Dating back to 1970 (the beginning of the IPO historical data), January’s results have set the pace for the stock market in 29 of the last 34 years.

Consider:
* Stocks closed higher in January than in the previous December 21 times and stocks ended the year in the plus column in those years.
* Stocks closed lower in January than in the previous December eight times and stocks finish those years in the minus column.
* On four occasions, stocks finished January lower than in the previous December, but they still went on to finish the year in the plus column.
* Only once did the January Barometer fake everybody out. In January 2001, the Dow Jones industrial average closed the month at 10,897.36, up from its December 2000 close of 10,786.85. But the Dow industrials closed 2001 at 10,021.50 -- DOWN for the year.

Due to the nature of the IPO market, a “January IPO Barometer,” such as the stock market’s indicator, is no indication as to how well, or how poorly the IPO production line will perform for the rest of the year. The December IPO traffic is much heavier than the January IPO traffic.

Dating back to 1970, December’s IPO traffic has totaled 1,034 new issues, which raised $58.3 billion. That makes an average December of 30 IPOs, which raised $1.7 billion, according to available records.

Dating back to 1970, January’s IPO traffic has totaled 605 new issues, which raised $26 billion. That makes an average January of 17.8 IPOs, which raised $766 million.

Thus, there is no January Barometer theory to judge the coming year’s IPO direction. But this January has been giving a signal that the IPO market is back in town.

This week, three IPOs are on the new-issues launching pad. If all get priced, it’ll raise the January 2004 totals to six. As slim as that may seem, that is much larger than all the last three years combined. Here are the totals:

January 2003: Zero IPO
January 2002: 1 IPO
January 2001: 3 IPOs

The busiest January on record was January 1970, when 60 IPOs were priced. As many as they were, they raised just $135.6 million. Deals were smaller in yesteryear.

There is a three-way tie for the slowest January on record. No IPOs were priced during January 1974, 1975 and 2003.

The January that produced the greatest dollar amount was in 2000, when 16 IPOs raised $3.65 billion. Nearly half of the dollar volume came from one IPO. It was the John Hancock Financial Services (JHF: chart) deal. The company offered 102 million shares at $17 each to raise $1.73 billion. The stock closed Friday, Jan. 23, 2004, at $40.75 a share, up 139.7 percent from its initial offering price.

The sharpest opening-day gain scored by an IPO in January 2000 was the Neoforma.com (NEOF: chart) deal. The company priced its IPO at $13 a share and it closed its first day of trading at $52.38 a share -- up 302.9 percent from its initial offering price. In Aug. 27, 2001, the stock had a 1 for 10 reverse stock split. That would adjust its offering price to $130 a share. The stock closed Friday, Jan. 23, 2004, at $11.15 a share -- down 91.4 percent from its initial offering price.

History can be an indication of what to expect for the future. If so, consider this:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday, Jan. 23, 2004, at 10,568.29, down from its Jan. 16, 2004, close of 10,600.51. On Friday, the Dow broke a string of eight consecutive weekly gains. That leaves the Dow up about 143 points from its Dec. 31, 2003, close of 10,453.92. So this week will be a cliffhanger to see if January 2004 will close above its previous December 2003 close. Lurking in the background: the January Barometer Theory.