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Jump Analysis: 
Weaker-Than-Expected December Sales
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 10:02 AM EST January 11 2008



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The holiday shopping season turned out to be even worse than expected for most retailers. The results provoked worries about consumer spending and the overall economy health. A number of companies put knife to their bottom-line forecasts, among them AnnTaylor Stores, Mothers Work and Chico''s FAS. Wal-Mart Stores was among the few exceptions with sales at the higher end of expectations. The discount sector enjoyed the best numbers, with same-store sales up 2.1%.

 
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: chart) was among the few exceptions with sales at the higher end of expectations. The company recorded 2.4% higher U.S. same-store sales, excluding fuel and had earlier forecasted a 1% to 3% growth.

The company also backed its fourth-quarter earnings outlook of 99 cents to $1.03 per share. Wal-Mart now expects its overall U.S. same-store sales to grow about 2% in January.

Costco Wholesale (COST: chart) enjoyed a 7% jump in December same-store sales and beat the estimates. The company recorded 5% higher sales in the U.S., one percentage point of which came in thanks to the climbing gasoline prices. Internationally, same-store advanced 16% on the decline in the U.S. dollar.

Buckle Inc. (BKE: chart) was also among the few advancers with a 19% surge in December same-store sales, beating even the robust views for a 10% jump.

Wet Seal (WTSLA: chart) gain of 0.6% and the company’s lifted outlook came as a surprise to analysts. Gymboree Corp. (GYMB: chart) also boosted their fourth-quarter profit forecast.

In the list of shakers, Limited Inc. (LTD: chart) posted a 8% decline in same-store sales last month, doubling the expected drop views. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected at the lower half of the earlier guidance range of 90 cents to $1.05 a share.

Target Corp. (TGT: chart) suffered a 5% decline, double the drop predicted by analysts. The firm warned earlier that December comps on a calendar-adjusted basis are expected to range from down 1% to up 1% and given that, sales fell 0.6%.

Among department stores, Saks Inc. had an expected decline of 2.5% but reported a 0.8% increase for December. Macy''s (M: chart) sales slumped 7.9%, lower than the company''s estimates of a 4% to 7% decline. J.C. Penney Co. (JCP: chart) posted a 7.5% decrease and added that it sees fiscal fourth-quarter earnings at the lower end of forecasts.

Gap Inc. reported a wider-than-anticipated 6% drop in same-store sales, with the weakest link being its namesake North American stores, which posted a 9% decline.

Upscale department store retailer Nordstrom Inc. (JWN: chart) posted a same-store sales drop of 4%, slightly above expectations for a 4.2% percent decline.

AnnTaylor (AN: chart) posted a 9.4% decline in same-store sales and slashed its fourth-quarter earnings projections.

Men's Wearhouse (MW: chart) issued its mid-quarter update of earnings per share forecast for the fourth quarter ending Feb. 2, 2008. The company’s GAAP diluted EPS estimate is now in the range of 16 cents to 18 cents. Full Year 2007 GAAP diluted EPS are expected to be in a range of $2.60 to $2.62. The company’s earlier outlook called for 43 cents to 48 cents for the fourth quarter and $2.87 to $2.92 for the fiscal year.

The lower December traffic levels at all of the company's retail stores, in both the US and Canada, were to blame for the softer same-store sales numbers. The company expects continued weak traffic trends for January. Excluding occupancy expenses, gross profit as a percentage of total sales is forecasted to meet the initial quarterly plans.

The largest U.S. bookseller Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS: chart) cut its profit forecast for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal 2007 on weaker sales during the holidays. The firm now forecasts fourth-quarter earnings per share between $1.57 and $1.76.

Earlier, Barnes & Noble had forecasted earnings between $1.67 and $1.86 per share. For the year, the company now sees EPS at $1.81 to $1.99, down from its earlier guidance of $1.91 to $2.09. During the holiday selling period of nine weeks ended January 5th, the company's same-store sales lost 0.4% hurt by weaker-than-expected recorded music sales. Total store sales in the holiday weeks increased 4.1% to $1.2 billion.


