10-K 1 d10k.htm FORM 10-K FOR THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2006 Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006
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UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, DC 20549


FORM 10-K

x   ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2006

OR

¨   TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the transition period from              to             

Commission file number 1-13664


THE PMI GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware  

3003 Oak Road

Walnut Creek, California 94597

  94-3199675
(State of Incorporation)   (Address of principal executive offices)   (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

(925) 658-7878

(Registrant's telephone number, including area code)


Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

 

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.01 par value   New York Stock Exchange
Preferred Stock Purchase Rights   New York Stock Exchange

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act:

None


Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act.  Yes  x  No  ¨

 

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Act.  Yes  ¨  No  x

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant: (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.  Yes  x  No  ¨

 

Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and will not be contained, to the best of registrant’s knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K.  x

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, or a non-accelerated filer. See definition of “accelerated filer and larger accelerated filer” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. (Check one):

 

Large accelerated filer  x

 

Accelerated filer  ¨

 

Non-acceleratedfiler  ¨

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).  Yes  ¨  No  x

 

The aggregate market value of the voting stock (common stock) held by non-affiliates of the registrant as of the close of business on June 30, 2006 was approximately $2.8 billion based on the closing sale price of the common stock on the New York Stock Exchange consolidated tape on that date. All executive officers and directors, and beneficial owners of 10% or more of the outstanding shares, of the registrant have been deemed, solely for the purpose of the foregoing calculation, to be “affiliates” of the registrant.

 

Number of shares outstanding of registrant’s common stock, as of close of business on January 31, 2007: 86,873,215

 

DOCUMENTS INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE

 

Portions of the Proxy Statement for registrant’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on May 17, 2007 are incorporated by reference into Items 10 through 14 of Part III.



Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

PART I
Item 1.    Business    2
   A.    Overview of Operations .    2
   B.    U.S. Mortgage Insurance Operations    3
  

1.      Products

   4
  

2.      Competition

   8
  

3.      Customers

   10
  

4.      Business Composition

   10
  

5.      Sales and Product Development

   13
  

6.      Risk Management

   13
  

7.      Expanding Markets

   14
  

8.      Defaults and Claims

   15
  

9.      Reinsurance

   20
  

10.    Regulation

   21
   C.    International Operations    26
   D.    Financial Guaranty    34
   E.    Investment Portfolio    40
   F.    Employees    41
Item 1A.    Risk Factors    41
Item 2.    Properties    55
Item 3.    Legal Proceedings    55
Executive Officers of Registrant    56
PART II
Item 5.    Market for the Registrant’s Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities   

58

Item 6.    Selected Financial Data    61
Item 7.    Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations    63
Item 7A.    Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk    107
Item 8.    Financial Statements and Supplementary Data    108
Item 9A.    Controls and Procedures    155
PART III
Item 10.    Directors, Executive Officers and Corporate Governance    156
Item 11.    Executive Compensation    156
Item 12.    Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters   

156

Item 13.    Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence    156
Item 14.    Principal Accountant Fees and Services    156
PART IV
Item 15.    Exhibits and Financial Statement Schedules    157

 

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Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

 

Statements we make or incorporate by reference in this and other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that are not historical facts, that are preceded by, followed by or include the words “believes,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “estimates” or similar expressions, or that relate to future plans, events or performance are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. When a forward-looking statement includes an underlying assumption, we caution that, while we believe the assumption to be reasonable and make it in good faith, assumed facts almost always vary from actual results, and the difference between assumed facts and actual results can be material. Where, in any forward-looking statement, we express an expectation or belief as to future results, there can be no assurance that the expectation or belief will result. Our actual results may differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks or uncertainties including, but not limited to, the Risk Factors addressed in Item 1A below. Other risks are referred to from time to time in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All of our forward-looking statements are qualified by and should be read in conjunction with our risk disclosures. Except as may be required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

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PART I

 

ITEM 1. BUSINESS

 

A.   Overview of Operations

 

We provide financial products designed to reduce risk, lower costs and expand market access for residential mortgages, public finance obligations and asset-backed securities. Our products include:

 

   

Mortgage insurance and reinsurance

 

   

Structured finance solutions, which may take the form of mortgage insurance

 

   

Financial guaranty

 

Through our U.S., International and Financial Guaranty segments, we offer these products across the credit spectrum and around the world.

 

Our mortgage insurance and structured finance products support the mortgage finance system by providing protection to mortgage lenders and investors in the event of borrower default. By protecting lenders and investors from credit losses, we help to ensure that mortgages are available to prospective homebuyers. Our financial guaranty products also support the infrastructure on which homeownership depends, including transportation, schools, hospitals, and utilities.

 

U.S. Mortgage Insurance Operations.    Our U.S. subsidiary, PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., including its affiliated U.S. companies, collectively referred to as PMI, is a leading U.S. residential mortgage insurer. PMI offers a variety of mortgage insurance and structured finance products, each tailored to the needs of the U.S. market. By mitigating borrower default risk, PMI helps financial institutions reduce the capital needed to meet regulatory and rating agency capital requirements. By providing first and mezzanine loss credit enhancement for the mortgage-backed security markets, PMI allows investors to manage and diversify credit risk and achieve greater confidence in their portfolios’ performance.

 

We own 50% of CMG Mortgage Insurance Company, or CMG MI, a joint venture that provides mortgage insurance exclusively to credit unions. Our U.S. Mortgage Insurance Operations segment generated 67.8% of our consolidated revenues in 2006.

 

International Operations.    Through our Australian subsidiaries (collectively, “PMI Australia”), we are one of the leading providers of mortgage insurance in Australia and New Zealand. PMI Australia provides credit enhancement products to lending institutions as well as credit enhancement for residential mortgage-backed securitizations. Our European subsidiaries (collectively, “PMI Europe”) offer mortgage insurance and mortgage credit enhancement products, including primary mortgage insurance, structured portfolio products and reinsurance products, primarily tailored to the European mortgage markets. Our Hong Kong subsidiary, PMI Asia, offers mortgage insurance and reinsurance to residential mortgage lenders and investors in Asian markets. We expect to begin offering mortgage insurance in Canada in the first half of 2007.

 

Financial Guaranty.    We are the lead investor in FGIC Corporation, whose triple-A rated wholly-owned subsidiary, Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (“FGIC”), provides financial guaranty insurance for public finance and structured finance obligations. FGIC provides credit enhancement solutions that enable municipal and asset-backed issuers to reduce their borrowing costs and facilitate access to capital markets. In 2006, we established a surety company, PMI Guaranty Co., to provide credit enhancement at the mezzanine and remote loss levels for mortgage- and asset-backed securities, and reinsurance on public finance obligations. PMI Guaranty offers direct insurance to issuers and lenders and reinsurance to financial guarantors. We also have a substantial ownership stake in RAM Holdings Ltd., the parent company of RAM Reinsurance Company Ltd. (“RAM Re”), a Bermuda-based financial guaranty reinsurance company.

 

Financial Strength Ratings.    Insurer financial strength ratings are provided by independent rating agencies and are based on their assessment of the financial risks associated with historical business activities and new

 

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business initiatives. In their assessments, the rating agencies model the adequacy of capital to withstand severe loss scenarios and review, among other things, corporate strategy, operational performance, available liquidity, the outlook for the relevant industry, and competitive position. Maintenance of financial strength ratings is crucial to our ability to issue our products in the future. The rating agencies can change or withdraw their ratings at any time.

 

    

Standard & Poor’s

  

Fitch

  

Moody’s

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.

   AA    AA+    Aa2

PMI Australia*

  

AA

  

AA

  

Aa2

PMI Europe*

   AA    AA    Aa3

PMI Guaranty

   AA    AA+    Aa3

CMG MI

   AA-    AA    Not Rated

FGIC

   AAA    AAA    Aaa

RAM Re

   AAA    Not Rated    Aa3

*   Refers to licensed insurance subsidiaries.

 

S&P and Fitch have assigned our holding company, The PMI Group, Inc., an “A” and “A+” counterparty credit rating and senior unsecured debt rating, respectively, and Moody’s has assigned an “A1” senior unsecured debt rating.

