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IPO Outlook: 
Passing Parade: Taking the IPO Market's Pulse
Author: John E. Fitzgibbon, Jr.
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The action in New York City this week will be north of Wall Street. It’s all happening in Madison Square Garden, at Penn Station in midtown Manhattan. That’s the Republican National Convention, of course. By the end of the week, the Republicans and

 
With nothing ticking in the IPO market until after Labor Day, a seasonal factor, let’s take a look at the 2004 IPO market, as of the close of business on Friday, Aug. 27, 2004. That was the last Friday of August 2004.

Then let’s make a comparison with this time a year ago. The date was Friday, Aug. 29, 2003. That was the last Friday of August 2003.

Friday, Aug. 27, 2004:
* The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,862.09 on Friday, Aug. 27, 2004, down 7.05 percent from its close of 2,003.37 on Dec. 31, 2003.
* From Jan. 2, 2004, through Aug. 27, 2004, bankers had priced 139 IPOs (excluding three unit offering consisting of common stock and warrants), which raised $28.1 billion, according to available records.
* On Friday, Aug. 27, 2004, 71 IPOs closed above their initial offering prices, 65 IPOs closed below their initial offering prices and three IPOs closed unchanged. The average gain was 5.56 percent.


At Labor Day 2004’s break, the IPO Hero was:
Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA: chart), a Shanghai-based operator of online games in China that users play over the Internet. Shanda priced its IPO of 13.9 million American Depositary Shares at $11 each to
raise $152.4 million on May 11, 2004. On Aug. 27, 2004, Shanda Interactive Entertainment closed at $23.05 a share, up 109.6 percent from its initial offering price.

At Labor Day 2004’s break, the IPO Goat was:
Staktek Holdings (STAK: chart), an Austin, Texas-based provider of high-density packaged memory stacking solutions. Staktek priced its IPO of 10 million shares at $13 each to raise $130 million on Feb. 5, 2004. On Aug. 27, 2004, Staktek Holdings closed at $5.80 a share, down 55.4 percent from its initial offering price.

A Year Ago
Friday, Aug. 29, 2003:
* The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,810.45 on Friday, Aug. 29, 2003, up 35.6 percent from its close of 1,335.51 on Dec. 31, 2002.
* From Jan. 2, 2003, through Aug. 29, 2003, bankers had priced 24 IPOs (excluding one unit offering consisting of common stock and warrants), which raised $4.9 billion.
* On Friday, Aug. 29, 2003, 23 IPOs closed above their initial offering prices and one IPO closed below its initial offering price. The average gain was 28.8 percent.

At Labor Day 2003’s break, the IPO Hero was:
Accredited Home Lenders (LEND: chart), a San Diego-based mortgage-banking firm. Accredited Home Lenders priced its IPO of 9.65 million shares at $8 each to raise $77.2 million on Feb. 14, 2003. On Aug. 29, 2003, Accredited Home Lenders closed at $16.09 a share, up 101.1 percent from its initial offering price.

On Aug. 27, 2004, the stock closed at $38.36 a share, up 379.5 percent from its offering price.

At Labor Day 2003’s break, the IPO Goat was:
Redline Performance Products (RED: chart), a Vista, California-based development-stage company that designed snowmobiles. Redline priced its IPO of 2.22 million shares at $4.50 each to raise $10 million on May 15, 2003.
On Aug. 29, 2003, Redline Performance Products closed at $4.05 a share, down 10 percent from its initial offering price.

On Aug. 27, 2004, Redline Performance announced its had ceased all operations and had filed a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 7 of the United States Bankruptcy Code with the United States Bankruptcy Court, District of Minnesota.

What a Difference a Year Makes

In 2003, the stock market had the wind at its back, and a surging Nasdaq put life in the IPO traffic.

For 2003, the Nasdaq Composite Index scored a gain of 50 percent. It closed on Dec. 31, 2003, at 2,003.37, up from 1,335.51 on Dec. 31, 2002.

For 2003, bankers priced 84 IPOs, which raised $16 billion.

From Aug. 29, 2003, through Dec. 31, 2003, bankers priced 59 IPOs that raised $11.7 billion.

For 2004, the good news is that the Nasdaq Composite is up 6.25 percent from its closing low of 1,752.49 set on Aug. 12, 2004. And 161 IPOs are in the new-issues pipeline, expecting to raise nearly $33 billion. On Jan. 2, 2004, there were just 49 IPOs in the pipeline, expecting to raise about $8.9 billion.
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