2007 SAME-STORE SALES
Company Ticker April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Apparel Retailers
Abercrombie & Fitch ANF -15.00% -5.00% 2.00% -4.00% 6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 2.00% -2.00%
Aeropostale ARO -14.00% 1.90% 0.00% -11.90% 1.7% 1.30% 3.00% 6.00% 12.20%
AmericanEagle AEOS -10.00% 5.00% 8.00% -6.00% 9.00% -2.00% -3.00% 0.00% -2.00%
AnnTaylor ANN -12.80% -4.60% -8.40% -5.00% 2.9% 0.50% -4.20% 3.90% -9.40%
Bebe BEBE -9.00% -3.00% -5.40% -6.30% NA NA NA NA NA
Buckle BKE 1.80% 8.80% 13.30% 7.60% 16.7% 10.90% 14.90% 18.20% 18.70%
Cato CTR -21.00% 2.00% 0.00% -5.00% 2.00% -7.00% -8.00% -6.00% -8.00%
Chico's CHS -7.00% -2.90% -7.30% -6.70% -9.3% -8.30% -10.60% -13.70% -13.70%
Children'sPlace, The PLCE -2.00% 4.00% -4.00% -1.00% 5.00% -3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00%
Christopher & Banks CBK -12.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 1.00% 22.00% 1.00% -1.00%
CitiTrends CTRN NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Claires CLE -6.00% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
DebShops DEBS -4.70% 0.20% 1.90% -2.00% 0.2% -3.80% NA NA NA
Dillards DDS -14.00% -2.00% -1.00% -6.00% -5.00% -7.00% -7.00% 1.00% -5.00%
DressBarn DBRN -6.00% NA 2.00% 3.00% NA NA NA NA
NA
Macy's Inc. FD -2.20% -3.30% -2.70% -1.40% 2.4% -2.70% -1.50% 13.40% -7.90%
Gap GPS -16.00% -3.00% -5.00% -7.00% -1.00% -7.00% -8.00% 0.00% -6.00%
Gottschalks GOT -5.40% -3.80% -5.80% -3.90% -7.8% -3.90% -3.00% 0.40% -13.80%
Gymboree GYMB -5.00% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hot Topic HOTT -9.10% -6.10% -4.00% -7.40% -1.1% -2.90% -4.00% -8.30% -6.20%
J.C.Penney JCP 0.00% -2.00% -1.50% 14.00% -4.00% -4.60% -1.80% 2.60% -7.50%
Jo-AnnStores JAS NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Jos.A.Bank JOSB 7.30% 13.50% 0.40% -6.40% 7.7% 1.40% 1.80% 15.00% 2.00%
Kohl's KSS -10.50% 10.50% -4.90% 0.00% 0.00% -3.20% -3.80% 10.20% -11.40%
LimitedBrands LTD -1.00% 2.00% 3.00% -3.00% -0.6% -4.00% -6.00% -7.00% -8.00%
MotherWorks MWRK -14.80% -3.60% -5.40% -9.40% -3.7% -7.00% -3.90% 0.00% -7.60%
Nordstrom JWN 3.10% 6.30% 2.00% 9.40% 6.00% 3.20% -2.40% 8.70% -4.00%
Pacific Sunwear PSUN -6.50% 6.40% 4.50% -4.60% 9.6% 2.70% -0.80% 2.30% -2.80%
RossStores ROST -7.00% 1.00% 4.00% 1.00% 4.00% 0.00% -1.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Saks SKS 11.70% 37.50% -5.60% 14.90% 18.2% 7.70% 10.60% 25.70% 0.80%
SteinMart SMRT -13.90% 2.50% -2.90% -3.40% -5.2% -9.10% -3.80% -8.90% -5.70%
TJX TJX -1.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 7.00% 3.00%
Drug Stores
CVS CVS 6.10% 6.20% 5.40% NA 1.00% 5.00% 4.60% 4.40% 1.80%
Walgreen WAG 9.20% 6.40% 5.10% 7.20% 6.5% 4.70% 6.90% 4.40% 2.60%
Wholesale Stores
BJ's Wholesale Club BJ -2.10% 4.10% 5.30% 1.50% 1.4% 3.90% 4.80% 7.70% 3.00%
Costco COST 7.00% 7.00% 6.00% 7.00% 2.00% 6.00% 9.00% 9.00% 7.00%
Family Dollar FDO -4.90% 2.50% 1.50% 0.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -3.40% -0.70%
Discount Retailers
Target TGT -6.10% 5.80% 3.30% 6.10% 6.1% 1.20% 4.10% 10.80% -5.00%
Wal-Mart Stores WMT -3.50% 1.10% 2.40% 1.90% 3.1% 0.80% 0.40% 1.50% 2.40%
Pier1 Imports PIR NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sharper Image SHRP -11.00% -8.00% -7.00% -15.00% -16.00% -21.00% -8.00% -8.00% -10.00%
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