 

Our consolidated net income was $419.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2006. As of December 31, 2006, our consolidated total assets were $5.3 billion, including our investment portfolio of $3.3 billion. Our consolidated shareholders’ equity was $3.6 billion as of December 31, 2006. See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Note 17. Business Segments, for financial information regarding our business segments.

 

Our website address is http://www.pmigroup.com. Information on our website does not constitute part of this report. Our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, and any amendments to those reports are available free of charge on our website via a hyperlink as soon as reasonably practicable after such material is electronically filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

The PMI Group, Inc. is a Delaware corporation. Our principal executive offices are located at 3003 Oak Road, Walnut Creek, California 94597-2098, and our telephone number is (925) 658-7878.

 

B.   U.S. Mortgage Insurance Operations

 

Through PMI, we provide residential mortgage insurance and structured finance products to mortgage lenders, capital market participants and investors throughout the United States. PMI is incorporated in Arizona, headquartered in Walnut Creek, California, and licensed in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Virgin Islands. Under its monoline insurance licenses, PMI may only offer mortgage insurance covering first lien, one to four family residential mortgages.

 

Residential mortgage insurance protects mortgage lenders, and subsequent holders of insured mortgage loans, in the event of borrower default, by reducing and, in some instances, eliminating the resulting loss to the insured institution. By mitigating default risk, residential mortgage insurance facilitates the origination of “low down payment mortgages,” generally mortgages with down payments of less than 20% of the homes’ values. Mortgage insurance also reduces the capital that financial institutions are required to hold against low down payment mortgages and facilitates the sale of low down payment mortgage loans in the secondary mortgage market.

 

Traditionally, residential mortgage insurance has provided first loss protection on loans held by portfolio lenders and insured loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the “GSEs” or the “agency market”). Structured

 

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finance products, in the form of mortgage insurance, have become increasingly important as first loss and mezzanine loss forms of credit enhancement of mortgage-backed securities issued by capital market participants other than the GSEs (the “non-agency market”). As described below, PMI offers a variety of mortgage insurance and structured finance products to meet the demands of the mortgage origination, agency and non-agency markets.

 

1.   Products

 

(a) Primary Mortgage Insurance

 

Primary insurance provides the insured with first loss mortgage default protection on individual loans at specified coverage percentages. Our maximum obligation to an insured with respect to a claim is generally determined by multiplying the coverage percentage selected by the insured by the loss amount on the defaulted loan. The loss amount includes any unpaid loan balance, delinquent interest and certain expenses associated with the loan’s default and property foreclosure. In lieu of paying the coverage percentage of the loss amount on a defaulted loan, we generally may: (i) pay the full loss amount and take title to the mortgaged property, or (ii) in the event that the property is sold prior to settlement of the claim, pay the insured’s actual loss.

 

We offer primary mortgage insurance on a loan-by-loan basis to lenders through our “flow” channel. We also offer issuers of mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) and portfolio investors primary mortgage insurance that covers large portfolios of mortgage loans. These structured finance products may provide regulatory capital relief and default protection to portfolio investors, including the GSEs, or may serve as credit enhancement for agency and non-agency MBS transactions.

 

PMI’s primary insurance in force and primary risk in force at December 31, 2006 were $102.6 billion and $25.7 billion, respectively. Primary insurance in force refers to the current principal balance of all outstanding mortgage loans with primary insurance coverage as of a given date. Primary risk in force is the aggregate dollar amount of each primary insured mortgage loan’s current principal balance multiplied by the insurance coverage percentage specified in the policy. The chart below shows our U.S. primary new insurance written, or NIW, for the years ended December 31, 2006, 2005 and 2004. NIW refers to the original principal balance of all loans that receive new primary mortgage insurance coverage during a given period.

 

     2006     2005     2004  
     (in millions)  

Primary Flow

   $ 23,270    72 %   $ 28,194    78 %   $ 36,257    88 %

Structured Finance

   $ 8,964    28 %   $ 7,740    22 %   $ 4,956    12 %
                                       

Total NIW

   $ 32,234    100 %   $ 35,934    100 %   $ 41,213    100 %
                                       

 

Primary Flow Channel.    Lenders purchase primary mortgage insurance through our flow channel to reduce default risk, to obtain capital relief and, most often, to facilitate the sale of their low down payment loans to the GSEs and other investors. The GSEs purchase residential mortgages from lenders and investors as part of their governmental mandate to provide liquidity in the secondary mortgage market. As the GSEs have traditionally been the principal purchasers of conventional mortgage loans, mortgage lenders have typically originated such loans in conformance with GSE guidelines for sellers and servicers. These guidelines reflect the GSEs’ own charter requirements which, among other things, allow the GSEs to purchase low down payment mortgage loans only if the lender: (i) secures mortgage insurance on those loans from an eligible insurer, such as PMI; (ii) retains a participation of not less than 10% in the mortgage; or (iii) agrees to repurchase or replace the mortgage in the event of a default under specified conditions. If the lender retains a participation in the mortgage or agrees to repurchase or replace the mortgage, banking regulations may increase the level of capital required to be held by the lender to reflect the lender’s increased obligations, which could in turn increase the lender’s cost of doing business.

 

The GSEs also have established approval requirements for eligible mortgage insurers. The approval requirements cover substantially all areas of PMI’s mortgage insurance operations and require disclosure of

 

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certain activities and new products to the GSEs. In addition, the requirements mandate that eligible mortgage insurers must maintain at least two of the following three ratings: “AA-” by S&P or Fitch, or “Aa3” by Moody’s.

 

Lenders that purchase mortgage insurance select specific coverage levels for insured loans. As a result of the GSEs’ coverage requirements, lenders generally select a coverage percentage that effectively reduces the ratio of the original loan amount to the value of the property, or LTV, to not more than 80%. We charge higher premium rates for higher coverage, as higher coverage percentages generally result in higher amounts paid per claim. Higher LTV loans generally have higher coverage percentages and higher average premiums. Refinanced mortgage loans we insure typically have lower LTVs, and therefore lower coverage percentages and premium rates, than purchase money mortgages due to the home price appreciation often associated with refinanced loans. Purchase money mortgages, which generally have higher LTVs, tend to have higher coverage percentages, or “deeper” coverage. Accordingly, the relative sizes of the purchase money and refinance mortgage origination markets influence the average LTV, coverage rate and premium of our NIW and insurance in force.

 

Premium payments may be paid to us on a monthly, annual or single premium basis. Monthly payment plans represented 96.4% of NIW in 2006 and 94.1% of NIW in 2005. As of December 31, 2006, monthly plans represented 93.5% of our U.S. primary risk in force compared to 93.1% at December 31, 2005. Single premium plans represented substantially all of the remaining NIW and primary risk in force. Single premium plan payments may be refundable if coverage is canceled by the insured, which generally occurs when the loan is repaid, the loan amortizes to a sufficiently low amount or the value of the property has increased sufficiently.

 

Depending upon the loan, the premium payments for flow primary mortgage insurance coverage may ultimately be borne by the insured (“Lender Paid MI”) or by the insured’s customer, the mortgage borrower (“Borrower Paid MI”). In either case, the payment of premiums to us is the responsibility of the insured. PMI’s primary insurance rates for Borrower Paid MI are based on rates that we have filed with the various state insurance departments. To establish these rates, we utilize pricing models that consider a number of variables, including coverage percentages, loan and property attributes, and borrower risk characteristics. Because Lender Paid MI products are frequently designed to meet the needs of a lender’s particular loan program, we attempt to calibrate our Lender Paid MI pricing to a loan program’s specific borrower and loan-type risk characteristics. In addition, as a significant percentage of Lender Paid MI is processed through our electronic delivery channels, lenders’ use of Lender Paid MI serves to increase our efficiency and reduce our policy acquisition costs.

