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IPO Outlook: 
The Passing Parade: IPO Reality TV
Author: John E. Fitzgibbon, Jr.
123jump.com



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Last week got off to Wall Street’s version of the hit TV show: “Fear Factor.” The first two of a dozen planned IPOs crashed on takeoff. That wasn’t in the script.

 
TRW Automotive Holdings (TRW: chart), a Livonia, Michigan-based automotive part supplier, priced its IPO at $28 a share, on the low end of its $28- to $30-a-share filing range. On Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2004, the IPO opened at $27.35 a share -- a broken deal. The stock closed the week even lower. It ended the week at $26.37 a share -- down 5.8 percent from its offering price.

What went wrong?

Answer: The company’s industrial sector turned weak from the time that proposed offering terms were announced to when the deal was priced. The Dow Jones Auto Parts Index had fallen 4.7 percent from its 52-week closing high of 258.05 of Monday, Jan. 26, 2004, to its close of 245.97 of Monday, Feb. 2, 2004.

GTx (GTXI: chart), a Memphis, Tennessee-based biopharmaceutical company, priced its IPO at $14.50 a share, near the high end of its $13- to $15-a-share filing range. On Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2004, the IPO opened at $15.27 a share, ran up to its opening-day high of $16, and did a nosedive. The stock closed its opening day at $12.90 a share -- down 11 percent from its initial offering price --and closed the week out at $12.70 a share.

Why did GTx slip a gear?

Answer: The biotech/pharmaceutical IPOs have been choppy in the aftermarket. Since Oct. 7, 2003, when Acusphere (ACUS: chart) priced its IPO at $14 a share, 10 other biotech/pharmaceutical companies have gone public. As bankers were feeding these IPOs into the market, Acusphere’s price plunged to a low of $6.76 a share by Nov. 21, 2003. That was down 51.7 percent from its initial offering price.

So the week got off to a rough start, with TRW and GTx flaming out. But a third deal priced on Monday evening, The Bancorp Bank (TBBK: chart), IPO was priced at $12.50 a share, near the high end of its filing range of $11 to $13 a share. It opened Tuesday at $15.15 and closed its first day of trading at $16 – up 28 percent from its IPO price.

After the TRW and GTx IPOs bombed, Wall Street’s denizens got nervous … very, very nervous. Some might even say they were disturbed. They were looking ahead to the rest of the Weekly IPO Show -– another nine deals expected to raise $2.3 billion. That’s heavy traffic, especially when you consider that the best they could do in 2003’s first half was to price 10 IPOs, which raised $2.55 billion.

Wall Street was hoping -- praying -- for a revival of another popular TV show from the past: “The Price Is Right.”

After all, everything on Wall Street is for sale at a price.

On Wednesday evening, bankers priced five IPOs, held their collective breaths, crossed their fingers, squinted their eyes and peaked out of an eyelid to see they got “The Price Is Right” and not “The Gong Show.”

All five deals, which raised a whopping $2.1 billion, started trading above their initial offering prices.

Whew!

And better yet, all five finished their opening-day’s trading in the winner’s circle with an average gain of 13.3 percent each.

All right!

Everybody -- issuers, bankers and, oh yes, their customers -- went to the bank, wearing smiles.

On Thursday evening, bankers priced four IPOs. Three did fine: AlphaSmart (ALSM: chart), priced at $6 and closed its first day of trading at $6.19; Staktex Holdings (STAK: chart), priced at $13 and closed its first day of trading at $14.88, and Symbion (SMBI: chart), priced at $15 and closed its first day of trading at $18.63.

One didn’t fare so well: DayStar Technologies (DSTIU: chart), priced its units at $5 a unit; they closed the first day of trading at $4.95 per unit. Unfortunately, that’s not a star turn.
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