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Earnings Calls: 
Canadian National Railway Company Fourth Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 12:05 PM EST January 30 2008


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Revenue fell 3% to C$1.94 billion from C$2 billion a year ago. Results included a benefit of C$0.57 per share from a deferred income-tax recovery, as well as C$0.21 per share from asset sales. Excluding such special items, Canadian National Railway''s profit was flat at C$0.90 per share. The company faced strong headwind from a weak U.S. housing market, a stronger Canadian dollar, a strike and weather-related issues in Western Canada.


Investors Question and Answers

 
Sequential Earnings Growth | Quarterly Earnings by Year | Quarterly Earnings Growth by Year

Source: Company filings    Q1:March  Q2:June  Q3:September  Q4:December
 
James M. Foote: Our pricing is consistent from business unit to business unit. What makes me confident that pricing in 2008 is going to be good is because most of our contracts, number one are two to three years in duration, so anywhere between 66 and a third of our business is already priced for next year, and that is in the range that we have talked about in the past 3% to 4%. Those prices are already locked in for 2008 and the price that I am getting on my current contracts is higher than that.

Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): Are there any significant long term legacy contracts coming up?

James M. Foote: No, we do not have any long term legacy contracts. All our business is contracts for about two to three years and therefore we have been pricing in these ranges for the last five to six years and steadily improving on our price tick, which has been reflected in our yield numbers in the past.

Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): Fuels are positive, mix is a negative and FX is negative. How do you get from positive four to negative three?

James M. Foote: The reported fourth quarter revenue number was zero. The impact is extreme.

Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): How much surcharges are?

James M. Foote: There would be a positive impact in the quarter from price; there would be a positive impact in the quarter from fuel.

Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): Is fuel part of that 4% or is that separate?

James M. Foote: That would be separate from that.

Claude Mongeau: What you have to recognize is that the fuel is not as large as you would expect because there is a two month lag in our fuel surcharge. The fuel surcharge WTI price during the quarter was no where near the $91 spot price that we paid for our expense. Year-over-year fuel surcharges are up and the volume was up.

Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): What are you seeing on exports back through Prince Rupert?

James M. Foote: In various different commodities, the backhaul opportunities that we have talked to, ranging from machinery to paper products, working with a number of different customers today on non-traditional bulk products that have the potential to move via container. We are working hard there and working Costco and those opportunities are coming on.

Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): Does the $100 million include backhaul or is that gravy if that develops?

James M. Foote: That would be gravy. This backhaul business is going to take us a while for us to develop. We are in the process right now of just building a facility in Chicago where we can fill containers with the derivative products from the ethanol productions. We have a signed some arrangements with customers to bring products in there but that is going to be 10% of the ethanol volume filled throughout 2008.

Randy Cousins (BMO Capital Market): Do you see earnings growth evenly spread over the year or are you betting on recovery in volume in the second half and a slow start to the year?


Claude Mongeau: Last year, is when we had the labor disruption, so we are going to have an easy comparison in the first quarter, and then after that we are seeing the business back end should be better because we are expecting the economy to come out of the slump that we are seeing in some of the sectors in terms of weakness. Some of the initiative, the growth of Rupert, the bulk business, all of that is stuff that we can deliver in the front end of the year because it is in front of us, we just have to be fluid and run the railroad.

Randy Cousins (BMO Capital Market): Your guidance does not require recovery in economic activity in the second half to get your numbers, it just a case of executing on the business plan. Is that correct?

Claude Mongeau: We do assume that the back end, when the economy will rebound. In terms of our EPS the first quarter is an easy comparison and we have initiative that could grow throughout every quarter.

Randy Cousins (BMO Capital Market): Is equity linked compensation tied to a US dollar calculation or is it the Canadian dollar and do how does it work?
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