 

The majority of NIW is comprised of Borrower Paid MI. Lender Paid MI represented 17.5% of flow NIW in 2006, 16.7% in 2005 and 10.3% in 2004. In 2005 and 2006, lenders’ use of Lender Paid MI was driven by, among other things, higher levels of originations of non-traditional loans, particularly Alt-A loans, and our ability to offer Lender Paid MI products and pricing tailored to these loans. We define Alt-A loans as loans where the borrower’s FICO score is 620 or higher and the loan includes certain characteristics such as reduced documentation verifying the borrower’s income, assets, deposit information, and/or employment. Although Alt-A and prime borrowers generally have similar credit profiles, we consider Alt-A loans to be riskier than prime loans because of the reduced documentation requirements. Accordingly, we expect higher rates of default for Alt-A loans than the traditional loan portfolio.

 

Primary mortgage insurance is renewable at the option of the insured at the premium rate fixed when the insurance on the loan was initially issued. As a result, increased claims from policies originated in a particular year cannot be offset by renewal premium increases on policies in force. We may not cancel mortgage insurance coverage except in the event of nonpayment of premiums or certain material violations of PMI’s master policies. With respect to our flow channel, the insured or the loan’s mortgage servicer generally may cancel mortgage insurance coverage at any time. In addition, the GSEs’ guidelines generally provide that a borrower’s written request to cancel Borrower Paid MI should be honored if the borrower has a satisfactory payment record and the principal balance is not greater than 80% of the original value of the property or, in some instances, the current value of the property. The Homeowners Protection Act of 1998 also provides for the automatic termination of Borrower Paid MI when the LTV ratio (based upon the loan’s amortization schedule) reaches 78%, and provides

 

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for cancellation of Borrower Paid MI upon a borrower’s request when the LTV ratio reaches 80%, upon satisfaction of conditions set forth in the statute.

 

Structured Finance.    We provide credit enhancement solutions across the credit spectrum to agency and non-agency MBS issuers as well as portfolio investors. While the terms vary, our structured finance products generally insure a large group of pre-existing loans or loans to be originated in the future whose attributes will conform to the terms of the negotiated agreement. A structured finance product can include primary insurance (first loss), modified pool insurance which may be subject to deductibles and which is discussed below, or both. Premiums for structured finance coverage are paid and borne by the issuers or investors.

 

While demand for mortgage insurance as a form of credit enhancement of MBS has increased, most non-agency MBS transactions do not utilize mortgage insurance. Instead, non-agency MBS issuers often use other third party credit enhancement products, such as financial guaranty insurance, or, most often, forego all third party credit enhancement products by using over-collateralized structures. As a result, we must compete against both MBS transactions that forego third party credit enhancement and third party credit enhancers, such as other mortgage insurers and financial guarantors. The extent to which we may bid upon, and if successful participate in, non-agency MBS transactions is subject to a number of factors, including:

 

   

The size of the non-agency MBS market.

 

   

The attractiveness of mortgage insurance relative to other forms of third party credit enhancement.

 

   

The attractiveness of mortgage insurance relative to the use of internal credit enhancement structures. Our ability to compete successfully with internal structures depends in large part on the interest rates offered to investors purchasing the various tranches of an MBS. The smaller the differential in the interest rates being offered between the less risky and the more risky components, the less likely it is that mortgage insurance will be required by investors.

 

   

The amount of credit for losses that rating agencies give to mortgage insurance.

 

   

Continued MBS product innovation, which may involve credit or interest rate swap instruments, over-collateralized executions and other forms of credit enhancement that do not require mortgage insurance. PMI’s monoline insurance licenses prohibit it from offering credit enhancement products other than residential mortgage insurance.

 

All of the above factors are affected by domestic and international economic conditions including, but not limited to, levels of liquidity in the U.S. and international capital markets, interest rates, home price appreciation, employment levels, and the relative attractiveness of MBS compared to other debt securities. Because economic factors and the diverse array of competitors in the capital markets affect our opportunities to write mortgage insurance for structured transactions, PMI’s NIW from structured finance can vary significantly from year to year.

 

PMI’s opportunities to participate in structured finance transactions may be significantly impacted by the implementation in the United States of Basel II, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s proposal to implement a new international capital accord. Basel II will affect the capital treatment provided to mortgage insurance by domestic and international banks in both their origination and securitization activities. The Basel II provisions related to residential mortgages and mortgage insurance could alter the competitive positions of mortgage insurers. U.S. federal banking agencies have announced that the U.S. implementation of Basel II will be delayed until at least 2008 and have proposed an additional capital accord (known as Basel IA) that has not been finalized.

 

PMI, our European insurance subsidiary, and FGIC, a financial guaranty insurance company in which we hold a 42.0% interest, have jointly provided combinations of first loss, mezzanine and risk remote credit enhancement in MBS transactions. In 2007, we expect to continue to partner with FGIC on MBS transactions. In 2007, we also expect PMI to partner with our recently established surety company, PMI Guaranty, on structured finance transactions.

 

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In addition to MBS issuances, we offer primary mortgage insurance on large groups of loans that lenders and investors intend to hold in their portfolios. In these instances, the lender or investor purchases mortgage insurance to achieve capital relief, liquidity or to receive protection against default risk.

 

We utilize risk-based pricing models to establish premium rates for our structured transactions business. These models consider variables relating to the structure of the transaction, real estate loss scenarios, and the loans within the insured portfolio, including coverage levels selected by the insured, loan and property attributes, and borrower risk characteristics.

 

(b) Pool Insurance

 

Modified Pool Insurance.    We currently offer modified pool insurance products that may be attractive to agency and non-agency MBS issuers, investors and lenders seeking credit enhancement for MBS transactions, regulatory capital relief or the reduction of mortgage default risk. Modified pool insurance may be used in tandem with primary mortgage insurance or may be placed on loans that do not require primary insurance. The extent of coverage of modified pool products varies. Some products provide first loss protection by covering a percentage of the losses on individual loans held within the pool of insured loans up to a stated aggregate loss limit (“stop loss limit”) for the entire pool. Some modified pool products offer mezzanine-level coverage by providing for claims payments only after a predetermined cumulative claims level, or deductible, is reached.

 

To date, PMI has issued modified pool insurance principally to the GSEs as supplemental coverage and to other mortgage capital markets participants. Like primary structured transactions, PMI’s modified pool products insure significant percentages of Alt-A loans and adjustable rate mortgages (see 4. Business Composition, below). As of December 31, 2006, PMI had $2.5 billion of modified pool risk in force compared to $1.8 billion as of December 31, 2005. As of December 31, 2006, PMI’s modified pool risk in force represented 9.8% of PMI’s total risk in force. Unless otherwise noted, primary insurance statistics in this report do not include pool insurance.

 

Other Pool Insurance.    Prior to 2002, PMI offered certain pool insurance products, referred to principally as GSE or Old Pool, to lenders, the GSEs and the non-agency market.

 

(c) Captive Reinsurance

 

Mortgage insurers including PMI offer products to lenders that are designed to allow them to participate in the risks and rewards of the mortgage insurance business. Many of the major mortgage lenders have established affiliated captive reinsurance companies. Under a captive reinsurance agreement, PMI reinsures a portion of its risk written on loans originated by a certain lender with the captive reinsurance company affiliated with such lender. In return, a proportionate amount of PMI’s gross premiums received is ceded to the captive reinsurance company less, in some instances, a ceding commission paid to us for underwriting and administering the business. Ceded premiums, as well as capital deposits required of the captive reinsurer, are held in trust for our benefit to secure the payment of potential future claims. Captive reinsurers must comply with applicable insurance regulations and must adhere to minimum risk-to-capital ratios, which consider only eligible assets held in trust specifically for our benefit. If during predetermined reporting periods, the value of assets in the trust is less than required under the minimum capital requirement, the captive reinsurer must deposit additional amounts into the trust account. Additionally, dividends from the trust accounts are only permissible once specified capital ratios are exceeded. In addition to adherence to minimum capital ratios, some captive reinsurance agreements disallow any dividends until book years have been reinsured for a minimum time period, typically three years.

