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Jump Analysis: 
Robust Retail Sales
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 1:02 PM EDT October 06 2006



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Sales at stores open at least one year notably advanced in September, buoyed by back-to-school purchases, falling gas prices, and unfavorable weather conditions. A number of retailers posted better-than-expected gains, while Wal-Mart was a notable exception. The strong gains prompted many retailers to raise their Q3 earnings forecast.

Overall, same-store sales advanced by 3.8%, or up 5.1% excluding Wal-Mart Store. Wal-Mart (WMT) said September sales rose at 1.3%, below the 2.1% rise expected by the analysts. Company’s total sales increased 12% to $31.21 billion. Costco Wholesale (COST) posted a 4% same-store sales rise, below estimates. In contrast, Target (TGT) posted same-store sales increase of 6.7%, exceeding estimates of 5% growth. Starbucks (SBUX) posted a better-than-forecast 6% monthly sales increase. Pier 1 (PIR) posted a 10.1% decline in same-store sales in September, worse than the 7.7% growth expected.

Department store and teen retailers posted strong sales in September, helped by strong fashion and cooler temperatures. Nordstrom (JWN) reported a 13% gain in same-store sales, beating the 3.8% projection. Saks (SKS) reported a 10%t increase in same-store sales, above the 3.8% estimate. J.C. Penney (JCP) rebounded in September with a 10.2% gain in same-store sales, better than the 5.2% estimate. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) had a 10% gain in same-store sales, higher than the 5.5% estimate. Federated Department Stores Inc. (FD) said same-store sales rose 6.2%, above the 5.5% estimate. Limited Brands Inc.''s (LTD) same-store sales jumped 12%, much better than the 7.7% analysts anticipated.

The laggards included Gap Inc. and Pier 1 Imports Inc., whose sales continue to languish. Pier 1 (PIR) posted a 10.1% decline in same-store sales in September, worse than the 7.7% growth expected. Gap (GPS) posted a 3% drop in same-store sales, though better than the 3.6% decline that analysts projected.





2006 SAME-STORE SALES
CompanyTickerSeptemberAugest July JuneMayAprilMarch
Apparel Retailers
Abercrombie & FitchANF10.00%6.00%3.00%-4.00%3.00%6.50%31.00%
AeropostaleARO8.50%3.30%-1.90%5.30%-1.10%8.40%-9.30%
AmericanEagleAEOS19.00%11.00%7.00%11.00%11.00%19.00%3.00%
AnnTaylorANN5.80%1.90%5.10%12.50%12.00%10.90%0.80%
BebeBEBE15.30%12.50%10.00%3.50%1.60%5.70%4.10%
BuckleBKE8.70%-8.50%5.90%-5.90%-3.80%1.00%-3.70%
CatoCTR3.00%4.00%1.00%-3.00%-2.00%2.00%-4.00%
CharmingShoppesCHRSNANANANANANANA
Chico'sCHS2.10%-2.60%4.90%5.10%7.20%5.40%8.40%
Children'sPlace, ThePLCE20.00%12.00%15.00%14.00%18.00%22.00%6.00%
Christopher & BanksCBK9.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%8.00%13.00%-6.00%
CitiTrendsCTRN8.30%13.70%7.70%4.30%10.80%21.00%12.80%
ClairesCLE1.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%-3.00%
DebShopsDEBS6.80%-7.70%-9.60%-4.90%1.40%4.00%-1.10%
DillardsDDS0.00% -1.00%-3.00%-1.00%3.00%2.00%-1.00%
DressBarnDBRN13.00%2.00%5.00%6.00%9.00%15.00%2.00%
Federated Dept.FD6.20%3.80%3.30%1.70%9.20%-0.80% 1.00%
GapGPS-3.00%-7.00%-4.00%-6.00%-6.00%-3.00%13.00%
GottschalksGOT1.00%-1.10%-0.70%0.30%2.80% 0.30%-3.60%
GuessGES11.30%4.00%10.70%11.70%20.00%22.60%8.10%
GymboreeGYMB 20.00% 17.00% 6.00% 9.00%24.00% 19.00%10.00%
Hot TopicHOTT-7.30%-6.00%-5.50%-3.40%-6.00%-6.50%-12.70%
J.C. Penney JCP3.80%-0.50%3.60% 4.30% 11.10% 2.60%-1.00%
Jo-AnnStoresJAS -3.60%-2.90%-6.60%8.50%-4.20%-5.40%-3.10%
Jos.A.BankJOSB2.70%-6.10%15.90%8.50%7.10%17.80%4.40%
Kohl'sKSS16.30%5.20%5.90%7.10%3.10%13.40%3.70%
LimitedBrandsLTD12.00%9.00%5.00% 3.00%7.00% 2.00% 5.00%
Men'sWearhouse MWNANA2.00%3.70%5.00% 8.80%0.90%
MotherWorks MWRK 10.60% 5.00% 3.90%6.20%5.50% 6.60%2.20%
Nordstrom JWN13.40%7.10%5.30%6.90% 7.80%7.30%2.20%
Pacific Sunwear PSUN-2.40%-9.40%-10.60%-2.70%-2.60%-14.00%-10.90%
Ross Stores ROST6.00%3.00% 1.00% 5.00% 5.00% 9.00%4.00%
Saks SKS10.00%3.30% 2.40%4.70%1.10%2.20% -6.60%
SteinMart SMRT4.80%-2.80%-5.90%0.90%1.00%NANA
TalbotsTLB-5.10%3.00%1.30%NANA10.80%-3.40%
TJXTJX 9.00% 4.00% 4.00%4.00% 4.00% 1.00%2.00%
Drug Stores
CVSCVS 5.70% 8.90% 8.80% NA 8.40% 14.00%9.40%
WalgreenWAG8.50% 10.60%9.00% 9.00% 9.80% 2.00% 1.40%
Wholesale Stores
BJ's Wholesale Club BJ-0.90%2.30%1.90%-0.10%4.20% 2.10%3.10%
CostcoCOST 4.00% 8.00%7.00%6.00%10.00% 7.00%7.00%
Family Dollar FDO 2.20% 4.00%7.50%3.60% 4.50% 5.90%1.40%
Shoe Stores
DSWDSWNA2.00%2.20%NANA4.20%NA
Payless Shoesource PSSNANA 2.20%NANANANA
FinishLineFINLNA-6.60NANA-0.80%NANA
Discount Retailers
TargetTGT6.70%2.80%3.00% 4.80%5.70%10.40%2.20%
Wal-Mart Stores WMT1.30%2.70% 2.40%1.20%2.30%6.80% 1.40%
Pier1 Imports PIR-10.10% -9.10%-14.90%-18.40%-6.60%-2.00%-2.00%
Sharper ImageSHRP-21.00%-22.00%-23.00%-26.00%-36.00%-23.00%-29.00%
Miscellaneous
BigLotsBLI -1.40%NA5.20%NANANANA
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Sources: Data collected by 123jump.com and Ticker.com from company press releases, filings and corporate websites.
Market data: BATS Exchange. Inc.

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