Key questions and answers from the first quarter fiscal 2007 earnings call conducted by Allianz SE on May 8, 2007.
Spencer Horgan (Deutsche Bank): In the Life and Health business, can you comment on what new business volumes are doing across your major territories?
Helmut Perlet: We do intend to publish embedded value numbers for the first six months in 2007, and then going forward in 2008 to move onto a quarterly publication of embedded value numbers. We give only half-year numbers in 2007 for the simple reason we’ve changed to market consistent embedded values only last year, and we have not calculated on new assumptions quarter-by-quarter or recalculated on a quarterly basis the numbers for 2006. We have only done this on a solid basis for June 2006 and therefore we’re only going to publish about a half-year numbers in 2007 and just to make sure that comparable numbers are on a solid basis.
The numbers in this volume for 2007 first quarter is about 7.6 billion and that is supposed to be slightly below the 2006 numbers, which shouldn’t be a surprise because we have a shortfall of 3.9% in growth and there should also be some shortfall on the present value basis. The margin should be round about 3%, i.e. more or less stable with previous year’s numbers and the value of new business for the first quarter stays at 218 million.
Spencer Horgan: Can you provide an update about what you expect for acquisition costs on the Asset Management business over the next three years?
Helmut Perlet: I have to make one caveat here because the O part of our Asset Management business affects the ultimate expense for the calculation quid pro quo of these B-units. If it’s going up, then the expense will increase; if it’s going down, the expenses will decrease. The numbers I give you are based on the 2006 situation. Profitability of PIMCO and against this background, the firm is expecting 360 million for 2007, 280 million in 2008 and then close to 200 million in 2009.
Michael Huttner (JP Morgan): The new market growth in both life and non-life, and also both in terms of premiums and profit, how long can you sustain rates of growth like that which are above 20% in life and around 20% in non-life? As the premiums are falling in non-life, you have a net negative operating leverage. Does that mean you will accelerate the cost cutting or do more cost cutting than you originally planned and give some timing on that?
Helmut Perlet: We have these high gross numbers on the life business, in particular driven by Poland where we’ll be running at fairly successful corporation with UniCredital through Banco de Taro. That is subject to the same adjustments in the production going forward than it was the case in Italy. You should expect the production levels in Poland coming down. That is in itself, yes is probably not exactly good news. What that is a unit link business with very low new business margins as you normally know from this kind of joint venture. In terms of profitability, it will not have that much of an impact.
For the rest of the region, we can still achieve for the next 3 years and more but we are not planning for more than 3 years double digit growth rates clearly say anywhere between 10% and 15%. Now with this back to expenses; just a weak explanation in absolute terms the expenses in Q1 are up 11 million. Yes, now there is some negative impact because of higher retention. We have also higher net retention; we have also higher expenses. 30 million, we have high expenses from the first time consolidation of Roslow. That is another 17 million. On an apples-to-apples basis, you could argue expense ratio should have come slightly down.
James Quin (Citigroup): In Dresdner, there are a few moving paths between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. To what extent do you see the business is reflecting restructuring, which is underway now and, to what extent do you think that is something that will come through in later quarters?
Helmut Perlet: As far as our program Newdress McGuiss is concerned, we are very much on track. We had a layer of about 400 people already, which is slightly ahead of plan, and you will see that reflected also in a reduction of the expenses. But still, we were talking about 250 million in expense reduction on an apples-to-apples basis. Hence a good point of this program has still to come through.
Paul Gohinge (Bear Stearns): Could you give a bit of texture on claims trends around the business in non-life insurance and in particular claims frequency? It seems to have been favorable in most territories over recent years. Is that trend continuing? Or do you have an example that you could give us?
Helmut Perlet: Obviously it is a little bit difficult for Q1 with the impact of natural catastrophe because if you take all this into consideration, then frequency has gone up and severity has gone down because there is also a lot of smaller claims. But if we for example looked at the motor business only, frequency has improved by another percent and severity has improved something like 2%.
Brian Shea (Merrill Lynch): On the combined ratio, if you take out the cure-all costs and put in 2 points of net catastrophe losses, you get about a 95 combined ratio in the first quarter. You are saying that you’re confident that 94 for the full year. Is this all going to come in expenses? Or are we just trying to split Q1 numbers too hard?
Helmut Perlet: On a combined ratio, yes, adjusted for a normalized net cat, that would result in 295 combined. Now there is two things. Clearly the expense ratio will come down over the course of the year. Point number two is Q1 traditionally is always in terms of loss ratios is the worst quarter and the worst quarter in the year and normally what you do if you don’t have very insignificant indication that it is going to changing, you book the first quarter to plan. Then you have an approach where you have a higher Q1 and then subsequent improvements in the quarters 2 to 4 and this is what I expect to see for the rest of this year as well. I’m still very confident we are making the 94% with the caveat that we apply the normalized flat tax rate and that of course remains to be seen.
Brian Shea: In the corporate segment, you had an operating loss of 101 million, which is a very low loss. That number has been so volatile since you came out with quarterly reporting on that a year ago. Is that a decent run rate to use or is there anything funny in that number?
Helmut Perlet: On the Corporate segment, improvement came from 2 sides. First, there was a higher operating profit from our Private Equity business, which was an improvement of roughly 30 million. In the Corporate segment, we had higher net interest income as we are increasing the amount of 3 assets at the holding company level based on the results from previous year, and that added to this net/net and it was roughly 60 million improvement. There is only little cost for the acquisition of AGF minority buy-out in that number included because most of that has to be allocated as part of the acquisition expenses and, therefore it is ultimately ending up in goodwill.
Frank Stoffer (Pioneer Investment): The banking results benefited from the impact of utilization of tax losses in first quarter. Could you elaborate to what extent this impact had and also could you please elaborate on what the range of tax rate we can expect going forward?
Helmut Perlet: Based on our aspiration level 2007, which calls for like 10% gross in operating profit and a normalized level of debt to gains, the expected tax rate should be in the order of magnitude of 28% to 28.5%. What you should expect probably going forward for the next three quarters is a tax rate, which is in 28% to 29% range.
Frank Stoffer: Relating to the German Life and Health operations, there were changes with regard to the tax and to the DEK treatment. Could you please elaborate to what extent the Q1 amount is representative and what DEK amortization is sustainable going forward? |