 

PMI’s captive reinsurance agreements primarily provide for excess-of-loss reinsurance, in which PMI retains a first loss position on a defined set of mortgage insurance risk, reinsures a second loss layer of this risk with the captive reinsurance company and retains the remaining risk above the second loss layer up to the maximum coverage level. PMI also offers quota share captive reinsurance agreements under which the captive

 

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reinsurance company assumes a pro rata share of all losses in return for a pro rata share of the premiums collected. We believe that captive reinsurance agreements serve to better align credit decisions with respect to loans which require mortgage insurance and provide lenders with an ongoing stake in the outcome of the lending decision. This risk transfer approach also decreases the possibility of PMI incurring unacceptably high levels of losses in times of economic stress. Finally, certain rating agency capital models recognize the trust balances of the captive reinsurers and, thus, also recognize the reinsurance value and transfer of risk criteria of captive reinsurance. Typically only flow Borrower Paid MI is subject to captive reinsurance agreements. The captive reinsurance agreements must comply with both federal and state statutes and regulations, including the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974, as well as criteria established by the GSEs. (See Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations, U.S. Mortgage Insurance Operations, Premiums written and earned, and Item 1A. Risk Factors—The U.S. mortgage insurance industry and PMI are subject to regulatory risk.)

 

(d) Other Risk-Sharing Products

 

In addition to captive reinsurance, we offer other risk-sharing products, including layered co-insurance, a primary insurance program under which the insured retains liability for losses between certain levels of aggregate losses. Layered co-insurance is primarily targeted to affordable housing programs. We also offer various products designed for, and in cooperation with, the GSEs and lenders that involve some aspect of risk-sharing.

 

(e) Joint Venture—CMG Mortgage Insurance Company

 

CMG Mortgage Insurance Company and its affiliates (collectively “CMG MI”) offer mortgage insurance for loans originated by credit unions. CMG MI is a joint venture, equally owned by PMI and CUNA Mutual Investment Corporation (“CMIC”). CMIC is part of the CUNA Mutual Group, which provides insurance and financial services to credit unions and their members. Both PMI and CMIC provide services to CMG MI. At December 31, 2006, CMG MI had $16.3 billion of primary insurance in force and $4.0 billion of primary risk in force compared to $15.5 billion of primary insurance in force and $3.7 billion of primary risk in force at December 31, 2005. CMG MI’s financial results are reported in our consolidated financial statements under the equity method of accounting in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. CMG MI’s operating results are not included in our results shown in Part II of this Report on Form 10-K, unless otherwise noted.

 

Under the terms of the restated joint venture agreement effective as of June 1, 2003, CMIC has the right on September 8, 2015, or earlier under certain limited conditions, to require PMI to sell, and PMI has the right to require CMIC to purchase, PMI’s interest in CMG MI for an amount equal to the then current fair market value of PMI’s interest. PMI and CMIC have also entered into a capital support agreement, which is subject to certain limitations, for the benefit of CMG MI in order to maintain CMG MI’s claims-paying ability rating at “AA-” by S&P and “AA” by Fitch. CMG MI is a GSE-authorized mortgage insurer.

 

2.   Competition

 

U.S. Private Mortgage Insurance Industry

 

The U.S. private mortgage insurance industry presently consists of eight active mortgage insurers: PMI; CMG MI; Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, or MGIC; Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation, an affiliate of Genworth Financial, Inc.; United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company, an affiliate of American International Group, Inc.; Radian Guaranty Inc., or Radian; Republic Mortgage Insurance Co., an affiliate of Old Republic International; and Triad Guaranty Insurance Corp. In February 2007, the parents of MGIC and Radian announced that they had entered into an agreement and plan of merger. Assured Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Company, a subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd., is also licensed to offer mortgage insurance in the U.S. Other companies may also be considering offering mortgage insurance.

 

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U.S. and State Government Agencies

 

PMI and other private mortgage insurers compete with federal and state government agencies that sponsor their own mortgage insurance programs. The private mortgage insurers’ principal government competitor is the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, and to a lesser degree, the Veterans Administration, or VA. The following table shows the relative mortgage insurance market share of FHA/VA and private mortgage insurers over the past five years.

 

    

Federal Government and

Private Mortgage Insurance

Market Share (Based on NIW)

 
     Year Ended December 31,  
       2006         2005         2004         2003         2002    

FHA/VA

   18.3 %   23.5 %   32.8 %   36.4 %   35.6 %

Private Mortgage Insurance

   81.7 %   76.5 %   67.2 %   63.6 %   64.4 %
                              

Total

   100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %
                              

Source:   Inside Mortgage Finance; based upon primary NIW but includes certain insurance written that we classify as pool insurance.

 

Effective January 1, 2006, the U.S. Housing and Urban Development Department, or HUD, in accordance with its indices, set the maximum single-family loan amount that the FHA can insure at $362,790 in “high-cost” areas. Excluding “high-cost” areas, the maximum mortgage loan amount that the FHA can insure is 95% of the median area home price as determined by HUD. Private mortgage insurers have no limit as to maximum individual loan amounts that they can insure. Increases in the amount that these agencies can insure could cause future demand for private mortgage insurance to decrease. We and other private mortgage insurers also face competition in several states from state-supported mortgage insurance funds.

 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—The GSEs

 

Mortgage insurers, including PMI, compete with the GSEs when the GSEs seek to assume mortgage default risk that could be covered by mortgage insurance. The GSEs have introduced programs that allow lenders to purchase reduced mortgage insurance coverage, as well as programs that provide for the restructuring of existing mortgage insurance with reduced amounts of primary insurance coverage and the addition of pool insurance coverage. One of the GSEs has expressed its intention to increase its use of alternative structures, including credit default swaps, to manage its credit risk.

 

Federal Home Loan Banks

 

The Federal Home Loan Banks, or FHLBs, purchase single-family conforming mortgage loans originated by participating financial institutions. Typically, mortgage insurance coverage is placed on these loans when the LTV exceeds 80%.

 

Financial Institutions and Mortgage Lenders

 

The private mortgage insurance industry faces competition from the home equity lending operations of financial institutions and other mortgage lenders who structure their high LTV residential loans in such a way that mortgage insurance is not required. Certain lenders originate mortgages that have a first mortgage lien with an LTV of 80%, and a second mortgage lien ranging from 5% to 20% LTV. These loans are commonly referred to as simultaneous seconds, “piggybacks,” 80/10/10, 80/20 or 80/15/5 loans. Since the first mortgage is only an 80% LTV, the GSEs do not require mortgage insurance with respect to either mortgage, even though the combined LTV exceeds 80%. These products have grown in popularity since 2003 due to a number of factors, including low interest rates, high home appreciation rates and an increased focus by lenders on home equity lending. The increased popularity and use of these and other similar products have reduced the available market for primary mortgage insurance.

 

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In addition, we and other private mortgage insurers compete with financial institutions, primarily commercial banks and thrifts, which retain risk on all or a portion of their high LTV mortgage portfolios rather than obtain insurance for this risk. Our use of captive reinsurance with certain lenders with whom we do business (see Captive Reinsurance, above) also negatively impacts our risk in force and premiums earned.

 

Structured Finance—Competitors

 

In order to participate in structured finance transactions, we must compete against other mortgage insurers as well as other well-capitalized credit enhancement providers, including financial guarantors. In addition, the frequent design and use of MBS structures that do not include third party credit enhancement negatively affects the private mortgage insurance market and our insurance in force and NIW.

 

3.   Customers

 

Our U.S. customers are primarily mortgage lenders, savings institutions, commercial banks, investors (including the GSEs), the FHLBs, and other capital market participants. In 2006, PMI’s top ten customers generated 43.9% of PMI’s premiums earned compared to 42.8% in 2005. The beneficiary under PMI’s master policies is the owner of the insured loan. The GSEs, as major purchasers of conventional mortgage loans in the U.S., are the beneficiaries of a substantial portion of PMI’s mortgage insurance coverage.

