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Jump Analysis: 
Robust Retail Sales
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 1:02 PM EDT October 06 2006



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Same-store sales rose on back-to-school purchases, falling gas prices, and unfavorable weather conditions. A number of retailers posted better-than-expected gains, while Wal-Mart was a notable exception. Department stores and teen retailers like Federated Department Stores, J.C. Penney and Nordstrom posted solid gains, while discount retailer struggled.

 
Sales at stores open at least one year notably advanced in September, buoyed by back-to-school purchases, falling gas prices, and unfavorable weather conditions. A number of retailers posted better-than-expected gains, while Wal-Mart was a notable exception. The strong gains prompted many retailers to raise their Q3 earnings forecast.

Overall, same-store sales advanced by 3.8%, or up 5.1% excluding Wal-Mart Store. Wal-Mart (WMT: chart) said September sales rose at 1.3%, below the 2.1% rise expected by the analysts. Company’s total sales increased 12% to $31.21 billion. Costco Wholesale (COST: chart) posted a 4% same-store sales rise, below estimates. In contrast, Target (TGT: chart) posted same-store sales increase of 6.7%, exceeding estimates of 5% growth. Starbucks (SBUX: chart) posted a better-than-forecast 6% monthly sales increase. Pier 1 (PIR: chart) posted a 10.1% decline in same-store sales in September, worse than the 7.7% growth expected.

Department store and teen retailers posted strong sales in September, helped by strong fashion and cooler temperatures. Nordstrom (JWN: chart) reported a 13% gain in same-store sales, beating the 3.8% projection. Saks (SKS: chart) reported a 10%t increase in same-store sales, above the 3.8% estimate. J.C. Penney (JCP: chart) rebounded in September with a 10.2% gain in same-store sales, better than the 5.2% estimate. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF: chart) had a 10% gain in same-store sales, higher than the 5.5% estimate. Federated Department Stores Inc. (FD: chart) said same-store sales rose 6.2%, above the 5.5% estimate. Limited Brands Inc.''s (LTD: chart) same-store sales jumped 12%, much better than the 7.7% analysts anticipated.

The laggards included Gap Inc. and Pier 1 Imports Inc., whose sales continue to languish. Pier 1 (PIR: chart) posted a 10.1% decline in same-store sales in September, worse than the 7.7% growth expected. Gap (GPS: chart) posted a 3% drop in same-store sales, though better than the 3.6% decline that analysts projected.





2006 SAME-STORE SALES
CompanyTickerSeptemberAugest July JuneMayAprilMarch
Apparel Retailers
Abercrombie & FitchANF10.00%6.00%3.00%-4.00%3.00%6.50%31.00%
AeropostaleARO8.50%3.30%-1.90%5.30%-1.10%8.40%-9.30%
AmericanEagleAEOS19.00%11.00%7.00%11.00%11.00%19.00%3.00%
AnnTaylorANN5.80%1.90%5.10%12.50%12.00%10.90%0.80%
BebeBEBE15.30%12.50%10.00%3.50%1.60%5.70%4.10%
BuckleBKE8.70%-8.50%5.90%-5.90%-3.80%1.00%-3.70%
CatoCTR3.00%4.00%1.00%-3.00%-2.00%2.00%-4.00%
CharmingShoppesCHRSNANANANANANANA
Chico'sCHS2.10%-2.60%4.90%5.10%7.20%5.40%8.40%
Children'sPlace, ThePLCE20.00%12.00%15.00%14.00%18.00%22.00%6.00%
Christopher & BanksCBK9.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%8.00%13.00%-6.00%
CitiTrendsCTRN8.30%13.70%7.70%4.30%10.80%21.00%12.80%
ClairesCLE1.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%-3.00%
DebShopsDEBS6.80%-7.70%-9.60%-4.90%1.40%4.00%-1.10%
DillardsDDS0.00% -1.00%-3.00%-1.00%3.00%2.00%-1.00%
DressBarnDBRN13.00%2.00%5.00%6.00%9.00%15.00%2.00%
Federated Dept.FD6.20%3.80%3.30%1.70%9.20%-0.80% 1.00%
GapGPS-3.00%-7.00%-4.00%-6.00%-6.00%-3.00%13.00%
GottschalksGOT1.00%-1.10%-0.70%0.30%2.80% 0.30%-3.60%
GuessGES11.30%4.00%10.70%11.70%20.00%22.60%8.10%
GymboreeGYMB 20.00% 17.00% 6.00% 9.00%24.00% 19.00%10.00%
Hot TopicHOTT-7.30%-6.00%-5.50%-3.40%-6.00%-6.50%-12.70%
J.C. Penney JCP3.80%-0.50%3.60% 4.30% 11.10% 2.60%-1.00%
Jo-AnnStoresJAS -3.60%-2.90%-6.60%8.50%-4.20%-5.40%-3.10%
Jos.A.BankJOSB2.70%-6.10%15.90%8.50%7.10%17.80%4.40%
Kohl'sKSS16.30%5.20%5.90%7.10%3.10%13.40%3.70%
LimitedBrandsLTD12.00%9.00%5.00% 3.00%7.00% 2.00% 5.00%
Men'sWearhouse MWNANA2.00%3.70%5.00% 8.80%0.90%
MotherWorks MWRK 10.60% 5.00% 3.90%6.20%5.50% 6.60%2.20%
Nordstrom JWN13.40%7.10%5.30%6.90% 7.80%7.30%2.20%
Pacific Sunwear PSUN-2.40%-9.40%-10.60%-2.70%-2.60%-14.00%-10.90%
Ross Stores ROST6.00%3.00% 1.00% 5.00% 5.00% 9.00%4.00%
Saks SKS10.00%3.30% 2.40%4.70%1.10%2.20% -6.60%
SteinMart SMRT4.80%-2.80%-5.90%0.90%1.00%NANA
TalbotsTLB-5.10%3.00%1.30%NANA10.80%-3.40%
TJXTJX 9.00% 4.00% 4.00%4.00% 4.00% 1.00%2.00%
Drug Stores
CVSCVS 5.70% 8.90% 8.80% NA 8.40% 14.00%9.40%
WalgreenWAG8.50% 10.60%9.00% 9.00% 9.80% 2.00% 1.40%
Wholesale Stores
BJ's Wholesale Club BJ-0.90%2.30%1.90%-0.10%4.20% 2.10%3.10%
CostcoCOST 4.00% 8.00%7.00%6.00%10.00% 7.00%7.00%
Family Dollar FDO 2.20% 4.00%7.50%3.60% 4.50% 5.90%1.40%
Shoe Stores
DSWDSWNA2.00%2.20%NANA4.20%NA
Payless Shoesource PSSNANA 2.20%NANANANA
FinishLineFINLNA-6.60NANA-0.80%NANA
Discount Retailers
TargetTGT6.70%2.80%3.00% 4.80%5.70%10.40%2.20%
Wal-Mart Stores WMT1.30%2.70% 2.40%1.20%2.30%6.80% 1.40%
Pier1 Imports PIR-10.10% -9.10%-14.90%-18.40%-6.60%-2.00%-2.00%
Sharper ImageSHRP-21.00%-22.00%-23.00%-26.00%-36.00%-23.00%-29.00%
Miscellaneous
BigLotsBLI -1.40%NA5.20%NANANANA
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