In the second quarter, companywide capacity is up 8.3% over 2007 and there is only a small amount of inventory left to sell in the second quarter.
- Northern American cruise brand capacity is up 3% in the second quarter; 52% of that capacity is Caribbean, down from 55% in 2007.
- Mexican Riviera is 13% versus 11% in 2007, and the remaining capacity is spread amongst various other itineraries.
- North American occupancy is up 1.5 points year-over-year and pricing is well ahead of last year.
Mexican Riviera pricing is approximately flat and pricing of most of other itineraries are higher year-over-year with the exception of the Alaska season which is slightly down.
- For the European brands, second quarter capacity is up 23% on a year-over-year basis.
- Europe''s second quarter occupancy on an overall basis is running slightly behind 2007 with pricing slightly ahead.
- Europe capacity 59% in European itineraries which is up 7 points from 52% in last year; 16% in the Caribbean, 11% in TransAtlantic, both approximately the same as last year.
Europe itinerary pricing is up year-over-year and pricing in all other itineraries is relatively flat with the prior year.
- On a company-wide basis the firm is currently forecasting yields in the second quarter to be in the 6.5% to 7.5% range; on a local currency basis that would be 2.5% to 3.5%.
- The stronger yields are driven primarily by stronger Caribbean pricing.
Based on the forward price for fuel of $528 metric ton, the increase in second quarter fuel costs is approximately a $161 million over 2007 second quarter or 20 cents per share.
- EPS for the second quarter is now expected to be in the range of 42 cents to 44 cents versus 48 cents year-ago second quarter.
- On a companywide basis capacity for third quarter is up 8.8%; at this time overall third quarter occupancy is up slightly year over year and pricing is well ahead.
- North American capacity is up 2% year over year, primarily resulting from the delivery of Carnival Splendor and HAL’s Eurodam in the early summer.
Europe brand capacity is up 24%, in the third quarter, Europe brand capacity is substantially all based in the Mediterranean and Northern Europe during the summer quarter.
- European local currency revenue yields are forecasted to be approximately flat by the time the third quarter closes.
- Now turning to the fourth quarter, companywide capacity for the fourth quarter is up
- For the second half of the year as a whole year-over-year increase in revenue yield isa forecasted, the increase should be lower than the first half of the year.
Key questions and anwers from the first quarter fiscal 2008 earnigs call as conducted by Carnival Corp. on March 20, 2008
Robin Farley (UBS): Give us more color on the items of onboard spend?
Micky Arison: As far as onboard revenue, it stayed within the context of the contemporary brands. We have not seen it in the premium brands. It is pretty much across the board.
If people are not buying homes and decorating homes they are likely to buy less art. So, the art revenue may be down more than average. On the other hand, people are taking vacations and going to places for the first time and are continuing to buy shore excursions so shore excursions would be down less or not down at all.
Felicia Hendrix (Lehman Brothers): Did you buy back any shares in the quarter?
Beth Roberts: It would be anti-dilution. The convertibles in the first quarter were dilutive, which reduced the share count in the first quarter.
Timothy Conder (Wachovia): Regarding the fuel, $40 million you pulled out of your assumption for the balance of the year, or is that for the full year encompassing the first quarter?
David Bernstein: The $40 million is for the full year encompassing the first quarter. First quarter was $5 million in the balance of the year.
Timothy Conder (Wachovia): You would anticipate that being spread according to historical revenue spreads in the quarter?
David Bernstein: It was related to existing bookings on November 7th, when we announced the program so it may not be spread between the second, third and fourth quarter in accordance with all revenues because the second quarter would have been more booked than the third and the fourth at that time.
Timothy Conder (Wachovia): What are your thoughts on the global credit markets?
Micky Arison: Basically we have completed in total ten Italian export credits, five of which are drawn and five are yet to be drawn. We had done two German, one has been drawn and one is yet to be drawn.
In total for 2008 basically we have enough committed credit to make it through the balance of the year for the ship commitments and also the refunding.
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