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Jump Analysis: 
January Retail Sales Drop on Recession Concerns
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 12:00 PM EST February 08 2008



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Retailers reported weaker than anticipated same store sales rise in January. Discounts at several department stores failed to attract customers to stores as they grapple with economic anxieties. Falling home values, tight credit conditions, rising energy and gasoline prices have sapped consumers’ appetite for retail goods. Wal-Mart reported the lowest same-store sales rise in thirty years and most apparel retailers’ sales in January declined. Costco reported a 3% rise at domestic locations.

 
Retailers are bracing for one of the toughest years as consumers tackle rising energy and gasoline prices, falling home values, tighter credit conditions, and stagnant wages.

Same-store sales in January fell more than expected by most analysts. Wal-Mart (WMT: chart) reported same store sales increase of 0.5% in the month, lower than the company’s guidance of 2%. Sales at Wal-Mart stores fell 0.2% and at Sam’ Club sales increased 2.1%. For the fiscal year, same-store sales at U.S. locations rose 1.4%, the lowest growth in the last thirty years of data tracking.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST: chart) reported a 7% rise in January same-store sales across the company but sales increased 5% at domestic locations, only 3% when gasoline sales are excluded, and currency adjusted gain of 9% at international locations.

Department stores lowered prices on several products at mall based locations to attract buyers and rev up the gift card spending. However, consumers kept their spending in check.

Apparel retailers reported drop in sales as customers avoid discretionary purchases. J C Penney (JCP: chart) sales declined 1.9%, sales at Limited (LTD: chart) dropped 8.1%, at Macy’s (M: chart) fell 7.1%, and at Gap (GPS: chart) fell 2%. Saks bucked the trend and reported 4.1% rise in sales.

Target (TGT: chart) reported a 1.1% decline, an adjusted figure to incorporate the January 2007 reporting period that ended a week earlier than this year. Unadjusted sales jumped 5.4%.

The teen retailer Wet Seal Inc. (WTSLA: chart), in spite of the wider-than-expected 5.7% decline in January same-store sales, lifted its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings forecast for the second straight month.

Sales lost 8%at Limited Brands (LTD: chart). The sales drop surpassed the average analyst estimate for a decline of 7.1%. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO: chart) said that same-store sales declined 7%.
Children's Place Retail Stores reported a 6% gain, beating the 3.6% estimated gain. AnnTaylor Stores (ANN: chart) said its sales were flat with a year ago, better than the forecasted 3.7% drop.

2007 SAME-STORE SALES
CompanyTickerMayJuneJulyAugSepOctNovDecJan'08
Apparel Retailers
Abercrombie & FitchANF-5.00% 2.00%-4.00%6.00%-4.00%-2.00%2.00%-2.00%0.00%
AeropostaleARO1.90% 0.00% -11.90% 1.7%1.30%3.00%6.00%12.20%4.70%
AmericanEagleAEOS5.00% 8.00% -6.00%9.00%-2.00%-3.00%0.00%-2.00%-7.00%
AnnTaylorANN-4.60% -8.40% -5.00% 2.9%0.50%-4.20%3.90%-9.40%0.00%
BebeBEBE-3.00% -5.40% -6.30% NANANANANANA
BuckleBKE8.80% 13.30% 7.60% 16.7%10.90%14.90%18.20%18.70%19.10%
CatoCTR2.00% 0.00% -5.00% 2.00%-7.00%-8.00%-6.00%-8.00%-2.00%
Chico'sCHS-2.90% -7.30% -6.70% -9.3%-8.30%-10.60%-13.70%-13.70%-22.10%
Children'sPlace, ThePLCE4.00% -4.00% -1.00%5.00%-3.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%6.00%
Christopher & BanksCBK4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00%1.00%22.00%1.00%-1.00%-6.00%
CitiTrendsCTRNNA NA NANANANANANANA
ClairesCLENA NANANANANANANANA
DebShopsDEBS0.20% 1.90%-2.00% 0.2%-3.80%NANANA-3.80%
DillardsDDS-2.00% -1.00% -6.00% -5.00%-7.00%-7.00%1.00%-5.00%-12.00%
DressBarnDBRNNA 2.00% 3.00% NANANANANA
NA
Macy's Inc.FD-3.30% -2.70% -1.40%2.4%-2.70%-1.50%13.40%-7.90%-2.00%
GapGPS-3.00% -5.00% -7.00% -1.00%-7.00%-8.00%0.00%-6.00%-2.00%
GottschalksGOT-3.80% -5.80% -3.90% -7.8%-3.90%-3.00%0.40%-13.80%-7.40%
GymboreeGYMBNANA NANANANANANANA
Hot TopicHOTT-6.10% -4.00% -7.40% -1.1%-2.90%-4.00%-8.30%-6.20%-3.60%
J.C.PenneyJCP-2.00% -1.50% 14.00% -4.00%-4.60%-1.80%2.60%-7.50%-1.90%
Jo-AnnStoresJASNANA NANANANANANANA
Jos.A.BankJOSB13.50% 0.40% -6.40% 7.7%1.40%1.80%15.00%2.00%-1.20%
Kohl'sKSS10.50% -4.90% 0.00% 0.00%-3.20%-3.80%10.20%-11.40%-8.30%
LimitedBrandsLTD2.00% 3.00%-3.00% -0.6%-4.00%-6.00%-7.00%-8.00%-8.00%
MotherWorksMWRK-3.60% -5.40% -9.40% -3.7%-7.00%-3.90%0.00%-7.60%-2.10%
NordstromJWN6.30% 2.00% 9.40% 6.00%3.20%-2.40%8.70%-4.00%-6.60%
Pacific SunwearPSUN6.40% 4.50%-4.60%9.6%2.70%-0.80%2.30%-2.80%-7.40%
RossStoresROST1.00%4.00%1.00% 4.00%0.00%-1.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%
SaksSKS37.50% -5.60% 14.90% 18.2%7.70%10.60%25.70%0.80%3.30%
SteinMartSMRT2.50% -2.90% -3.40%-5.2%-9.10%-3.80%-8.90%-5.70%-2.50%
TJXTJX5.00%5.00% 5.00%4.00%2.00%3.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%
Drug Stores
CVSCVS6.20%5.40%NA1.00%5.00%4.60%4.40%1.80%8.60%
WalgreenWAG6.40% 5.10% 7.20% 6.5%4.70%6.90%4.40%2.60%3.80%
Wholesale Stores
BJ's Wholesale ClubBJ4.10% 5.30% 1.50%1.4%3.90%4.80%7.70%3.00%7.80%
CostcoCOST7.00%6.00%7.00%2.00%6.00%9.00%9.00%7.00%7.00%
Family DollarFDO2.50%1.50%0.50%1.00%0.50%0.00%-3.40%-0.70%0.00%
Discount Retailers
TargetTGT5.80% 3.30% 6.10% 6.1%1.20%4.10%10.80%-5.00%-1.10%
Wal-Mart StoresWMT1.10% 2.40% 1.90% 3.1%0.80%0.40%1.50%2.40%0.50%
Pier1 ImportsPIRNA NANANANANANANANA
Sharper ImageSHRP-8.00%-7.00%-15.00%-16.00%-21.00%-8.00%-8.00%-10.00%-11.00%
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