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Earnings Calls: 
Morgan Stanley Fourth Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 1:21 PM EST December 21 2007


(Continued)

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The brokerage firm took an additional $5.7 billion mortgage-related writedown, while announced a $5 billion cash injection from a Chinese state-run investment fund. The return on average common equity from continuing operations was 7.8% compared to 23.8% the prior year. Institutional Securities posted a pre-tax loss of $6,479 million, reflecting the mortgage related writedowns. Global Wealth revenues of $6.6 billion were up 20% from 2006 driven by stronger transactional revenues.

 
 
Colm Kelleher: No, that is the continuation of what James had started and she plugs into that and continues to build that.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): The vintages are all 2005, early 2006 in the CDO holding. Is that right?

John Mack: 50% of the vintages are 2005.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): If it is only 50%, the remainder is later vintages where those ABS indices ended November flat with the October?

John Mack: We are confident that the valuation we gave as of 31 October was a right using consistent valuation methodology. Two things happened in November, which changed the valuation which we have to look to is identifiable inputs. One was the sell off in the 2005 collateral. Two is in risking this position, we did execute observable trades, which we have to calibrate to, and it was that calibration to external marks that has driven the valuations. There is a lot of stuff going on in the market without the counterparties, where circumstantially you are getting some evidence on pricing.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): Is it possible that some of these actual transactions occurred closer to mid month, as some of those other tranches were hitting their lows before they rebounded at the end of November?

John Mack: Yes.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): You have made changes in risk management. What has changed specifically to how things were running and what liability issues?

John Mack: In the past the way that risk monitoring was run, risk management reported into the President of ISG. The right reporting law is not to the business unit head or the divisions head that someone totally independent, who reports directly to me and that, is why we have made the change.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): What is the component that is going to report into Mitch Patrick?

John Mack: It is going to be Tom Daula, who is in our risk monitoring area, who will work closely with Walid Chammah and that his whole risk monitoring team but it will be that team reporting to our CFO. Then Mitch Patrick, who has over side for all trading sales, will not have a direct report to Colm, but we work closely with him. The key is that risk management now reports to someone outside of the division, and reports to our CFO.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): The fixed income business run rate without the charges was in the $1.1 billion range. Can you comment on the impacted November?

Colm Kelleher: The credit markets are where we have the greatest degree of uncertainty. There is no doubt that not just in the mortgage area, but in our credit markets broadly we are seeing little activity. We continued to see buoyant activity in our interest rates and currency business. This is our second best quarter ever, and that continues the pace, and we see demographic trends that will underscore that business and allow us to grow it. We see no fall off in activity there. Secondly, the fall off of our commodities business was not a result of fall off of flow. It was a result of poor trading, and we feel optimistic about that. In terms of the run rate on the fixed income business what you are looking at is a few quarters of contraction in the credit businesses until we can get some clarification on extension of credit to liquidity.

Roger Freeman (Lehman Brothers): Do you think investment banking is going to be up next year?

John Mack: Our investment banking pipelines are healthy. Our M&A pipelines are healthy. Our IPO pipelines are healthy. The world economy could change that could be contingent.

Mike Mayo (Deutsche Bank): On your super senior mezzanine, you have net $3.9 billion left; how much of that has been written down - you had $11 billion a year-ago, which would imply it is written down to 35 cents of a dollar, but it was $14 billion when you took the positions. That implies 29 cents of a dollar; can you give some color there?

John Mack: We have sold some but the problem with giving you that ratio is that you are not looking at like-to-like instruments in the street. All I can say is that we have used the valuation methodology where we are comfortable with the valuations we have taken, but these instruments have different attachment points, different vintages from house-to-house.

Mike Mayo (Deutsche Bank): Is that in the ballpark, like using $11 billion from a year ago?

Colm Kelleher: It is a function of the collateral tools underlying them; it is a function of the attachment points.

Mike Mayo (Deutsche Bank): Did you sell a lot or little?
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