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Earnings Analysis: 
The Week Ahead
Author: George Shopov
123jump.com



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This week is likely to keep analysts busy, as it will see earnings announcements from a host of leading U.S. companies. Economic data, including a report on the fourth-quarter gross domestic product, will also be in focus.

 
The fourth-quarter earnings season is picking up speed and this is likely to be another hectic week for stock investors, as more than 150 U.S. major companies are reporting their financial results in the next five days. Among the big names are Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., with earnings announcements due out on Tuesday. Merck, which withdrew Vioxx from the market because of a study that linked the arthritis drug to increased risk of heart attacks and strokes, is expected to earn 50 cents per share for the fourth quarter, compared with 62 cents per share, last year. Financial reports from Microsoft Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. are scheduled for Thursday. Analysts believe that solid demand for personal computers may help Microsoft deliver stronger-than-anticipated results. Earnings are expected to come in at 33 cents per share, on revenue of $10.55 billion. For the prior-year corresponding period, the software giant earned 34 cents per share, on revenue of $10.15 billion. McDonald's Corp. will announce its quarterly results on Friday and its earnings are viewed at 45 cents per share, up from 35 cents per share, a year ago. The week ahead will also see earnings reports from Starbucks Corp., Texas Instruments, DuPont & Co., Altria Group Inc. and a host of other leading companies.

Along with earnings, the week's calendar of economic data will also be in focus. On Tuesday, the Conference Board will release its consumer confidence index for January. Durable goods figures for December will be out on Thursday. The report on the fourth-quarter gross domestic product by the Commerce Department is scheduled for Friday.

General Electric Company (GE: chart) delivered before market open Friday an 18% increase in its 2004 fourth-quarter earnings, driven by strong results in most of its businesses. The diversified technology, media and financial services company turned in record fourth-quarter net income of $5.38 billion, or 51 cents per share, which compares to net income of $4.56 billion, or 45 cents per share, for the 2003 corresponding period. The earnings topped by a penny a share the average analysts’ forecast. Revenue rose 18% to a record $43.71 billion, for the quarter ended December 31, from $36.96 billion, last year. Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE said 9 of its 11 businesses recorded double-digit earnings growth in the quarter. Industrial sales improved 19% to $24.6 billion, boosted by acquisitions and solid core growth. Revenues from financial services increased 16% to $19.2 billion. GE added that earnings of the insurance segment declined as a result of increased loss reserves for policies written in prior years and the disposition of several businesses. For the full fiscal year, profits were a record $16.59 billion, or $1.59 per share, compared with $15 billion, or $1.49 per share, for 2003. Annual revenues rose 14% to $152.36 billion.

Citigroup Inc. (C: chart) announced Thursday record quarterly profits, boosted by strong performance at its consumer and investment banking businesses. The world’s largest financial services firm turned in net earnings of $5.32 billion, or $1.02 per share, for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004, compared with earnings of $4.76 billion, or 91 cents per share, for the prior-year equivalent. Results were in line with Wall Street’s expectations. For the quarter ended December 31, the New York-based company recorded revenue of $21.88 billion, a 9% increase from year-ago revenue of $20.2 billion. Analysts had predicted revenue of $21.5 billion, on average. Citigroup said that consumer income edged up 7% from last year to $3.1 billion and corporate and investment banking income jumped 32% to $1.69 billion. However, operating expenses increased 19% to $12 billion, due to higher investment banker bonuses, legal bills, currency fluctuations and acquisitions. For all of 2004, profits totaled $17.05 billion, or $3.26 per share, on revenue of $86.2 billion. That compares to profits of $17.85 billion, or $3.42 per share, on revenue of $77.4 billion, in 2003.

For the fiscal 2005, Citigroup said it expects earnings to be near the low end of analysts’ forecast range of $4.20 to $4.57 per share.

Company shares dropped 27 cents on Thursday to $47.77.

SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI: chart) of Atlanta, Georgia, said Thursday that its quarterly income advanced 33%, aided by stronger revenue and cost cutting initiatives. The bank reported a fourth-quarter profit of $455.7 million, or $1.26 a share, up from $342.5 million, or $1.21 a share, last year. On a pro forma basis, earnings came to $1.31 a share, outpacing by 4 cents the average analysts’ estimate. Quarterly revenue rose to $1.86 billion from $1.46 billion. SunTrust said its acquisition of National Commerce Financial Corp. also helped boost its results.

The stock rose 1.73% to $71.59 at market close Thursday. Company shares added 10 cents to $71.69 in after-hours trading.

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC: chart) of San Jose, California, reported after the bell Thursday a huge rise in its quarterly income, driven by surging sales. The maker of semiconductor production equipment announced net earnings of $122 million, or 61 cents per share, for its second quarter, against earnings of $45 million, or 22 cents per share, for the 2004 comparable period. The results were 2 cents a share ahead of the mean analysts’ estimate. Revenue in the quarter soared 57% to $533 million from $339 million, last year.

The stock shed 54 cents on Thursday to $43.31. Company shares rose 2.52% to $44.40 in the extended session.

Ford Motor Company (F: chart) posted Thursday a net profit of $104 million, or 6 cents a share, for its fourth quarter, bouncing back from a year-ago loss of $793 million, or 43 cents a share. The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker attributed the turnaround to strong results at its finance arm which offset losses at its automotive operations. Excluding items, the company earned 28 cents a share, down from 31 cents a share, a year ago, but a penny above analysts’ projections. Quarterly revenue slipped to $44.7 billion from $45.9 billion.

Ford shares closed Thursday at $13.46, down 47 cents, or 3.37%. The stock dropped 1 cent in after-hours trading.

Delphi Corporation (DPH: chart) of Troy, Michigan, said Thursday that it swung to a quarterly loss from a year-earlier profit, hurt by restructuring charges, higher costs for raw materials and lower vehicle production. The world’s top maker of auto parts posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $102 million, or 18 cents per share, compared with a profit of $82 million, or 15 cents a share, for the 2003 equivalent. Loss before items was $51 million, or 9 cents a share, while analysts had expected a loss of 15 cents a share. Revenue for the quarter dipped 3% to $7 billion.

The stock slid 1.64% to close Thursday at $7.81.
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