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EOG Resources Third Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 7:05 AM EST November 05 2007


Natural gas producer reported revenue increase of 2.3% to $990.5 million, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $971 million in revenue. Domestic natural gas and natural gas liquids production rose 19% to 997 million cubic feet/day versus the same quarter in 2006, with the largest increase coming from the Fort Worth Basin Barnett Shale. Operating income fell to $325 million from $462 million, hit by higher transportation, well and other costs.

 
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Key questions from the third quarter earnings call conducted by EOG Resources Inc. on October 30, 2007.

Brian Singer (Goldman Sachs): Could you comment on the Bakken play and on the well communications at EURs as you start to pilot the 320 acre downspacing?

Mark G. Papa: Our belief is that it is analogous to the Barnett in that the initial recoveries we are getting of total oil in place are low. We need some time and we will find a way to improve recoveries and one way to improve recoveries is to have more intense spacing of wells and while we are talking in Johnson County of going to 40 acre spacing. In this case, the concept will be 320 acre spacing. We will be drilling our first pilot well within a month in the 320 acre spacing, and seeing how that turns out. It will be an iterative process and it will take us about six months to get an understanding of 320 is the proper way to go or not. It is not going to be a magic bullet where we drill one well and say it works or it does not work.
Our feeling on the overall play is that we think the play is going to be bigger in terms of size, in terms of how many miles long and how many miles wide; it is as we do more stepout drilling. We think the play will get bigger that way and then we think that in terms of how much oil or what percent of oil in place we will ultimately recover that we will find some way to get that 9% up to a more robust number too.

Brian Singer (Goldman Sachs): When you look at the swing in the 13% to 17% growth target for next year it sounds like Barnett is flat. On your various other plays could you talk to where you plan vary?

Mark G. Papa: Uinta Basin is one of the bigger swing plays. The Uinta is one that we can throttle down or ramp up. The advantage we have in the Uinta Basin is, we do not have any lease expiry deadlines or anything like that. It is all held by production. If I had to pick one single area that would be our biggest lever to move up or down, it would be the Uinta Basin. Other swing area will be Canada, as to how many shallow gas wells drilled in $7 versus $8 gas. It will also occur in other divisions such as the South Texas to Mid-Continent area, East Texas area.

Brian Singer (Goldman Sachs): Do you think that the Uinta Basin needs 750 gas to be economic?

Mark G. Papa: It flies at $7 gas, but it is just a case of do we want to run every single part of the company at maximum intensity, if we are seeing an oversupplied gas market. If gas is $7 we are seeing an oversupplied gas market. It is more of a case of do we want to further contribute to an oversupplied gas markets by pouring more gas onto that market. It would be a sign where EOG says we have already got an oversupplied market, do we in areas where we have the flexibility to just delay drilling, do we want to create more supplies such as in Uinta Basin? We are not going to push it that hard in 2008.

Thomas L. Gardner (Simmons & Company): Does your low end of 2008 production guidance imply a flat rig count?

Mark G. Papa: A flat rig count to where we are running now is a good direction. We are running about 70 to 75 rigs right now. To grow with the 13% we would keep it at relatively flat rig count.

Brian Singer (Goldman Sachs): If you keep your rig count flat in the Barnett, at what point do you see the decline rate offsetting the positive production, impact of horizontal drilling?

Mark G. Papa: What happened in the Barnett is we are shifting a significant amount of our fleet from these conventional rigs to these automated single rigs, and we get more wells drilled with the same rig using this automated single rig because we are drilling them faster. We are getting more real wells drilled using 20 rigs than we were using 20 rigs a year ago. It boils down to more the well count. What I give you is in our $7 case for the Barnett in 2008, we intend to drill 350 wells, in the $8 case, we intend to drill about 415 wells.

Thomas L. Gardner (Simmons & Company): If the incremental benefits are not coming from rigs, what are they coming from?

Mark G. Papa: What differentiates us from the other producers in the Barnett is that we are getting better productivity per well and better reserves per well than the rest of the players. We have used Railroad Commission data and other data particularly in Johnson County to get comparisons for that and our initial production rates per well appear to be anywhere from 30% to 50% better than the rest of the other companies up there. We believe we have more efficient completion technique that we do not disclose exactly what we will do. The fact that we are talking about 450 million cubic feet a day next year, and we have made zero acquisition in the Barnett speaks for itself that we are the only the one to be generating that kind of production without making multi-hundred million or in many cases multi-billion dollar acquisitions in the Barnett.

Thomas L. Gardner (Simmons & Company): What is your recent view for the relative value gap between oil and gas in Bakken?

Mark G. Papa: This value gap of close to a 2 to 1 BTU pricing disparity, can last the next several years but long term people will find a way to make that gap converged by getting ways to utilize gas, where they are currently utilizing oil. Over the next year, we will see some convergence between gas and oil, and I do not think it is going to be with seeing oil prices come down significantly. I do not think the convergence is going to come in that method. Directionally we will see gas prices move upwards. If we have a winter that is like a 10-year average or 30-year average winter we could see a startling surprise in natural gas prices this winter to the upside. Although we are hedging some gas, we will not be the kind of company that ends up hedging 50% of our gas or anything like that. The upper limit on our hedging might be 30%-35% as we currently see it. We think it is possible to have a $9 Henry Hub price for calendar year 2008. All one would need is a winter that tends toward a somewhere between the 10 and 30 year winter and $9 a gas is well assured.

Benjamin Dell (Sanford C. Bernstein & Co): Could you give clarity on your assumptions around sales for the Appalachian and what volume in terms of at 2P reserves you are looking to sell?

Gary L. Thomas: Our PDP reserves there are somewhere around 200 to 250 Bcf.

Benjamin Dell (Sanford C. Bernstein & Co): You believe that some convergence is likely. Does that suggest you should be hedging the oil and not hedging the gas rather than the other way around?

Mark G. Papa: The way we view the natural gas market is just the weather bet this winter. If we have a warm winter, gas prices could easily be $7 and if you have a winter that tends for the 30-year winter, you are going to have gas prices that will average $9 for the calendar year. If we can hedge gas around the 850 price range and hedge perhaps 30% of it or so that is a comfortable position to be in. On the oil side, our own opinion is that while there might be some emotion in the oil price today, there is worldwide demand of 86 million barrels a day and you have worldwide capacity today of 88 million barrels a day. The IDA is forecasting in five years that demand is likely to grow by 10 million barrels a day and I do not believe that the world, the industry can grow supply by 10 million barrels a day in five years. We have a perpetually tight supply-demand scenario unless we have a global economic slowdown.

Benjamin Dell (Sanford C. Bernstein & Co): Canada and the UK last year seemed to under-perform your U.S. business. You seem to have much more focus on the Barnett and the Bakken this year. Do those businesses still fit with your core areas?

Mark G. Papa: There are a lot of opportunities out there and one of them would be, shale gas opportunities with horizontal drilling. One of our potential growth opportunities there that we are pursuing is shale gas in Canada although we have been rather vague about where. In the UK, we are trying to figure out what the real gas price is over there. It is back up to $10. We think there are growth opportunities. We have muted growth expectations for the next several years there. For the next year or two we do not have any intention of selling our position in UK.

David Heikkinen (Tudor Pickering): Activity levels with an assumption of 13% growth give you a flat capital budget to be reasonable year-over-year. Could you comment on that?

Mark G. Papa: The reason we have not given any details on the CapEx is we have not finalized the number down to the nearest $100 million, and we do not want to give guidance and then to change in three months by $100 million.
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