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Earnings Calls: 
Advance Auto Parts Third Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Albena Toncheva
123jump.com
Last Update: 8:40 AM EST November 05 2007


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The leading retailer of the automotive parts reported revenue of $1.16 billion, up from $1.10 billion in prior year. While the same store sales of Do-it-Yourself fell by 1%, the commercial same store sales grew by 8%. In the quarter, the firm recorded a pretax charge of $6.3 million in severance costs related to its position eliminations and asset write-offs associated with shutting down the Advance TV Network. For Q4, the company reaffirmed the same store sales guidance of zero to 2%.


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Source: Company filings    Q1:March  Q2:June  Q3:September  Q4:December
 
Dan Wewer (Raymond James): Am I correct in understanding the $20 million savings in 2008 is in addition to the $50 million outlined in recent quarters, but at the same time, the point where you would expect SG&A leverage is going to be 2% in 2008 rather than the 1% to 2% range?

Jack Brouillard: The $20 million is on top of the $50 million. For the various topics that involve it, it will unfold during the year and we feel on an annualized basis, we''ve put $70 million worth of savings in place. For next year, that $70 million along with our continuing initiatives will allow us to leverage SG&A in that 2% comp range.

Michael Moore: As we''ve made these significant reductions, we will be able to leverage at a 2% comp next year. On a long term basis though, we need a 2% to 3% comp on a long term basis.

Dan Wewer (Raymond James): You mentioned about the decision not to complete any additional 2010 remodels given the returns were nil. On the other hand, it is critical for retailers to maintain a fresh store base. Are you considering testing some new remodels for the existing stores or is it just simply on hold for the next two years?

Jack Brouillard: One thing that should be a distinction is we''ve set aside plenty of capital and expense going forward to maintain the physical condition of the stores and that includes exterior painting and things like that. The expense was fixtures and a lot of this inside work which was not proving out to be very cost effective. I don''t want to give anyone the impression that we''re going to let our physical plant rundown because that''s not our intent. When and if we come up with some ideas which we will over time, about improving adjacencies and remodels, we''ll get back into it. The prior program was expensive and not producing results. It doesn''t mean we''ve shut off the idea going forward.

Scott Ciccarelli (RBC Capital Markets): What do you see as the key to improving commercial same store sales? Is it just the greater inventory investment? Is it more aggressive sales tactics? What is the pushback you get from potential commercial customers that you weren''t servicing?

Jim Wade: If you look at our past several years, we have had a track record of some strong same store sales increases in commercial, and last year, we had less focus on commercial and our same store sales were lower although they were still reasonably good.

What we''re doing now is we''ve talked about focus, ensuring that our entire team realizes the importance of growing it. All of the initiatives that we''ve talked about align very well with commercial along with DIY, and that''s a big part of the parts availability expansion. It''s a big part of the parts knowledge focus. In addition to that, we''re doing a number of things within the company to better allow us to drive the commercial business.

As we did the commercial research over the last several months, we''re overall positioned probably better than we''ve been able to explain with the commercial customer. The opportunity is there and with the focus and with the additional availability, we can continue to see and to ramp up what you saw in the third quarter.

Seth Basham and Gary Balter (Credit Suisse): Looking at the expense initiatives for 2008, could you potentially rank order the buckets of improvement? What''s going to be the biggest savings initiative?

Michael Moore: From the $20 million, the two biggest items would be marketing and advertising and non-merchandise purchasing. Those two combined would be well over $10 million out of the savings. Behind that would be the utilities like transportation, staffing and occupancy. There''s a lot of opportunity to drive down occupancy cost but it takes time and we will achieve those savings over time as we open new stores going forward and the occupancy savings should be greater going forward beyond 2008.

Seth Basham and Gary Balter (Credit Suisse): We''re watching oil hit $96 and could you talk about your thoughts if oil stays up here, how this impacts your projections for next year and your thinking about cost controls, given that the top line may be more challenging?

Jack Brouillard: Internally, you think about your transportation cost of fuel and we''ve addressed that through some forward contracting and we feel good where we are vis-a-vis that. I do think if the price of gasoline follows as people say it will, then it further increases the headwinds, particularly on our side, per customer. It''s embedded in, we should not be planning for a robust consumer next year and that''s why in our initial thinking we''re thinking 1% to 2% comps.

Tony Cristello (BB&T Capital Markets): You talked about the 5% increase for inventory. How you came about that being the right number? Was that a product of soliciting an opinion from your commercial segment? Was it looking at where parts were not in stock when needed? Is that a number that could go higher as this process evolves?

Elwyn Murray: The input or the sources of why the product we''ve put came from a number of sources. Clearly looking at the data that''s available through the industry to understand what type of vehicle registration there are in different markets has clearly been a key informant, particularly when it comes to import coverage. We also solicited a significant amount of feedback from our field on what are we missing and that as well translated into the significant chunk of this dollar figure. We will continue to look at the sources of data and continue to increase inventory over time in the right categories.

Simultaneously, it requires an active management of the tail, if you will, of things that you no longer need in your network. This is not a “one and done” type of initiative. It''s a major thrust for us right now but we will continue to make parts investments going forward and simultaneously work the less productive out of the equation.

Rick Weinhart (BMO Capital Markets): On the labor model you''re using in your stores, is it safe to say at this point that you''ve now reviewed the compensation structure and that you''re happy with what you currently have in place? Do you have any thoughts on changing to a commission model?

Jim Wade: That''s one of the things that we''re looking at. Through an internal review as well as using some external resources, we''ve been looking at every aspect of our model and certainly, commercial incentives and incentives overall is a component of that analysis. We''re not at a point yet where we have made any final decisions internally and certainly not to a point where we are implementing, but that will be in some way a portion of our plan as we go forward.

Rick Weinhart (BMO Capital Markets): On the hedging strategy for fuel costs, can you clarify whether you had a hedge in place and when that expires? Do you have any data in terms of what the impact was?

Elwyn Murray: A little distinct from a hedge, this is actually a forward contract. We have storage tanks in our distribution centers for diesel in particular, we''re not specifically a hedge as much as a forward contractor purchase.
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