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Earnings Calls: 
Nike Fourth Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Elena Todorova
123jump.com
Last Update: 5:56 AM EST November 13 2007


Sneaker giant Nike said fourth-quarter net income rose 32% as the athletic-wear company continued to post strong sales gains both domestically and abroad. Revenue in the quarter grew 9% to $4.38 billion from $4 billion a year earlier, slightly above analyst estimates of sales of $4.36 billion. Worldwide futures revenue, an indicator of deliveries over the next six months, climbed 12% to $7.7 billion.

 
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Key questions and answers from the fourth quarter earnings call conducted by Nike Inc. on June 26, 2007.

Robby Ohmes (Banc of America Securities): In the futures orders, can you give us the ASP break out for the US and for Europe?

Don Blair: We are seeing still some slightly lower ASP’s on the futures order book, and as we said earlier, most of that’s really a mix driven impact. We are seeing pretty much consistent performance out of the very top end of our price range. But we are seeing very strong growth at our products like kids and as I said our sandal business has been really strong. So, combination of those mix impacts, we are seeing a little bit of lower ASPs worldwide.

Robby Ohmes (Banc of America Securities): Can you give us any sense on the relative strength by channel for the US futures?

Charlie Denson: I would say that it's relatively strong across the board. In the US, we got strong performance in every channel. So, we've got people that are continuing to grow at a great cliff and then obviously there is a few within each of the channels that are, I wouldn't say they are down, but they are not growing as fast.

Robby Ohmes (Banc of America Securities): When should we be thinking about when the category alignment would start to benefit your numbers?

Charlie Denson: We think it's starting to benefit as we speak in the way we are approaching the business and some of the decisions that we are making. That the first full blown category led seasonal initiative will probably come to market somewhere around spring '09 or fall '08. But there, the alignment is starting to inform our decision makings literally right up the back.

Jeffrey Edelman (UBS): We think about the orders and about the channels and about what you are talking about the efforts to create excitement with some of the mall based retailers. Is that embedded in some of the futures growth?

Charlie Denson: Not really, not yet, because there is nothing out there yet with other than some announcements and some directional arrows. So, nothing is being reflected in the futures numbers. We are still working on plans on as to what it represents over the next 12 to 18 months.

Jeffrey Edelman (UBS): Could you give us a sense why there is such a spread in the currency differential between your fourth quarter sales and first half futures?

Don Blair: Which one are you talking about, because we have about ten?

Jeffrey Edelman (UBS): European fourth quarter sales reported constant dollars and then European futures reported constant dollars. Can you repeat the question for me?

Don Blair: Which two numbers are you trying to reconcile here? The European orders were up 12% at the end of the fourth quarter on a reported basis and on a constant dollar basis, 11% fourth quarter revenues in Europe were up 12 and constant dollars were up 3%. As I understand the question it is, there was about an 8 point spread between constant currency and real dollars in Europe for the fourth quarter revenue, but there is only one point spread, so the future is between constant dollars and real dollars. And the key issue is actually in the base years. So the fourth quarter of '06 our average euro-dollar conversion rate was about $1.20. So, when we were comparing the fourth quarter of '07 we were at about $1.33 against the $1.20. The first quarter of '07 rate is $1.27, so we are comparing against a stronger first quarter euro in the beginning of '07 versus the beginning of '08 than we were in the fourth quarter of '07 versus the fourth quarter of '06.

Mark Parker: I think I'm going to ask you to see if we can take this one to a different conversation, because I don’t think there is a fundamental principal involved here. I am not sure I can give you a good answer. I am not sure I entirely understand your question.

John Shanley (Susquehanna International Group): You gave us a good insight in terms of the China business, sales up in the quarter 29%. Could you give us the same level of detail from some of your other major international markets, specifically the UK, France, Germany and Japan?

Charlie Denson: I don't have the revenue numbers in front of me. We've consistently talked about those markets as being challenges. Let me take the UK and France, to start with. Futures for both countries are up, so that's a first force for a while and an encouraging sign. In France, we've got two successive quarters of revenue gains, year-on-year and so we are starting to see a little bit of movement there. Our inventory situations both at retail and obviously in Europe has improved over the last reporting period, and we feel very good about that. I feel like the French marketplace is probably in a little better shape with a little less volatility. But the UK market shape is obviously a bigger market and it has probably a little bit more volatility right now than France based on where we are at. But both markets are improving.

In Japan the marketplace again, inventory levels are in very good shape, our sell-throughs are starting to improve. So, things in Japan have never really been that bad. They just haven't been as good as we'd like them to be, and I think Japan now is starting to come back in to focus with respect to what the potential of that marketplace really is reflected.

Don Blair: Just to give you the clarification - the UK was down, France and Japan were both up slightly in the fourth quarter and futures for all three of those markets are up going forward.

John Shanley (Susquehanna International Group): Sometimes you do and sometimes you don't, but okay. Then can you clarify something for me? You mentioned the fourth quarter comps for the first quality retail stores were up 8%. Is that just Niketown or/and may be you can give us the comps for the outlet stores if it doesn't include those retail outlets?

Don Blair: Well, the first quality stores for Nike include certain other concepts. For example, we have got some women store concepts out there in the US. So that will be all of our first quality, but the overall majority of that is Niketown and the comp store results for the outlet stores were a little more challenging, consistent with many of the other outlet retailers I have seen. But overall, our retail business, particularly on the first quality side has been very strong, and we think that's reflective of the strength of the brand.

John Shanley (Susquehanna International Group): Well, the comps in the outlet store are negative?
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