 

4.   Business Composition

 

Persistency; Policy Cancellations.    A significant percentage of PMI’s premiums earned is generated by insurance policies written in previous years. Consequently, the level of policy cancellations and resulting length of time that insurance remains in force are key determinants of PMI’s revenues and net income. One measure of the impact of policy cancellations on insurance in force is our persistency rate, which is based upon the percentage of primary insurance in force at the beginning of a 12-month period that remains in force at the end of that period. The following table shows average annual mortgage interest rates and PMI’s primary portfolio persistency rates from 1997 to 2006.

 

       1997         1998         1999         2000         2001         2002         2003         2004         2005         2006    

Interest Rate*

   7.6 %   6.9 %   7.4 %   8.1 %   7.0 %   6.5 %   5.8 %   5.8 %   5.9 %   6.4 %

Persistency Rate

   80.8 %   68.0 %   71.9 %   80.3 %   62.0 %   56.2 %   44.6 %   60.9 %   61.9 %   69.6 %

*   Average annual thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rate derived from Freddie Mac data.

 

As shown by the above table, low or declining interest rate environments are major factors in shortening the length of time our primary insurance in force has remained in effect. Between 2001 and 2003, declining interest rates resulted in heavy mortgage refinance activity, causing PMI’s policy cancellations to increase, thereby negatively impacting earned premiums. In 2004, 2005 and 2006, the persistency rate improved as a result of stabilizing or increasing interest rates and declining levels of mortgage refinance activity.

 

In addition to interest rates, we believe that refinance activity is influenced by levels of home price appreciation, consumer behavior and the availability of certain alternative loan products. We believe that higher levels of home price appreciation and increasing consumer acceptance of refinance transactions have contributed to the high levels of refinance activity since 2001. We also believe that alternative loan products, such as interest only loans and payment option adjustable rate mortgages (see below), which provide borrowers with the opportunity to at least temporarily decrease their monthly loan payments, have encouraged refinancing during the period of relatively stable interest rates.

 

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Risk in Force.    PMI’s primary risk in force was $25.7 billion as of December 31, 2006 and $25.0 billion as of December 31, 2005. The composition of primary and pool risk in force is summarized in the table below. The table is based upon information available on the date of mortgage origination.

 

     As of December 31,  
     2006     2005     2004     2003     2002  

Primary Risk in Force (in percentages)*

          

LTV:

          

Above 97s

     17.6 %     14.3 %     11.9 %     8.6 %     2.8 %

97s

     4.6 %     5.3 %     6.6 %     7.4 %     6.9 %

95s

     31.0 %     33.7 %     36.4 %     37.6 %     41.3 %

90s

     37.9 %     37.4 %     35.9 %     37.0 %     39.0 %

85s and below

     8.9 %     9.3 %     9.2 %     9.4 %     10.0 %

Loan Type:

          

Fixed

     81.3 %     80.4 %     85.5 %     90.4 %     90.9 %

ARMs

     18.7 %     19.6 %     14.5 %     9.6 %     9.2 %

Interest Only

     9.9 %     6.2 %     n.m.       n.m.       n.m.  

Payment Option ARMs

     4.5 %     3.5 %     n.m.       n.m.       n.m.  

Property Type:

          

Single-family detached

     82.7 %     83.8 %     84.7 %     85.8 %     87.6 %

Condominium, townhouse, cooperative

     11.9 %     11.5 %     10.7 %     10.0 %     8.5 %

Multi-family dwelling and other

     5.4 %     4.7 %     4.6 %     4.2 %     3.9 %

Occupancy Status:

          

Primary residence

     88.8 %     91.0 %     93.2 %     94.8 %     95.6 %

Second home

     3.9 %     3.4 %     2.7 %     2.2 %     1.8 %

Non-owner occupied

     7.3 %     5.6 %     4.1 %     3.0 %     2.6 %

Loan Amount:

          

$100,000 or less

     17.9 %     19.5 %     20.5 %     21.9 %     23.6 %

Over $100,000 and up to $250,000

     56.4 %     59.1 %     61.9 %     63.4 %     64.6 %

Over $250,000

     25.7 %     21.4 %     17.6 %     14.8 %     11.9 %

GSE conforming loans**

     91.7 %     91.8 %     93.3 %     93.9 %     92.9 %

GSE non-conforming loans**

     8.3 %     8.2 %     6.7 %     6.1 %     7.1 %

Less-than-A Quality

     8.0 %     9.3 %     10.9 %     11.9 %     11.9 %

Alt-A

     19.9 %     17.2 %     12.7 %     8.7 %     6.3 %

Average primary loan size (in thousands)

   $ 142.5     $ 136.0     $ 131.1     $ 127.3     $ 123.1  

Pool Risk in Force (in millions)

          

GSE Pool

   $ 112.2     $ 116.0     $ 122.2     $ 485.3     $ 794.1  

Old Pool

   $ 346.7     $ 420.6     $ 501.7     $ 656.8     $ 863.8  

Modified Pool

   $ 2,527.0     $ 1,809.6     $ 1,517.1     $ 1,390.9     $ 1,159.6  

Other Traditional Pool

   $ 230.6     $ 242.8     $ 266.8     $ 325.2     $ 310.1  

*   Due to rounding, the sums of the percentages may not total 100%.
**   GSE conforming loans have principal balances that do not exceed the maximum single-family principal balance loan limit eligible for purchase by the GSEs. GSE non-conforming loans have principal balances that exceed the GSE loan limits. Since January 1, 2006, the maximum single-family principal balance loan limit has been $417,000.
n.m.   not meaningful

 

   

High LTV Loans.    LTV is the ratio of the original loan amount to the value of the property. In our experience, 95s, mortgages with LTVs between 90.01% and 95.00%, have higher claims frequencies than those of 90s, mortgages with LTVs between 85.01% and 90.00%. In addition, we believe that 97s, mortgages with LTVs between 95.01% and 97.00%, and Above 97s, mortgages with LTVs exceeding 97.00%, have higher claims frequencies than 95s.

 

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Fixed v. Adjustable Rate Mortgages.    Based on our experience, the claims frequency of adjustable rate mortgages, or ARMs, is generally higher than on fixed rate loans. We consider a loan an ARM if its interest rate may be adjusted prior to the loan’s fifth anniversary.

 

   

Interest Only Loans and Payment Option ARMs.    Since 2004, interest only loans, also known as deferred amortization loans, and payment option ARMs have been popular with some borrowers and we have insured an increased amount of these loans during this period. Borrowers with interest only loans do not reduce principal during the initial deferral period (usually between two and ten years) and therefore do not accumulate equity through loan amortization during the initial deferral period. With a payment option ARM, a borrower generally has an option every month to make a payment consisting of principal and interest, interest only, or an amount established by the lender that may be less than the interest owed. Depending on prevailing interest rates and payment amounts, monthly payments may not be sufficient to fully cover interest due, in which case the shortfall is added to the principal amount of the loan in a manner known as “negative amortization.” While typically the amount of negative amortization allowed under the loan is capped, borrowers with payment option ARMs may choose not to reduce principal during the early years of the loan and may increase the principal amount owed. Accordingly, interest only loans and payment option ARMs have more exposure to declining home prices than amortizing loans. In addition, these loans may have interest rate risks similar to traditional ARMs.

 

   

Less-than-A Quality and Alt-A Loans.    We insure less-than-A quality loans and Alt-A loans through our primary flow and structured finance channels. We define less-than-A quality loans to include loans with FICO scores generally less than 620. We define Alt-A loans as loans where the borrower’s FICO score is 620 or higher and the loan includes certain characteristics such as reduced documentation verifying the borrower’s income, assets, deposit information, and/or employment.

 

   

Average Primary Loan Size.    As the table above shows, our average insured loan size increased each year since 2002. These increases were primarily caused by home price appreciation throughout the United States. Because our premium rates are based in part upon the size of the insured loan, higher average loan sizes favorably impact premiums written and earned. Our obligation to an insured with respect to a claim is generally determined by multiplying the stated coverage percentage by the loss amount, which includes any unpaid principal and interest. Accordingly, higher insured loan balances could negatively affect our average claim sizes.

