we can sustain longer trains coat in colder weather. We have got some air repeater cars so there are a lot initiatives and this operating group shines the greatest when times are the hardest.

Thomas Wadewitz (J.P. Morgan): On the Preentroopers forecast in May there was some enthusiasm, you achieved 500,000 TEU in 2008. You mentioned the Hangen doing some volume on the COSCO ships. Do you think that is still possibility in 2008 or how would you characterize 500,000 TEU go for Rupert innovated in terms of your outlook now?

Claude Mongeau: The guidance we have provided is that we would have C$100 million of new revenues in the first 12 months so there is what we are anticipating beginning in October, in addition to that we had hoped to have the remainder of the capacity sold out at Prince Rupert. What I have also said is that we need one more big customer in there to have that capacity sold out, and I would hope that we would get that sooner than later. We still have interest and if we get that customer signed at sooner than later it will be additive to their C$100 million in the first 12 months.

Walter Spracklin (RBC Capital Markets): Is it first quarter next year when you would expect to come out with your early guidance?

Claude Mongeau: Yes.

Walter Spracklin (RBC Capital Markets): There was a shift from Halifax to Montreal. Is this shift a permanent thing, part of a longer term trend or you are still optimistic with respect to he Halifax as a part?

James M. Foote: Halifax has a great potential and we continue to market it aggressively with the new port players out there. We have owners of the terminals and the port authority etcetera, so we think it has got great potential. This shift from Halifax to Montreal is a result of industry consolidation, one steamship company buying another steamship company and taking advantage of certain different routings of all sorts, so no long-term implications.

Walter Spracklin (RBC Capital Markets): Are there any problems at Halifax?

E. Hunter Harrison: There is no problem. It is well run port and there have been new investor investments by new players into that. We are optimistic about the port of Halifax, as more and more trade with North America comes through the Suez, as manufacturing picks up in India. Other people are currently looking at developing new port facilities on the East Coast because they do not believe that Halifax is going to have the capacity to accommodate the growth.

Walter Spracklin (RBC Capital Markets): Prince Rupert is getting up to full capacity through the year. Are you considering any options in terms of the strategy used?

E. Hunter Harrison: We do not see any reason to change our marketing strategy and we believe that we have a premium product, a gateway on the West Coast of North America that does not exist anywhere else and we are going to continue to market our product just as we have.

Ken Hoexter (Merrill Lynch): What happens if the dollar actually gets worse on volumes?

E. Hunter Harrison: We think that the dollar has run up ahead of its fundamentals and it should pull back. The reverse is also a possibility and one could argue that it would move to C$1.05 in exchange rate. The issue that we face then is straightforward from a conversion standpoint. For every penny that the Canadian dollar appreciates, we lose about 2 cents of EPS. The harder call is what happens to the number of manufacturers, our customers, and the people who are selling into the U.S. markets. It is hard for the dollar; it is a lot harder at C$1.05 or C$1.10. You would see more casualties and we will have to be more nimble to work with our customers in that environment. We think what you are going to see is the Canadian dollar gradually coming back to more reasonable levels.

Ken Hoexter (Merrill Lynch): In case this does head in this direction, are you then talking about mostly cross-border traffic, and which businesses you see impacted more than others?

E. Hunter Harrison: By the time it gets to C$1.05 we will be looking at business that is south-north and shipping Budweiser into Canada. If you see the dollar go much higher like that, it is going to be produced somewhere in North America. If it is not produced in Canada, the chances are it might be produced in U.S., you can stuff that U.S. over the Canada instead of vice versa. There is the point where manufacturers can only survive so long in that kind of environment.

Ken Hoexter (Merrill Lynch): At Port Valley Long Beach volumes and the imports were down 1% last month. If you continue to see loose capacity at the Port Valley Long Beach, does it make it less likely for you to be able to get that upside to your 100 million target in getting a second committed customer?
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