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Earnings Calls: 
Dow Chemical First Quarter Earnings Call
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 3:25 AM EDT May 03 2008


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The diversified chemical company posted Q1 record sales with broad-based price gains, strong volume growth in emerging geographies and record performance from Dow AgroSciences. Q1 sales rose 19% versus the same period last year to $14.8 billion. The net income dipped 3.3% from last year quarter of $973 million to $941 million for the current quarter. In Q2, raw material costs are forecast to be a key challenge and management will focus on price volume management across the whole portfolio.

 
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It's based on history; we've done 11 smaller acquisitions. The probability is that they will stay small until the right opportunity presents itself that's bigger. Meantime, the deadline of the close of our Kuwait deal increases the probability that share buyback will become a reality and we're fine with that. We're preserving optionality and we're doing share buyback. It's a big and. That's how we're managing the precious cash our shareholders give us the right to manage.

Hassan Ahmed (HSBC Securities): It is commendable that despite the $2.2 billion run up in feedstock costs, you reported flat year-on-year EPS. How much of an offset to those high raw material prices did currency provide?

Geoffery E. Merszei: We do have a very strong international presence. That, of course, does translate into the benefits of a weaker U.S. dollar. But, our international footprint is very much with a local presence. In other words, we have very large fixed assets. In fact, the Euro is the largest component on the currency side. In Europe, 30% of our company's fixed assets and employees are located in Europe. We therefore have a fairly sizable offset on the cost side. On the pricing side, less than one-third of the price increase is attributed to the stronger Euro or the weaker U.S. dollar. In addition, in the last quarter or two, there's been a very strong correlation between the commodity prices, i.e., oil and the U.S. dollar. Historically, the correlation may have been considerably lower, maybe 10%. However, over the most recent times, there's been a flight from the dollar to commodities; the metals and oil. I would therefore expect that if there were a major correction in the currency market, that you would see a similar correction on the commodity side which would also benefit us.

William Young (Chemspeak): How long do you think the pain will last in the ethylene overcapacity cycle over the next number of years, especially realizing that you still expect to earn $3 at the trough?

Geoffery E. Merszei: Pain is always relative. We clearly have said that we're going to see capacity at the back end of this year that will cause oversupply. However, the Iranian stuff is still sputtering and it's not all going to come on seamlessly. To the extent that 2009 will have some little more capacity than 2010, then clearly 2011 will have a lot more. There is probably a jagged ride down to an ethylene trough but remember we have announced our Kuwait deal. We've announced all of our low cost investments. There was a question about the EQUATE expansion; not the one we're talking about but the one that we'll talk about maybe in the future. We therefore have mitigating factors that gives us confidence that our proportionate share of that decline can still, on a proforma basis, reach the target we talked about $3 of the trough.
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