 

As shown in the table above, the percentages of risk in force containing Above 97s, interest only loans, payment option ARMs, and Alt-A loans increased in 2006. We believe that these increases were driven by, and reflect, higher concentrations of these types of loans as percentages of both the 2006 mortgage origination market and the 2006 private mortgage insurance market. (See also Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—U.S. Mortgage Insurance Operations, Credit and portfolio characteristics.)

 

We expect higher default and claim rates for high LTV loans, ARMs, interest only loans, payment option ARMs, less-than-A quality, and Alt-A loans and incorporate these assumptions into our underwriting approach, portfolio limits, pricing, and loss and claim estimates. In 2006, PMI’s average premium rate increased primarily as a result of its primary portfolio containing higher percentages of high LTV and Alt-A loans. However, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment income will prove adequate to compensate for future losses from these loans. We offer pre- and post-purchase borrower counseling as part of certain expanding markets programs in an effort to reduce the risk of default on those loans. We also believe that the risk reduction features of our modified pool products, which may include deductibles, mitigate our risk of loss from the loans insured.

 

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The following table shows U.S. primary risk in force by FICO score:

 

    

Percentage of

Primary Risk

in Force by

FICO Score

As of December 31,

 
         2006             2005             2004      

FICO Score:

      

Less than 575

   2.1 %   2.5 %   3.0 %

575—619

   5.9 %   6.8 %   7.9 %

620—679

   34.7 %   34.6 %   33.8 %

680—719

   24.5 %   24.1 %   23.4 %

720 and above

   31.5 %   30.6 %   30.3 %

Unreported

   1.3 %   1.4 %   1.6 %
                  

Total

   100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %
                  

 

5.   Sales and Product Development

 

We employ a sales force located throughout the U.S. to directly sell products and services to lenders. Our U.S. sales force is comprised entirely of PMI employees who receive compensation consisting of a base salary and incentive compensation tied to performance objectives. PMI’s product development and structured finance departments have primary responsibility for the creation of new products and services.

 

6.   Risk Management

 

Risk Management Approach

 

We utilize proprietary and other statistical models to measure and predict loan performance based on the historical prepayment and loss experience of loans. We analyze performance based on borrower, loan and property characteristics, along with geographic factors, through historic economic and real estate cycles. We use the outputs from these models to develop and refine how we price our coverage and in the establishment of national and regional underwriting guidelines to control the concentrations of risk in PMI’s portfolio. In developing guidelines, we also take into account the GSEs’ underwriting guidelines. Our underwriting guidelines generally allow us to place mortgage insurance coverage on any mortgage loan accepted by the GSEs’ automated underwriting systems for purchase by the GSEs.

 

We continually monitor risk concentrations in our portfolio using various statistical tools. Among these are the pmiAURAsm System and the PMI Market Risk Indexsm. The pmiAURAsm System is a proprietary risk scoring tool we developed over 19 years ago that assigns a unique risk score to each loan in PMI’s portfolio corresponding to the predicted likelihood of an insured loan going to claim based on demographic, geographic, economic, and loan specific characteristics. The PMI Market Risk Indexsm is a proprietary statistical model that predicts the probability of a decline in home prices during the next two years in the Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States based on local, historical home price appreciation, changes in the local labor markets and local home affordability. We publish the output of this model on a quarterly basis.

 

Underwriting Process

 

To obtain mortgage insurance on an individual mortgage loan, a customer submits an application to us. If the loan is approved for mortgage insurance, we issue a commitment to the customer. During the last several years, advances in technology have enabled us to offer customers the option of electronic submission of applications and supporting documentation, as well as electronic receipt of insurance commitments and certificates. Customer use of our electronic delivery options accounted for approximately 79% of PMI’s new policies issued in the primary flow channel in 2006, compared to approximately 75% in 2005 and 69% in 2004.

 

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Delegated Underwriting.    More than 81% of PMI’s flow NIW is underwritten pursuant to a delegated underwriting program that allows approved lenders, subject to our routine audit, to determine whether loans meet program guidelines and are thus eligible for mortgage insurance. If a lender participating in the program commits us to insure a loan that fails to meet all of the applicable underwriting guidelines, we are obligated to insure such a loan except under certain narrowly-drawn exceptions, such as a failure to meet maximum LTV criteria. Delegated underwriting enables us to meet mortgage lenders’ demands for immediate insurance coverage of certain loans. We believe that the performance of our delegated insured loans will not vary materially over the long-term from the performance of all other insured loans.

 

Non-Delegated Underwriting.    Flow customers that are not approved to participate in the delegated program generally must submit to us an application for each loan, supported by various documents. Verification of the borrower’s employment, income and funds needed for the loan closing are required in addition to the appraisal.

 

Structured Transactions.    Structured transactions (including both primary and modified pool insurance) generally involve our bidding for a customer’s delivery to us of a portfolio of loans that have been previously underwritten and closed under one or more loan programs. Regardless of the fact that the customer or lender has previously underwritten the loans, we evaluate each transaction on a loan-by-loan basis and as a portfolio. In the loan-by-loan review, we analyze the characteristics of each loan and compare them to forecasts of performance generated by proprietary performance and pricing models. In the portfolio review, we analyze the diversity and the aggregate risk characteristics of the portfolio as a whole. We also review the applicable servicer ratings and origination practices as well as the risks and potential mitigating factors inherent in the proposed coverage structure, which may include, among other things, coverage limits, stop loss limits and deductibles.

 

In some structured transactions, we provide commitments for the future delivery of insurance coverage. The same processes described above are used to review an indicative portfolio of loans. Our commitments are contingent upon a loan-by-loan review of the actual loans delivered and allow for adjustments if the characteristics of the actual delivery vary materially from those of the indicative portfolio.

 

Contract Underwriting

 

Contract underwriting services are provided by our wholly-owned subsidiary, PMI Mortgage Services Co., or MSC. MSC provides contract underwriting services for mortgage loans for which PMI provides mortgage insurance and for mortgage loans for which PMI does not provide insurance. MSC also performs the contract underwriting activities of CMG MI.

 

As a part of its contract underwriting services, MSC provides to its customers monetary and other remedies, including loan indemnifications under certain circumstances, in the event that MSC fails to properly underwrite a mortgage loan. These remedies are separate from the insurance coverage provided by PMI. MSC paid or accrued $12.4 million in contract underwriting remedies in 2006, compared to $14.5 million in 2005. Worsening economic conditions or other factors that could lead to increases in PMI’s primary insurance default rate could also cause the number and magnitude of the remedies that must be offered by MSC to increase.

 

New policies processed by MSC contract underwriters in 2006 declined to 14.8% of PMI’s primary NIW from 18.1% in 2005. We anticipate that loans underwritten by MSC will continue to make up a significant percentage of PMI’s NIW and that contract underwriting will remain the preferred method among some mortgage lenders for processing loan applications. The number of contract underwriters deployed by MSC is related to the volume of mortgage originations.

 

7.   Expanding Markets

 

Expanding homeownership opportunities for low- to moderate-income individuals and typically underserved communities is important to us. Our approach to affordable lending is to develop, insure and

 

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promote products and services that assist responsible borrowers who may not qualify for mortgage loans under traditional underwriting practices. These products and services do not accommodate borrowers who have failed to manage their affairs responsibly; rather, they seek to identify those home buyers who have met or will meet their obligations in a timely and conscientious manner. The beneficiaries of these programs have included recent immigrants who have not established traditional credit histories, borrowers not accustomed to using traditional savings institutions, borrowers with less than five percent for a down payment, and home buyers who, although consistently employed, lack the stability traditionally associated with having a single employer due to the nature of their employment.

 

We have also established partnerships with numerous national and local organizations to mitigate affordable housing risks, expand the understanding of responsibilities of homeownership and promote community revitalization. Although programs offered under our affordable housing initiatives receive the same credit and actuarial analysis as all other standard programs, some programs utilize affordable underwriting guidelines established by lenders that differ from our standard criteria. We believe that some insured affordable housing loans may carry higher risks than other insured loans. As a result, we have instituted various programs, including pre- and post-purchase borrower counseling, risk-sharing and risk-based pricing, seeking to mitigate the additional risks that may be associated with some affordable housing loan programs.

