Key questions from the first quarter earnings call conducted by Terex Corporation on April 24, 2008.
Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): What you expect in terms of order of magnitude the price that you are looking at to offset those steel cost increases?
Ronald M. DeFeo: We are trying not to be so specific that somebody can simply paintbrush a price increase because it is all about each on of our individual businesses. We expect to recover the full amount of our cost increases. That will vary because in our Crane business we have the opportunity to have some escalation, particularly in our larger cranes. Our Aerial Work Platforms business will be more challenged, particularly in the short-term, to recover that increase although we are going to work hard to do that. It varies by business. It is our intent within the next to 6 to 12 months to fully recover our entire cost. If you reflect upon the last time steel went up significantly, which is in the 2004 period, most companies, ourselves included, were caught flat-footed relative to how to price to recover these kinds of increases. We learned our lessons, but that does not make it any easier. We have a good roadmap. While others are out there saying we are going to take prices up 5% or up to 5%, I do not think that is an appropriate way to give guidance here because we want to take prices up as necessary to recover the cost, no more but certainly no less.
Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): Within your guidance, what increase have you assumed for raw materials broadly?
Ronald M. DeFeo: We have looked at what our variances are. We think we have some sensitivity handicap. But if we give you that number, you are going to look at it and say what your contingency to your EPS guidance is. We look at this rather holistically because there are other things that are happening that are positive that may be offsetting this.
Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): How conservative or how aggressive your raw material assumptions in the back half of the year might be?
Ronald M. DeFeo: We have some agreements that we are seeing no increases in steel to speak of because we have commitments from those suppliers. But those contracts run off in the third quarter. We are not sure whether or not we are going to have 5% increases or 20% increases from some of our steel and we think there is some marketing that is taking place on the part of steel that would have them argue for greater increases and simultaneously we are going to argue for substantially lower increases because we are combining our purchasing power at this stage. We are in a supply battle where on one extreme you might say there is $100 million of risk and on another extreme we can mitigate virtually all of that both through pricing and through some purchasing leverage.
Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): Can you help us understand the timing of when you will be in a better position to know about that second half steel cost profile?
Tom Riordan: We need to be cautious about announcing any strong intent because, one, we have had a widely varying situation with our products and geographies and secondly, we also got a widely varying sensitivity on the part of differing end markets relative to pricing receptiveness. The steel companies themselves continue to foster and change their position somewhat in real-time as we speak and the story likely will come out over the next 90 days or so.
Andrew Casey (Wachovia Securities): Are you including the expected raw material pricing in the increased revenue guidance?
Ronald M. DeFeo: It was not pricing that caused us to improve our revenue guidance.
Andrew Casey (Wachovia Securities): On the normal 50/50 first half to second half seasonal earnings mix, do you expect that within this guidance to shift more heavily to the first half?
Ronald M. DeFeo: No.
Andrew Casey (Wachovia Securities): Do you expect the UK AWP customer consolidation issue to persist through this year or is it just contained in the first half?
Tim Ford: We think that the consolidation has a first-half affect. We believe that customers, once they get a sense for what their situation is, will begin to release some orders for second half.
Jamie Cook (Credit Suisse Securities): You said North America was up mid-single digit. When you had originally given guidance you talked more about a flat market. Could you comment on that?
Tim Ford: Our North American market has remained more buoyant than we thought it would in the fourth quarter. The customer base in the U.S. continues to perform well. We have had some market share gains that have been favorable for us, and all of our customers have not put orders in for the year. We are in a good position for the remainder of the year in North America. North America will be a decent story for us this year.
Jamie Cook (Credit Suisse Securities): On the Construction business, but within Western European the macro environment has deteriorated, which is a big part of the Aerial Work Platform business. How are you looking at those markets and how big is the developing markets at this point?
Ronald M. DeFeo: Aerial Work Platform profitability was up over last year, but as a percentage of our profit meaningfully down and that is due to the improving profit performance of our Crane business and our Materials Processing & Mining business which we have been saying for several years. The other thing that we have said for some time is the diversification of our revenue base outside of traditional markets and that continues. If you examine our business, while the Western European markets, particularly markets like the United Kingdom, Spain, some of the Southern European markets have shown a weakness not just in Aerial Work Platform business but also our Construction Product businesses, that is more than offset, in most of our businesses at least, by the strength in the Eastern European markets and the oil booming regions of the Middle East and in fact some beginning significant improvements in our revenue in Russia. We are seeing a move east and south from our European factories, that is being reflected both in our Aerial Work Platform business and to a degree in our Construction business. The Crane business remains solid across that range, and the Mining and Materials Processing business remains solid across those ranges.
Jamie Cook (Credit Suisse Securities): You only report backlog through the end of the year. Do you have orders that would go into 2009 and how would that compare to last year? |