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Earnings Calls: 
Deere & Company Second Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 3:18 AM EDT May 16 2008


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Revenue increased 18% to $8.1 billion from $6.88 billion. Equipment sales were below the Deere''s forecast for the April quarter, coming in at 19% growth vs. an expected 23%. Operating profit from Deere''s construction and forestry equipment unit slipped 14% to $166 million as sales declined 7% to $1.35 billion. Deere reaffirmed projections calling for income of $2.2 billion for the full fiscal year on equipment sales growth of 20%.


Investors Question and Answers

 
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Sequential Earnings Growth | Quarterly Earnings by Year | Quarterly Earnings Growth by Year

Source: Company filings    Q1:January  Q2:April  Q3:July  Q4:October
 
Mark Koznarek (Cleveland Research Company): How much do you expect the underlying market retail sales outlook on the North American construction equipment business to be down percent this year?

Marie Z. Ziegler: We are down on the retail end for United States and Canadian retail construction we are down in the 15% to 20% range. We are being helped by the fact that last year we had taken $250 million out of our inventories and the other area that we have not focused much on is that we even though the United States and Canadian markets are weak, we are seeing growth in forestry markets outside the US and Canada and even although off a small base, even some activity in our construction equipment markets outside the US and Canada.

Robert McCarthy (Robert W. Baird): Your South American forecast reads retail up 30% now instead of 15%, yet you identify, especially in the case of Argentina, two significant risk factors. What exactly are you assuming in your upgraded forecast?

Marie Z. Ziegler: Let me clarify the risk factors. One was cited for Brazil in terms of the status of the payments under Phenom and then the other one was the impact, of the export tax on commodities, essentially soybeans. That has been discussed although it is on other agricultural commodities as well. 30% represents our best estimate, an assessment of what will happen the next six months. We felt, though, there were these two big issues that were looming and ultimately how they play out we do not know, but 30% is our best estimate.

Robert McCarthy (Robert W. Baird): Are you specifically making a call on whether Argentinean farmers are going to quit protesting and go back to work?

Marie Z. Ziegler: I would not presume that to try to make a call one way or the other. This is based on what our own order positions are, what we are hearing from customers in the market, etc., and again that up 30% is an industry look for all of America.

Robert McCarthy (Robert W. Baird): How is the agricultural tire situation impacting your outlook?

Marie Z. Ziegler: I think the situation has tightened in the last 90 days and I would point out that we have increased our production outlook for worldwide ag and tractors would be part of that. Our suppliers are doing a good job of meeting our needs in the face of such significant increase. We felt that it would be appropriate to point out that we may have some spot issues in terms of availability. Our forecast reflects our best estimate of our availability of materials so we are not trying to gain the system so to speak but just make you aware that things are tighter than they were. We are seeing pressure in steel and tires and all kinds of oil-related commodities, so there is pressure on that end, but additionally with the rapid increase in schedules, not only from us but for the industry, there is a fair amount of pressure on our suppliers who are working hard to meet our needs but in the face of such big increases, sometimes it gets more exciting.

Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): In your second half forecast, are you assuming that the currency levels stay where they are?

Marie Z. Ziegler: Yes.

Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): If the dollar went up, for example, then that currency effect might be less than you are forecasting?

Marie Z. Ziegler: You are correct.

Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): On your incremental margin statement, 30%, which line are you talking about?

Marie Z. Ziegler: Operating profit and net sales and we are looking at the change year over year in net sales and the change year over year in operating profit and the 30% is an objective that we have for the construction and forestry equipment and the agricultural divisions on average over time. That is not a projection for any one quarter.

Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): Does this include after you have subtracted SG&A allocation?

Marie Z. Ziegler: Yes. That is correct.

Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): This 30% can only be achieved within a small volume range because if you achieve that over time, your operating margin would approach 30% as methodically. Is that correct?

Marie Z. Ziegler: It would depend on when we see growth opportunities and when we choose to make investments. When we look at the future of our ag business, the fact that we are putting a new facility in Russia, we are adding capacity at Waterloo. You see a good level candidly of capital expenditures as we are looking at opportunities in many product lines in many countries and we see a bright future that we would not be making these investments if we did not see good return opportunities as we move over time.

Robert Wertheimer (Morgan Stanley): You took up the production volumes and the revenues 5% in the guidance. You mentioned that this is a hindrance to achieving your results. Does that mean it would have been up more ex the components issue or does that mean it is a hindrance more in the third quarter and you have confidence that it is getting better in the fourth one?

Marie Z. Ziegler: We expected that we will continue to see challenges off and on throughout the year. We are pleased with the fact that we were able to take our product ion up from in worldwide ag from 23% to about 28%.
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