This is, of course, all in keeping with one of the most famous maxims of Wall Street: “If you don’t know the horse, bet the jockey!”
The time span for the last 100 IPOs dates back to Feb. 21, 2002, when book-runner Merrill Lynch priced the
PETCO Animal Supplies (
PETC: chart) IPO.
The last IPO to make its debut on the new-issue racetrack was last Friday when book-runner Merrill Lynch priced the
SigmaTel (
SGTL: chart) IPO.
Here’s the IPO Scorecard of the last 100 new issues. As of Friday, Sept. 19, 2003, 78 IPOs closed above their initial offering prices. Twenty-two other IPOs didn’t. They were in the losers’ column. But the average gain per IPO was up 42 percent each. This compares very favorably with the Nasdaq Composite Index. It closed Friday, Sept. 19, 2003, at 1,905.70, up 11 percent from its close of 1,716.24 on Feb. 21, 2002.
The Jockeys:
It took 33 book-runners to price the last 100 IPOs, according to available records.
This is significant because in every deal there is just one book-runner. Just like the name implies, the book-runner manages the deal -– in other words, this investment bank calls the shots for the deal, runs the “due diligence” meetings, allocates the stock and earns the biggest fee for bringing the company public.
The scorecard of managers focuses on the performance of the book-runner -- or the lead jockey.
It’s worth noting:
* Eighteen of those 33 book-runners handled just one IPO each.
* Three investment bankers were the book-runners for two IPOs each.
* Another three bankers were the book-runners for three deals each.
* Three more bankers were the book-runners for four IPOs apiece.
*
Lehman Brothers was the book-runner for five IPOs.
*
Salomon Smith Barney (now Citigroup) was the book-runner for six IPOs among the last 100 deals priced.
What does this add up to so far? A total of 29 different investment banking firms acted as the book-runner for 56 of the last 100 IPOs that came to market.
Now let’s take a look at what the Wall Street giants were up to. Four investment bankers ran the books for the remaining 44 of the last 100 IPOs priced.
Credit Suisse First Boston was the book-runner for 14 IPOs. The average opening-day gain per CSFB deal was up 7.4 percent each. At Friday’s close on Sept. 19, 2003, 12 were above their initial offering prices and two were below. For the period stretching back to late February 2002 until now, which covers the birthdays of the last 100 IPOs, the average gain per CSFB deal was up 45.1 percent each.
The big winner was
Eon Labs (
ELAB: chart), which closed Friday at $39.26 a share, up 161.7 percent from its offering price of $15 a share.
The big loser was
Integrated Defense (
IDE: chart), which closed Friday at $17.13 a share, down 22.1 percent from its offering price of $22 a share.
Goldman Sachs was the book-runner for 11 IPOs. The average opening-day gain per Goldman Sachs deal was up 5.8 percent each. At Friday’s close on Sept. 19, 2003, 10 were above their initial offering prices and one was below. The average gain per Goldman Sachs deal was up 21.8 percent each over the lifespan of the last 100 IPOs, dating back to late February 2002.
The big winner was
Anteon International (
ANT: chart), which closed Friday at $33.05 a share, up 83.6 percent from its offering price of $18 a share.
The loser was
Plumtree Software (
PLUM: chart). That one killed the average aftermarket performance for Goldman Sachs’ scorecard. Plumtree closed Friday at $4.41 a share, down 48.1 percent from its offering price of $8.50 a share.
Morgan Stanley was the book-runner for 10 IPOs. The average opening-day gain per Morgan Stanley deal was up 22.6 percent each. At Friday’s close on Sept. 19, 2003, nine were above their initial offering prices and one was below. The average gain per Morgan Stanley deal was up 85 percent each over the lifetime of the last 100 IPOs, going back to late February 2002.
The big winner was
JetBlue (
JBLU: chart), which closed Friday at $58.92 a share (adjusted for a 3-for-2 stock split) -- up a whopping 227.3 percent from its offering price of $18 a share.