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Earnings Analysis: 
Advance Auto Parts Second Quarter Earnings Call
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 4:42 PM EDT August 17 2007


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The auto parts retailer reported revenue increase of 5.6% to $1.17 billion, failing to meet the analysts’ expectation of $1.19 billion. As part of a business strategy review, the company reduced staffing at its store support center and in its field organization by a total of 250 positions. Comparable store sales increase was at the lower end of low single digit guidance range. New store openings in 2007 will be reduced to 190 to 200 stores from the previous outlook of 200 to 210 stores.

 
Elwyn G. Murray III: The company is working with its marketing group to formulate communication at the right time. That is taking some lead time, but about the 1st of 2008, the company wants to be poised to communicate what it is doing.

Ryan Rentria (Cars Capital): Your comparables guidance for the fourth quarter is 2 points higher than for the third one and you said the sales initiatives would have a limited impact and the comparisons about the same. Why is it that you are expecting acceleration in the business in the fourth quarter?

Jack Brouillard: There will be more of the initiatives coming to bear in the fourth quarter, and embedded in that. The external environment is going to freshen and there will be more opportunity to do business, but the combination of Advance Auto Parts’ own efforts being that much further along and a belief that the external environment is going to improve.

Ryan Rentria (Cars Capital): The $50 million in cost reductions in 2008 is on top of the $20 million in the second half of this year, so it is an aggregate of $70, is that correct?

Jim L. Wade: No. The $50 million for 2008 is the impact in 2008; the $20 million in 2007 is the impact in 2007. They should not be added together.

Nancy Hoch (J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc.): Could you talk about whether your 11% to 12% operating margin target is still intact and you are getting a nice jumpstart from the express reductions, but what gets you the rest of the way towards that target?

Jack Brouillard: It is a combination of returning to reasonable levels of comparable store sales as a result of all of the initiatives that are under way and those that are not yet underway but will be underway. The company is focused on having a more cost cautious culture within the company and the sum total of the things it has been talking about. The company still thinks that target is a reasonable target for it to achieve.

Nancy Hoch (J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc.): You talked about your systems investments and a trade off this year with more emphasis shifting towards inventory management. Can you talk about where you are funding those investments from?

Jim L. Wade: The company looks at all of its CapEx for 2007 and 2008, and as part of that, has reprioritized some investments, it has eliminated other investments and all of that is reflected in the revised CapEx guidance it has given. The funds are there to do what needs to be done. It is a matter of aligning it with the strategy and ensuring that all the other investments it is going to produce the returns.

Nancy Hoch (J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc.): Have you increased the size of the IT bucket or are you deemphasizing some other IT initiatives at this point?

Jim L. Wade: The company has not increased, but rather redeployed and ensure that all of its CapEx spending in IT is focused on these initiatives that matter most to the business.

Cid Wilson (Kevin Dann & Partners): You mentioned that there were some learning experiences that you got from Autopart International. Where do you feel those missed opportunities were?

Jack Brouillard: Some of it is emphasis that the company was staffing and supporting the DIY side of the business more heavily and in some cases to the detriment of the commercial side of the business in terms of adequate delivery coverage and the parts that it has been mentioning throughout the last two quarters.

Jim L. Wade: Advance Auto Parts has learned more about how to source some of the products it should be sourcing, looking at AI as a model by itself. There have been learnings around staffing and compensation.

Cid Wilson (Kevin Dann & Partners): Could you comment on how accessories and chemicals did in the second quarter?

Elwyn G. Murray III: The second quarter was cooler than normal. Things like AC refrigerants and accessories, AC parts, had some softness. In some categories like interior accessories, seat covers, wheel covers, exterior accessories, car covers, things like that, the company experienced some softness. In some more non-discretionary categories such as batteries, there were solid results. Between some of the weather dynamics that have already been well documented, the company did see softness with some discretionary spending but the underlying non-discretionary seems relatively solid.

Cid Wilson (Kevin Dann & Partners): Do you expect free cash flow to accelerate next year?

Elwyn G. Murray III: The company has not given guidance yet, but directionally, it would anticipate that free cash flow next year would be stronger than in 2007.
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