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Market Update : 
Blue Nile Third Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Albena Toncheva
123jump.com
Last Update: 12:52 PM EST November 09 2007


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The online jewelry retailer said that its quarterly profit rose 66.7% from a year ago, as international sales, representing Blue Nile’s Canada and UK web sites, jumped 104.5% from a year ago to $4.5 million. Revenue rose 21% from a year ago to $67.4 million, while expenses jumped 18% to $9.7 million. For the fourth quarter the company forecasts earnings of between 40 cents and 45 cents per share, on revenue of between $109 and $115 million.

 
Diane Irvine: In terms of inventory growth, as you look at mix shifting over time, it''s a slow shift. In the past several years it''s been 2 percentage points a year, where the mix shifts towards non-engagement. In terms of what happens there, a portion of that non-engagement business is also driven by diamonds, where we are not holding those in inventory, so very favorable working capital characteristics there.

Then as you look at other items that we are holding in inventory, we have great payment terms and very fast turns of that inventory, such that really across the board for any product at Blue Nile, we have negative working capital. I think the inventory growth is not always able to be predicted based upon the revenue growth. But I think we feel that we have very favorable dynamics there and that will continue.

Kristine Koerber (JMP Securities): Lastly on the expenses, the SG&A margin, can you just elaborate on what really drove the margin so much lower this quarter?

Diane Irvine: If you look across the board at SG&A, we are very efficient. I think we tend to run lean and are disciplined in our cost management. So if you look there in terms of people, professional services, our marketing is very efficient across the board throughout the business. We have been great at managing our costs and getting more purchasing power. That''s in a lot of areas, not just in that cost of goods area. That''s what you are seeing there. In terms of profitability, the gross margin growth that we are seeing is an additional benefit there.

Analyst for Imran Khan ((JP Morgan)): A question about holiday sales. Are you expecting non-engagement sales to trend, given the tightening economy? Have you seen any changes in competition domestically from people such as Amazon for holiday season?

Diane Irvine: In terms of holiday trend, as we have started the quarter we are seeing very strong momentum. In terms of consumer spending or what you see more broadly, we have always said we don''t exactly know. There''s a very strong argument that when you look at engagement, that is less discretionary. I can only point to what we''re seeing, which is great strength in the business, even stronger at the beginning of the fourth quarter I''d say than what we saw in the third quarter. Of course, we are taking share, so we are a bit different than you see in retail broadly. But we feel very optimistic today in that we are well positioned for the holiday season.

In terms of competition, every quarter we get ahead of the competition. Our international business is larger than any of the US competitors in terms of engagement online.

Mark Mahaney (Citi Investment Research): Could you provide more detail on that traffic growth year over year? Could you give us some context versus what the traffic growth was the last couple of quarters, or maybe divide that between US traffic growth and international traffic growth? Then, on the share buybacks, you seem like you almost have a cash problem. You are generating so much cash. You haven''t bought back stock the last two quarters. You have something of a CapEx ramp this year for international expansion. You probably don''t need that kind of CapEx level next year.

Mark Vadon: On traffic, the international doesn''t come much into play there. The amount of traffic coming off the international sites is very small right now. We have been experiencing traffic levels in the mid-teens and up all year long. There are months when it''s higher, months when it''s lower, but overall it''s been very strong. Those rates of traffic growth are stronger than we saw the last couple of years.

If you go back to 2005 and 2006, we were driving growth in the business more from the conversion side than the traffic side. Now that has flipped over where we are now able to drive a lot stronger traffic than we have previously.

We continue to work on improving our conversion. So one of the things we have been very excited about, we''ve been working hard behind the scenes on the new website. That was just launched days ago. Overall, what we are going to try to be doing here is just continuing to drive that level of traffic growth and convert it better and better. But as far as the top level of traffic that we are driving it seems like, if anything, in the marketing environment out there, it''s getting easier to drive qualified traffic instead of harder right now.

Diane Irvine: In terms of our cash position and buybacks, we certainly plan to continue to use the buyback program as a strategic means to deliver value to shareholders. We have bought back 15% of our outstanding shares to date, and we have operated that program to try to be opportunistic. We''ll continue to be thoughtful there and do the right thing for shareholders, and we will clearly look at that as a program through which to do that.
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