Key questions from the fourth quarter earnings call conducted by Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. on January 29, 2008.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): The double-digit earnings outlook is on a base of what?
Thomas N. Hund: That is on a GAAP basis of 510.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): What are you basing the first quarter 2007 off of?
Thomas N. Hund: Adjusted, it is the same thing.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): What led to the big acceleration year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter in yields?
Matthew K. Rose: We do have contracts that come due every quarter and we have been on a long range trend of positive pricing performance. A combination of mix and yield improvement led to the performance. For example, in Consumer Products and International Intermodal, the mix and change in revenue empties is a positive from a standpoint of RPU.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): What do you think about pricing in 2008?
Matthew K. Rose: We are going to continue to have firm pricing going into 2008. We do not like to forecast pricing because we do have some moving parts, but we plan to continue our long standing improvement in yield.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): Can you talk about export coal and is there any ability for you to benefit from that trend right now?
John P. Lanigan, Jr.: We do have export coal that goes out through Roberts Bank, down to South America at this point, it is relatively small number compared to what goes on of the East Coast ports.
Matthew K. Rose: Our biggest opportunity will be as the Eastern people export more, that will force supplies up of Eastern coal as well as less supply in it, that should allow PRB to infiltrate further east.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): What the export grain tonnage was in 2007 and what the potential is in 2008?
Matthew K. Rose: We do not specifically talk about the tonnage but part of it, depends on the crop. We think that there has been a fundamental change in the world markets and the rest of the world being able to supply the growing demand in developing countries like China, in India, as they continue to change their diet. We do think long-term, we have got great prospects for export grain and lot of it is going to have to do with the quality of the crops this year, as to what those numbers look like.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): Do you have the ability if the demand is there to utilize that?
Matthew K. Rose: Yes we have the capacity to grow or export grain capabilities.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): The UTU just announced that they settled with the railroads tentatively and they have also talked about now instead of opposing tax credits supporting them. Have you heard anything about the potential to try to tuck something in for tax credits into Bush's stimulus plan?
Matthew K. Rose: We are participating in and working with people, but right now there is lot of moving parts to it, whether or not its how much business tax stimulus will be in there. What we have seen so far is that it is generally around more accelerated depreciation on a shorter term period. Right now we are not hopeful that the investment tax credit itself can get in, but they are trying about a second bill and your guess is good as mine, whether or not that will actually happen.
Edward Wolfe (Bear Stearns): Is it your sense with the UTU changing their position that there is a real chance over the next 12 months to get something in the form of infrastructure passed or does it still feel like an election year, a long shot?
Matthew K. Rose: It is a long process of what we are going to have to go through. |