 

8.   Defaults and Claims

 

Defaults

 

Our claim process begins with notification by the insured or servicer to us of a default on an insured loan. “Default” is defined in PMI’s primary master policies as the borrower’s failure to pay when due an amount equal to the scheduled monthly mortgage payment under the terms of the mortgage. Generally, the master policies require an insured to notify us of a default no later than the last business day of the month following the month in which the borrower becomes three monthly payments in default. For reporting and internal tracking purposes, we do not consider a loan to be in default for the purposes of reporting defaults and default rates until a loan has been delinquent for two consecutive monthly payments. Depending upon its scheduled payment date, a loan delinquent for two consecutive payments could be reported to us between the 31st and 60th day after the first missed payment. Borrowers default for a variety of reasons, including a reduction of income, unemployment, divorce, illness, inability to manage credit, and interest rate levels. Borrowers may cure defaults by making all of the delinquent loan payments or by selling the property in full satisfaction of all amounts due under the mortgage.

 

In most cases, defaults that are not cured result in claims. However, because the rate at which defaults cure is influenced by borrowers’ financial resources and regional housing and economic conditions, the frequency of claims is not directly proportional to the number of defaults we receive. PMI partners with lenders to work with borrowers to cure defaults through repayment plans, loan modifications and short sales.

 

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Primary default rates differ from region to region in the United States depending upon economic conditions and cyclical growth patterns. The two tables below set forth primary default rates by region for the various regions of the United States and the ten largest states by PMI’s primary risk in force. Default rates are shown by region based on location of the underlying property.

 

    

Primary Default Rates by

Region as of

December 31,

 
         2006             2005             2004      

Region

      

Pacific (1)

   2.98 %   2.55 %   2.74 %

New England (2)

   4.27 %   3.78 %   3.19 %

Northeast (3)

   5.51 %   5.34 %   4.75 %

South Central (4)

   5.21 %   7.16 %   4.85 %

Mid-Atlantic (5)

   3.39 %   3.36 %   3.33 %

Great Lakes (6)

   8.86 %   7.79 %   7.29 %

Southeast (7)

   5.74 %   6.31 %   5.57 %

North Central (8)

   5.60 %   5.22 %   4.63 %

Plains (9)

   4.57 %   4.53 %   3.94 %

Total Primary Portfolio

   5.55 %   5.74 %   4.86 %

(1)   Includes California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon and Washington and Alaska.
(2)   Includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.
(3)   Includes New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.
(4)   Includes Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah.
(5)   Includes Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Washington D.C. and West Virginia.
(6)   Includes Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.
(7)   Includes Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Puerto Rico.
(8)   Includes Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin.
(9)   Includes Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

 

    

Percent of
Primary Risk in

Force as of
December 31,

2006

   

Primary Default Rates for Top Ten

States by

Primary Risk in Force (1)

 
       Default Rate
as of December 31,
 
           2006             2005             2004             2003             2002      

Florida

   10.7 %   3.44 %   3.91 %   3.97 %   3.89 %   4.15 %

Texas

   7.4 %   5.63 %   6.47 %   5.39 %   5.02 %   4.27 %

California

   7.0 %   3.56 %   2.34 %   2.57 %   3.08 %   3.20 %

Illinois

   5.1 %   5.58 %   5.41 %   4.82 %   4.55 %   4.39 %

Georgia

   4.7 %   7.86 %   8.16 %   7.20 %   5.99 %   5.13 %

Ohio

   4.3 %   8.79 %   7.68 %   7.64 %   6.86 %   5.80 %

New York

   3.8 %   5.40 %   4.93 %   4.52 %   4.52 %   4.35 %

Pennsylvania

   3.6 %   6.00 %   5.93 %   5.22 %   4.64 %   4.21 %

Michigan

   3.2 %   10.83 %   8.85 %   7.54 %   6.76 %   6.10 %

New Jersey

   3.1 %   4.62 %   4.74 %   4.22 %   4.29 %   3.71 %

(1)   Top ten states as determined by primary risk in force as of December 31, 2006.

 

Claims and Policy Servicing

 

Whether an uncured default leads to a claim principally depends on the borrower’s equity in the underlying property at the time of default and the borrower’s or the insured’s ability to sell the home for an amount sufficient to satisfy all amounts due under the mortgage loan. When the likelihood of a defaulted loan being reinstated is minimal, we work with the servicer of the loan for a possible loan workout or early disposal of the

 

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underlying property. Property dispositions typically result in a reduction in our losses compared to the percentage coverage option amount payable under PMI’s master policies.

 

Within 60 days after a primary insurance claim and supporting documentation have been filed, we have the option of:

 

   

paying the coverage percentage specified in the certificate of insurance multiplied by the loss amount;

 

   

in the event the property is sold pursuant to an agreement made prior to or during the 60-day period after the claim is filed, which we refer to as a prearranged sale, paying the lesser of (i) 100% of the loss amount less the proceeds of sale of the property or (ii) the specified coverage percentage multiplied by the loss amount; or

 

   

paying 100% of the loss amount in exchange for the insured’s conveyance to us of good and marketable title to the property, with us then selling the property for our own account. Properties acquired under this option are included on PMI’s balance sheet in other assets as residential properties from claim settlements, also referred to as real estate owned, or REO.

 

While we select the claim settlement option that best mitigates the amount of our claim payment, we generally pay the coverage percentage multiplied by the loss amount. In 2006 and 2005, we processed 22.9% and 25.1%, respectively, of the paid primary insurance claims on the basis of a prearranged sale. In 2006 and 2005, we exercised the option to acquire the property on 4.6% and 3.6%, respectively, of the primary claims processed for payment. At December 31, 2006, our carrying value, which approximates fair value, of REO properties was $26.9 million compared to $18.5 million at December 31, 2005.

 

Claims and the Aging of PMI’s Insurance Portfolio.    Claims activity is not spread evenly throughout the coverage period of a primary insurance book of business. We expect the significant majority of claims on insured loans in PMI’s current portfolio to occur in the second through fourth years after loan origination. Primary insurance written from the period of January 1, 2003 through December 31, 2005 represented 58.1% of PMI’s primary insurance in force at December 31, 2006.

 

The following table sets forth the dispersion of PMI’s primary insurance in force and risk in force as of December 31, 2006, by year of policy origination and average annual mortgage interest rate.

 

    

Insurance and Risk in Force by Policy Year

and Average Coupon Rate

 
     Average
Rate (1)
   

Primary
Insurance in

Force

   Percent
of
Total
    Primary Risk
in Force
   Percent
of
Total
 
           (In millions)          (In millions)       

Policy Year

            

1997 and prior

   —   %   $ 1,372    1.3 %   $ 336    1.3 %

1998

   6.9 %     899    0.9 %     235    0.9 %

1999

   7.4 %     1,446    1.4 %     377    1.5 %

2000

   8.1 %     790    0.8 %     190    0.7 %

2001

   7.0 %     2,978    2.9 %     696    2.7 %

2002

   6.5 %     6,277    6.1 %     1,520    5.9 %

2003

   5.8 %     17,245    16.8 %     4,084    15.9 %

2004

   5.8 %     17,711    17.3 %     4,507    17.5 %

2005

   5.9 %     24,668    24.0 %     6,254    24.3 %

2006

   6.4 %     29,249    28.5 %     7,512    29.3 %
                            

Total Portfolio

     $ 102,635    100.0 %   $ 25,711    100.0 %
                            

(1)   Average annual thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rate derived from Freddie Mac and Mortgage Bankers Association data.

