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JPMorgan Fourth Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 4:40 AM EST January 21 2008


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JPMorgan’s revenue rose 7% to $17.4 billion, beating estimates of $17.05 billion. The company reported a $1.3 billion writedown in the company''''s investment banking arm, due to the decline in value of its subprime holdings. Investment banking fees were $1.7 billion, up 5% from the prior year, reflecting record advisory and equity underwriting fees, largely offset by lower debt underwriting fees. Checking accounts totaled 10.8 million, up 844,000, or 8%, from the prior year.


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Sequential Earnings Growth | Quarterly Earnings by Year | Quarterly Earnings Growth by Year

Source: Company filings    Q1:March  Q2:June  Q3:September  Q4:December
 
- Net income was $752 million, an increase of $34 million, or 5%, from the prior year, as improved results in Mortgage Banking were offset largely by declines in Regional Banking and Auto Finance.
- Net revenue was $4.8 billion, an increase of $1.1 billion, or 29%, from the prior year.
- Net interest income was $2.7 billion, up $125 million, or 5%, due to higher home equity loan balances, wider loan spreads and higher deposit balances. These benefits were offset partially by a shift to narrower–spread deposit products.

- Noninterest revenue was $2.1 billion, up $962 million, benefiting from a valuation adjustment of $499 million on the MSR asset. The absence of a prior-year $233 million loss related to $13.3 billion of mortgage loans transferred to held-for-sale, an increase in deposit-related fees and increased mortgage loan servicing revenue. Noninterest revenue also benefited from the classification of certain mortgage loan origination costs as expense (loan origination costs previously netted against revenue commenced being recorded as an expense in the first quarter of 2007 due to the adoption of SFAS 159 (“Fair Value Option”)). These benefits were offset partially by the absence of prior-year gains on subprime mortgage loan sales and markdowns on the mortgage warehouse and pipeline in the current quarter.

- The provision for credit losses was $1.1 billion, compared with $262 million in the prior year. The current-quarter provision includes an increase of $395 million in the allowance for loan losses related to home equity loans as continued weak housing prices have resulted in an increase in estimated losses for high loan-to-value loans. Home equity net charge-offs were $248 million (1.05% net charge-off rate), compared with $51 million (0.24% net charge-off rate) in the prior year. In addition, the current-quarter provision includes a $125 million increase in the allowance for loan losses related to subprime mortgage loans, reflecting an increase in estimated losses and growth in the portfolio. Subprime mortgage net charge-offs were $71 million (2.08% net charge-off rate), compared with $17 million (0.65% net charge-off rate) in the prior year.
- Noninterest expense was $2.5 billion, an increase of $249 million, or 11%, from the prior year, due to the classification of certain loan origination costs as expense due to the adoption of SFAS 159, higher mortgage production and servicing expense, and investments in the retail distribution network.

Regional Banking net income was $371 million, a decrease of $248 million, or 40%, from the prior year.

- Net revenue was $3.3 billion, up $396 million, or 14%, reflecting the absence of a prior-year $233 million loss related to $13.3 billion of mortgage loans transferred to held-for-sale. Net revenue also benefited from increased deposit-related fees, higher home equity loan balances, growth in deposits and wider loan spreads. These benefits were offset partially by a shift to narrower–spread deposit products.
- The provision for credit losses was $915 million, compared with $165 million in the prior year. The increase in the provision was due to the home equity and subprime mortgage portfolios.
- Noninterest expense was $1.8 billion, up $55 million, or 3%, from the prior year due to investments in the retail distribution network.

Checking accounts totaled 10.8 million, up 844,000, or 8%, from the prior year.

- Average total deposits increased to $208.5 billion, up $7.8 billion, or 4%, from the prior year.
- Average home equity loans of $94 billion increased from $84.2 billion in the prior year.
- Business Banking loan originations were $1.7 billion, up 10% from the prior year. Average business banking loans were $15.1 billion, up 8% from the prior year.

- Number of branches increased to 3,152, up 73 from the prior year.
- Branch sales of credit cards increased 34% from the prior year.
- Branch sales of investment products were flat compared with the prior year.
- Overhead ratio (excluding amortization of core deposit intangibles) decreased to 51% from 55% in the prior year.

Mortgage Banking net income was $332 million, compared with $34 million in the prior year. Net revenue was $1.1 billion, up $649 million.

