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Jump Analysis: 
Retail Sales Post a Weak 2% Gain in October
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 9:08 AM EST November 7 2007



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Retail sales posted a 0.2% increase, the weakest numbers since August, reflecting a 0.5% decline in department stores sales, where retailers were hurt by the warmer weather that slowed the winter clothing sales. Teen and young-adult retailers posted generally weak growth in October same-stores sales, again hurt by weather and regional weakness.

 
Retailers recorded a second straight month of weak sales growth for October as abnormally warm weather slowed the sales of cold-weather goods. Same-store retail sales advanced 1.7% from a year earlier for about 50 retailers posting monthly numbers. October results are up slightly from the 1.3% sales-weighted composite last month and down from the 3.2% composite reported a year ago.

October numbers were slowed by weak numbers at apparel and accessory stores, department stores and discount department stores. The results reported at warehouse clubs and drugstores were stronger than average. Many retailers blamed the warmer October weather and a moderation in consumer spending that resulted from the housing market slump, growing energy costs, and the mortgage market uncertainty which helped consumer confidence decline.

Department stores, excluding Saks (SKS: chart) which recorded a 10.6% increase, posted poor results, while discount-oriented stores and wholesalers like Costco (COST: chart), BJ''s Wholesale (BJ: chart) and Target (TGT: chart) enjoyed stronger demand.

The action apparel retailer Zumiez (ZUMZ: chart) posted weaker-than-expected 5.1% same-store sales increase for October and added that it expects third-quarter and fiscal-year earnings to miss analysts’ estimates.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF: chart) same-store sales fell 2% from a year ago. The company’s flagship stores same-store sales grew 2%. At the A&F stores, transactions per store remained unchanged from a year ago and average transaction value rose 12%.

Aeropostale (ARO: chart) posted a 3% same-store sales gain and also lifted its earnings outlook. The company enjoyed strength in women’s and men’s denim and fleece, women’s knit tops and men’s graphics, offset by weaker sales in women’s sweaters and pants.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO: chart) same-store sales declined 3%. Women’s experienced a high single digit decline, but the chain saw stronger sales of woven shirts, tanks and camis.

Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN: chart) slightly increased its quarterly earnings forecast despite posting a surprise drop in October same-store sales.


2007 SAME-STORE SALES
Company TickerFebruary MarchAprilMay June July Aug Sep Oct
Apparel Retailers
Abercrombie & Fitch ANF -6.00% 7.00% -15.00% -5.00% 2.00%-4.00% 6.00%-4.00% -2.00%
Aeropostale ARO 2.30% 15.90%-14.00%1.90% 0.00% -11.90% 1.7% 1.30% 3.00%
AmericanEagleAEOSNA 20.00% -10.00% 5.00% 8.00% -6.00% 9.00% -2.00% -3.00%
AnnTaylor ANN -2.90% 6.10% -12.80% -4.60% -8.40% -5.00% 2.9% 0.50% -4.20%
Bebe BEBE -2.20% 0.10% -9.00% -3.00% -5.40% -6.30% NA NA NA
Buckle BKE 4.50% 10.70% 1.80% 8.80% 13.30% 7.60% 16.7% 10.90% 14.90%
Cato CTR 0.00% 7.00% -21.00% 2.00% 0.00% -5.00% 2.00% -7.00% -8.00%
Chico's CHS -4.30% 5.20% -7.00% -2.90% -7.30% -6.70% -9.3% -8.30% -10.60%
Children'sPlace, The PLCE 5.00% 7.00% -2.00% 4.00% -4.00% -1.00%5.00% -3.00% 2.00%
Christopher & Banks CBK -13.00% 0.00% -12.00%4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 1.00% 22.00%
CitiTrends CTRN NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Claires CLE 1.00% 8.00% -6.00% NA NA NA NA NA NA
DebShops DEBS -2.00% 6.50% -4.70% 0.20% 1.90% -2.00% 0.2% -3.80% NA
Dillards DDS -9.00% 6.00% -14.00% -2.00% -1.00% -6.00% -5.00% -7.00% -7.00%
DressBarn DBRN 0.00% 12.00% -6.00% NA 2.00% 3.00% NA NA
NA
Macy's Inc. FD 1.20% 2.30% -2.20% -3.30% -2.70% -1.40% 2.4% -2.70% -1.50%
Gap GPS -4.00% 6.00%-16.00% -3.00% -5.00% -7.00% -1.00% -7.00% -8.00%
Gottschalks GOT -3.60% 6.40% -5.40% -3.80% -5.80% -3.90% -7.8%-3.90% -3.00%
Gymboree GYMB 1.00% 9.00% -5.00% NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hot Topic HOTT -2.70%3.40% -9.10% -6.10% -4.00% -7.40% -1.1% -2.90% -4.00%
J.C.Penney JCP -0.20% 10.60% 0.00% -2.00% -1.50% 14.00% -4.00%-4.60% -1.80%
Jo-AnnStores JAS NA NA NANA NA NA NA NA NA
Jos.A.Bank JOSB2.80%1.40% 7.30% 13.50% 0.40% -6.40% 7.7% 1.40% 1.80%
Kohl'sKSS 4.40% 16.80% -10.50% 10.50% -4.90% 0.00% 0.00%-3.20%-3.80%
LimitedBrands LTD 3.00% 8.00% -1.00% 2.00% 3.00%-3.00% -0.6% -4.00% -6.00%
MotherWorks MWRK -4.70%3.60%-14.80%-3.60% -5.40% -9.40% -3.7% -7.00% -3.90%
NordstromJWN9.10% 15.00% 3.10% 6.30% 2.00% 9.40% 6.00% 3.20%-2.40%
Pacific Sunwear PSUN -5.70% 14.10% -6.50% 6.40% 4.50%-4.60%9.6%2.70% -0.80%
RossStores ROST 1.00% 6.00% -7.00%1.00%4.00%1.00% 4.00% 0.00% -1.00%
Saks SKS 25.00%10.10%11.70% 37.50% -5.60% 14.90% 18.2% 7.70% 10.60%
SteinMartSMRT-1.90% 8.00% -13.90% 2.50% -2.90% -3.40% -5.2% -9.10%-3.80%
TJX TJX 2.00% 6.00% -1.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%4.00%2.00%3.00%
Drug Stores
CVS CVS 7.00% 7.00%6.10%6.20% 5.40% NA 1.00% 5.00% 4.60%
Walgreen WAG8.60%8.00%9.20%6.40% 5.10% 7.20% 6.5% 4.70% 6.90%
Wholesale Stores
BJ's Wholesale Club BJ 3.00% 3.10% -2.10% 4.10% 5.30% 1.50% 1.4% 3.90%4.80%
Costco COST 4.00% 6.00% 7.00% 7.00%6.00%7.00%2.00%6.00% 9.00%
Family Dollar FDO -0.50% 5.80%-4.90%2.50% 1.50% 0.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00%
Discount Retailers
Target TGT 5.70%12.00%-6.10% 5.80% 3.30% 6.10% 6.1% 1.20% 4.10%
Wal-Mart StoresWMT0.90% 4.00% -3.50% 1.10% 2.40% 1.90% 3.1% 0.80% 0.40%
Pier1 Imports PIR -8.40% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sharper Image SHRP -24.00% -29.00 -11.00% -8.00% -7.00% -15.00% -16.00% -21.00% -8.00%
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