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Earnings Calls: 
Dow Chemical First Quarter Earnings Call
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 3:25 AM EDT May 03 2008


The diversified chemical company posted Q1 record sales with broad-based price gains, strong volume growth in emerging geographies and record performance from Dow AgroSciences. Q1 sales rose 19% versus the same period last year to $14.8 billion. The net income dipped 3.3% from last year quarter of $973 million to $941 million for the current quarter. In Q2, raw material costs are forecast to be a key challenge and management will focus on price volume management across the whole portfolio.

 
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Key questions and answers from the first quarter fiscal 2008 earnings call conducted by The Dow Chemical Company on April 24, 2008.

Gregg Goodnight (UBS): Can you provide an update on your anticipated start for major projects like the HPPO and EQUATE II projects? Do you expect either of these projects to deliver meaningful earnings this year or we will see more of the impact next year?

Andrew Liveris: The HPPO project with BASF in Antwerp has had some delays and we expected it to start towards the back half this year. The EQUATE expansion will come up in phases; the third quarter will see the ethylene and EOEG plant come up and the poly ethylene will come up in the early part of next year. There will be some impact from that and the PO project later in the year.

Gregg Goodnight (UBS): Do you think that when the HIPPO unit gets running, you are going to deliver margins in excess of what are currently being seen by alternate technologies like POSM?

Andrew Liveris: In the announcement that both Dow and BASF made when we announced the building of that plant, we referenced to lower capital intensity, more energy efficiency and lower waste as three major improvements compared to POSM. We stick by those three statements and that was in an energy world of three years ago. In an energy world of today, that's even better, obviously you have a new asset and you've got to go through a high capitalization base but we believe it's competitively advantaged versus POSM. As a consequence of that, this will add new margin to us over the short to medium-term.

David Begleiter (Deutsche Bank): As we approach the conclusion of the PIC joint venture, is your thought process still that there are no large acquisitions visible and you would deploy that cash to share buybacks more aggressively?

Andrew Liveris: Our discipline is intact on the M&A front. We've had several years of strict discipline. As the Kuwait deal looms to close, the share buyback option becomes more and more probable. We've always said we're going to preserve our optionality in case one of the targets we've been interested in becomes more realizable. As the year goes by, what you'll see from us is patience, prudence and discipline and as the Kuwait deal gets closer to close, the chances of share buyback increase quite dramatically.

David Begleiter (Deutsche Bank): Should we expect Q1 level of buyback, 11 million to 12 million shares, to be similar for Q2 and Q3?

Geoffery E. Merszei: We've been consistent with how we've been executing this program. We've been averaging about $400 million worth 10 million to 11 million shares and we also indicated to you early last year that we probably complete program by mid this year and we are on target.

Jeffery Zekauskas (JP Morgan): Can you provide update on when the PIC deal is supposed to close and whether there is any change in financial terms since you disclosed the Memorandum of Understanding?

Geoffery E. Merszei: First of all, we don't expect any change in the financial terms. In fact, our discussions are taking place as we speak. There have been no showstoppers. The site visits have been completed and we are very confident that we will close the transaction this year.

Mark Connelly (Credit Suisse): Looking at the agricultural chemical unit of the business after we strip out new product launches, can you comment on the impact of pricing and margins on the existing business?

Kathleen C. Fothergill: The new product launches represent a fairly small percentage of the total revenue. Therefore, the margins that you're seeing for the total segment are principally indicative of what existing businesses are like.

Mark Connelly (Credit Suisse): Are the average prices up low single-digits or mid- single digits?

Kathleen C. Fothergill: The prices are up. In Agricultural Sciences, we have what was reported externally and it was about 16%.

Sergey Vasnetsov (Lehman Brothers): There are some initial positive comments in the industry on extra ethane availability in Kuwait and this could allow more of the highly efficient plants to be built there. In the future, ethane Glycol may even be a cracker. What’s your outlook for the Kuwait 3?

Andrew Liveris: The comments you have been hearing in the public domain relate to the north field. There are many companies, from oil and gas point of view, who are looking at partnering with Kuwait Petroleum. Clearly, our incumbency with PIC, KPC, EQUATE I, EQUATE II opens the opportunity and North Fields present us with basic reasons why this partnership makes enormous sense. We think there is great likelihood of a new project out there in the future but we won't make any public statements because our partnership cements that.

Sergey Vasnetsov (Lehman Brothers): Can you give us update on the Russian oil project?

Andrew Liveris: The project is doing well. Every joint venture stands alone and the interface between joint ventures is something that we are good at and we've been working very hard. We are making sure that as we get closer to the Kuwait deal that very critical projects like the Saudi ARAMCO remain as critical to the company as any project we have out there. In fact, it is probably a defining project in terms of the building blocks for our performance businesses. We will get to the stage this year where everything is on track. The partnership is great. We are in regular dialogue with the Kuwaitis at a team level and we had equal amount of resources pointed at the Saudi project. We are very confident that it will proceed as a county plant.

P.J. Juvekar (Citi): Your unallocated expenses were about $132 million, which was quite low compared to any of the quarters last year. Was there anything particular, like any hedges or any items, which you benefited from?
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