- Net revenue comprises production revenue and net mortgage servicing revenue.
- Production revenue was $321 million, up $106 million, benefiting from an increase in mortgage loan originations and the classification of certain loan origination costs as expense (loan origination costs previously netted against revenue commenced being recorded as an expense in the first quarter of 2007 due to the adoption of SFAS 159). These benefits were offset partially by the absence of prior-year gains on subprime mortgage loan sales and markdowns on the mortgage warehouse and pipeline in the current quarter.

- Net mortgage servicing revenue, which includes loan servicing revenue, MSR risk management results and other changes in fair value, was $738 million, compared with $195 million in the prior year.
- Loan servicing revenue of $665 million increased by $67 million on growth of 17% in third-party loans serviced. MSR risk management revenue of $466 million improved $497 million from the prior year, reflecting a $499 million valuation adjustment to the MSR asset due to a decrease in estimated future mortgage prepayments, which positively affected the fair value of the MSR asset.

- Other changes in fair value of the MSR asset were negative $393 million compared with negative $372 million in the prior year.
- Noninterest expense was $518 million, an increase of $164 million, or 46%. The increase reflected the classification of certain loan origination costs due to the adoption of SFAS 159, higher servicing costs due to increased delinquencies and defaults, and higher production expense due in part to growth in originations.

Mortgage loan originations were $40 billion, up 34% from the prior year and 2% from the prior quarter.

- Total third-party mortgage loans serviced were $614.7 billion, an increase of $88 billion, or 17%, from the prior year.
- Auto Finance net income was $49 million, a decrease of $16 million, or 25%, from the prior year. Net revenue was $450 million, up $39 million, or 9%, reflecting higher automobile operating lease revenue.
- The provision for credit losses was $133 million, up $36 million, reflecting an increase in estimated losses.

- The net charge-off rate was 1.27% compared with 0.75% in the prior year.
- Noninterest expense of $237 million increased by $30 million, or 14%, driven by increased depreciation expense on owned automobiles subject to operating leases.
- Auto loan originations were $5.6 billion, up 12% from the prior year.
- Average loan receivables were $41.1 billion, up 6% from the prior year.

Card Services

- Net income was $609 million, a decrease of $110 million, or 15%, from the prior year. The decrease was driven by an increase in the provision for credit losses offset primarily by higher net managed revenue and lower noninterest expense.
- End-of-period managed loans of $157.1 billion increased by $4.2 billion, or 3%, from the prior year and $8 billion, or 5%, from the prior quarter.
Average managed loans of $151.7 billion increased $4.4 billion, or 3%, from the prior year and $3.1 billion, or 2%, from the prior quarter. The increases in both end-of-period and average managed loans resulted from organic growth.

- Net managed revenue was $4 billion, an increase of $221 million, or 6%, from the prior year.
- Net interest income was $3.1 billion, up $195 million, or 7%, from the prior year. The increase in net interest income was driven by a higher level of fees, a wider loan spread and higher average loan balances. These benefits were offset partially by the discontinuation of certain billing practices (including the elimination of certain over-limit fees and the two-cycle billing method for calculating finance charges beginning in the second quarter of 2007) and the effect of higher revenue reversals associated with higher charge-offs.

- Noninterest revenue was $834 million, an increase of $26 million, or 3%, from the prior year. The increase was due primarily to higher net interchange income on growth in charge volume.
- Charge volume growth of 2% reflected an 8% increase in sales volume, offset primarily by a lower level of balance transfers, the result of more targeted marketing efforts.
- The managed provision for credit losses was $1.8 billion, an increase of $507 million, or 40%, from the prior year, due to an increase of $300 million in the allowance for loan losses and a higher level of charge-offs. The managed net charge-off rate was 3.89%, up from 3.45% in the prior year and 3.64% in the prior quarter.
- The 30-day managed delinquency rate was 3.48%, up from 3.13% in the prior year and 3.25% in the prior quarter.
- Noninterest expense was $1.2 billion, a decrease of $118 million, or 9%, compared with the prior year, primarily due to lower marketing expense.

- Return on equity was 17%, down from 20% in the prior year.
- Pretax income to average managed loans (ROO) was 2.51%, down from 3.04% in the prior year and 3.31% in the prior quarter.
- Net interest income as a percentage of average managed loans was 8.20%, up from 7.92% in the prior year, but down from 8.29% in the prior quarter.
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