Craig Huber (Lehman Brothers): Your recurring fees for the rest of the year were up about 50% in the first quarter. Do you expect that to be up the remainder of the year?
Robert Bahash: The unearned revenue was 11% after currency it was about 9.5%. With the slower revenue growth during the course of the year, you will see a corresponding slower growth in revenue from unearned revenue during the course of the year. Those numbers will start to slowly decline. We are expecting growth, just not at the same pace that we have been experiencing over the past several years.
Craig Huber (Lehman Brothers): Even if you take your conservative case if market conditions continue as they are for the rest of the year, do you still expect your recurring fees, surveillance annual contracts, subscriptions to be up year over year for the remainder of the year?
Robert Bahash: We do because a fair amount of that recurring revenue is coming from the corporate and government side. Investment grade issuance was strong in the month of April, good GE credit went out, you got Bristol-Meyers, and you got Monsanto. A number of big issuers are hitting the marketplace and that is where we are seeing some of those recurring fees. At a slower growth rate, but nevertheless we are going to be experiencing growth during the course of the year.
Craig Huber (Lehman Brothers): Can you give a sense out of that $200 million of recurring fees, what percentage would be surveillance fees?
Robert Bahash: No, we can not break it down that finely. You are talking about program fees, annual fees, we are talking about general relationship fees, frequent issuer fees, there are a number of different categories that we have within there. We can not break it down that finely, but there is a number of ways that we categorize it to cover all the various markets.
Terry McGraw: The other aspect of that is that it is still a significant factor for us. Even though the growth rate will decline, it will still be at a healthy rate. As things start to improve we will start to see that number go back up as well.
Craig Huber (Lehman Brothers): What is the average length in terms of number of years of the stuff that you rate?
Deven Sharma: In the structured areas, shorter timeframes and in the corporate instruments it is somewhere between five to eight or ten years.
Craig Huber (Lehman Brothers): As you look out over the next year, what asset class of fixed income would you advise investors to focus on that you think would come back first?
Terry McGraw: At this point, the attention is to investment grade at this point. When you start talking about the high yield markets and you start talking about some parts of the structured finance market, it will be slower in coming and there will be a bias towards quality. You will see more plain vanilla issuance from that standpoint. There is a bias to quality at this point. In terms of activity we are seeing still a healthy asset backed market. Both in terms of credit card receivables and in terms of some of the auto loans area. I would look to the commercial mortgage backed market to come back quicker. Right now what you are seeing is some of those deals being done through leveraged loans but you will see more activity from that standpoint.
Robert Bahash: April is a busy month for investment grade. GE did a three tranche deal, $8.5 billion, Oracle a $5 billion three tranche deal, $4 billion three tranche transaction from Verizon, Bristol-Meyers just this week a $600 million transaction, same with Monsanto. We are seeing a fair amount of key activity as rates are where they are from significant investment grade properties as the spreads to treasuries are starting to come in. Hopefully that will bode well for the balance of the year.
Barton Crockett (J.P. Morgan): On the trend in the financial services top line you are saying 7-9% decline for the year. Can you give a sense of whether the second quarter is pacing within that range or outside of it, either on the upside or the downside in terms of the aggregate top line?
Terry McGraw: For the second quarter we do not forecast unintelligible performance, but what we want to see is continued improvement in some of the categories of structured. Commercial mortgage back is still soft, residential mortgage backed is dormant right now. But the asset backed area is showing signs of improvement and we want to continue to see that side of it. The corporate and government side is showing a healthy increase in terms of corporate treasurers starting to finance more in terms of long bonds versus in commercial paper or other kinds of issues. The second quarter is going to be still affected by the current conditions that we are facing here, but through strong product diversity and geographic expansion and cost containment, we will be hopeful that we will be able to have a stable position on that. The second half is where we are going to start to see hopefully the improvement.
Barton Crockett (J.P. Morgan): Your business has cyclical issues, but a lot of this will come back as the market normalizes, but some portions of it may not come back or it may come back at levels nothing like what we saw before. Where would you see that, what portions of the issuance market and how large you might size the portion of that market that may not come back?
Terry McGraw: The structured finance market is going to come back more gradually. You are going to see more of a flight to quality and you are going to see less of an appetite for high yield or high risk instruments. As confidence comes back into the market, we will see that increase. I believe that the securitization process is a fundamental driver in the investment community. Institutional investors love that product and they have so much mobility with that product in terms of all the things that they can do with it. It will come back, it is just going to take time to restore the confidence and trust in the system and to understand and make sure that people understand the risks associated with that kind of product.
Catriona Fallon (Citigroup): Where you are on the announced headcount reductions from early January?
Deven Sharma: We have completed our headcount reduction in financial services that we announced in December.
Robert Bahash: The education and corporate areas that also announced some downsizings have both been completed as well. In all categories though, individuals remained on the payroll during a portion of the first quarter. We start to see the benefits come more dramatically in the second quarter and beyond.
Terry McGraw: One of the things that we have done is we talked about staged and three stages. The first one was once we saw the situation deteriorate we did go into a hiring freeze. Then we announced the restructuring charge for the second stage relative to the lack of activity. Given the first quarter steep decline in structured finance equal to what we saw in the fourth quarter, we are examining another stage at this point. We want to be measured relative to the activity levels. As we start to things start to improve, we want to be measured in terms of how we respond to that. Especially when we talk about the structured finance area, these are talented people and therefore in terms of making some of those cuts you want to be measured in doing that. We are examining now another component to that. You also want to make sure that in terms of the ongoing business that you have in the surveillance area, that you are staffed to be able to do that.
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