 

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Claim Severity.    The severity of an individual claim is calculated as the ratio of the claim paid to the original risk in force relating to the loan. The main determinants of the severity of a claim are the value of the underlying property, accrued interest on the loan, expenses advanced by the insured, foreclosure expenses, the amount of mortgage insurance coverage placed on the loan, and the time required to complete foreclosure, which varies depending on state laws. Pre-foreclosure sales, acquisitions and other early workout efforts help to reduce overall claim severity. The average primary claim severity has decreased from 100% in 1994 to 86.1% in 2005 and 2006. Average primary claim severity is, for a given period, primary claims paid as a percentage of the total risk in force of primary loans for which claims were paid.

 

Pool Claims.    Pool claims are generally filed after the underlying property is sold. We settle a pool claim in accordance with the terms of the applicable pool insurance policy, which includes a stop loss limit and, in some cases, a specified deductible. Subject to such stop loss limit and any deductible, our modified pool insurance generally covers a specified percentage of the particular loss less net proceeds from the sale of the property and any primary claim proceeds. Our traditional pool insurance generally covers 100% of the loss less net proceeds from the sale of the property and any primary claim proceeds. Other pool insurance policies may include a maximum coverage percentage or a defined benefit. Claims relating to policies with a maximum coverage percentage are settled at the lesser of the actual loss or the maximum coverage set forth in the applicable policy. Claims relating to policies with defined benefits are settled at the maximum coverage percentage set forth in the applicable policy. We settle pool claims upon receipt of all supporting documentation.

 

Primary insurance claims paid by PMI in 2006 decreased to $214.0 million from $214.9 million in 2005. Pool insurance claims paid by PMI in 2006 (excluding Old Pool) decreased to $18.3 million from $21.6 million in 2005.

 

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Loan Performance

 

The table below shows cumulative losses paid by PMI at the end of the year of original policy issuance (“policy year”) and each successive year thereafter, expressed as a percentage of the cumulative premiums written on such policies.

 

Percentage of Cumulative Primary Insurance Losses Paid (Gross)

To Cumulative Primary Insurance Premiums Written (Gross)*

 

Year   Policy Issue Year (Loan Closing Year)
  1987   1988   1989   1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996
1   —     —     —     —     —     —     —     —     0.1   —  
2   0.4   0.1   0.3   0.7   0.8   1.1   1.0   1.0   2.8   2.9
3   2.0   2.0   3.6   7.1   6.6   6.9   5.5   6.5   10.4   8.3
4   5.1   6.1   10.8   17.8   16.9   16.3   13.4   13.7   15.4   11.9
5   9.7   11.6   21.9   31.7   28.9   28.3   18.7   18.0   18.2   14.2
6   13.1   18.5   32.4   41.8   39.8   36.1   21.1   20.1   19.2   15.3
7   17.5   23.1   40.3   50.5   47.4   40.3   21.9   20.9   20.1   15.8
8   20.7   26.2   45.7   56.2   51.3   41.5   22.0   21.3   20.3   16.1
9   23.0   29.1   49.6   59.2   52.7   41.3   21.8   21.3   20.4   16.3
10   25.1   31.5   51.7   60.9   52.6   41.1   21.6   21.3   20.5   16.5
11   26.5   33.6   52.8   61.4   52.7   41.0   21.7   21.4   20.6   16.6
12   27.8   34.6   53.1   61.4   52.7   41.0   21.7   21.4   20.7  
13   28.4   35.0   53.3   61.4   52.6   41.0   21.7   21.4    
14   28.6   35.2   53.3   61.4   52.6   41.0   21.6      
15   28.5   35.2   53.2   61.4   52.6   41.0        
16   28.5   35.2   53.2   61.5   52.6          
17   28.6   35.2   53.2   61.5            
18   28.6   35.2   53.2              
19   28.5   35.2                
20   28.5                  
    1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006
1   —     —     0.1   1.2   1.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3
2   2.3   1.2   2.7   10.2   6.6   4.5   2.8   3.9   4.9  
3   5.8   3.8   5.9   21.8   22.5   14.5   8.9   12.3    
4   8.7   5.7   8.6   35.2   34.1   23.3   13.9      
5   10.4   6.7   11.1   43.0   42.0   27.7        
6   11.1   7.7   12.7   48.0   45.8          
7   11.9   8.3   13.9   50.3            
8   12.4   8.8   14.4              
9   12.8   9.0                
10   13.0                  

*   Gross premiums written includes ceded and refunded premiums.

 

The above table shows that all policy years through 1996 have cumulative loss payment ratios at the end of 2006 that differ by no more than 0.1% from the end of 2005, an indication that these ratios have stabilized and reached their ultimate development for each of these policy years. Policy years 1997 through 1999 also have seen only slight claims development since the end of 2005.

 

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Policy years 1987 through 1988 have developed to cumulative loss payment ratios of 28.5% and 35.2%, respectively. Policy years 1989 through 1992 have developed to somewhat higher ratios between 41.0% and 61.5%, reflecting both higher levels of claims on California loans insured in those years, as well as higher prepayment speeds when market rates dropped to relatively low levels from late 1992 through early 1994. Loss payment ratios continued to decline year-to-year after 1993, bottoming out at 9.0% at the end of nine years for the 1998 policy year, a record low. The declines were due to an improvement in California’s economy and a strong national economy with no material regional weaknesses. The 1999 policy year is developing at a level slightly higher than 1998, but still at low levels. Given the small amount of business left in the 1996 through 1999 books, further development is expected to be immaterial.

 

The higher levels of claims in the 2000 and 2001 policy years were a result of an expansion into less-than-A quality and Alt-A loan product offerings primarily through the introduction of our structured transactions channel. These loan types generally have shorter lives and earlier incidence of default than A quality loans, leading to earlier emergence of claims and shorter streams of premium income. In addition, our A quality business written in 2000 and 2001 was subject to high levels of policy cancellations in 2003 due to low interest rates and heavy refinancing. These policy cancellations decreased the accumulated premium received from the 2000 and 2001 policy years, affecting the cumulative loss payment ratio development by increasing the ratio of claims paid to premiums received.

 

The 2002 book year is developing favorably compared to 2000 and 2001 due to a lower level of claims. 2003 is performing favorably compared to 2002 due to lower levels of claims and higher persistency. 2004 has a slightly higher cumulative loss payment ratio development at two and three years than 2003, due to slightly higher claims development and comparable persistency. 2005 has a higher cumulative loss payment ratio development at two years primarily due to higher claims development associated with the portion of PMI’s portfolio that contains ARMs, high LTV and less-than-A quality loans and the seasoning of primary NIW acquired principally through our structured finance channel.

 

Loss Reserves

 

A period of time may elapse between the occurrence of the borrower’s default on mortgage payments (the event triggering a potential future claims payment), the reporting of such default to us and the eventual payment of the claim related to such default. To recognize the liability for unpaid losses related to the loans in default, PMI, in accordance with industry practice, establishes loss reserves in respect of loans in default based upon the estimated claim rate and estimated average claim amount of loans in default. Included in loss reserves are loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves, and incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves. IBNR reserves represent our estimated unpaid losses on loans that are in default but have not yet been reported to us as delinquent by our customers. Loss reserves are estimates and there can be no assurance that PMI’s reserves will prove to be adequate to cover ultimate loss developments on reported defaults. Consistent with industry accounting practices, PMI does not establish loss reserves for estimated potential defaults that have not occurred but that may occur in the future. For a full discussion of our loss reserving policy and process, see Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Critical Accounting Estimates, Reserves for Losses and LAE. For a reconciliation of the beginning and ending reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses on a consolidated basis, see Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Note 8. Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses.

 

9.   Reinsurance

 

We and other mortgage insurers use reinsurance for capital and risk management purposes. Reinsurance does not discharge PMI, as the primary insurer, from liability to a policyholder. The reinsurance company simply agrees to indemnify PMI for the reinsurance company’s share of losses incurred under designated insurance policies, unlike an assumption and novation agreement, where the assuming reinsurance company’s liability to the policyholder is substituted for that of PMI.

 

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PMI has a 5% quota share reinsurance agreement in place with a participating reinsurance company relating to primary insurance business written by PMI from 1994 through 1997. Under the terms of this agreement, the reinsurance company indemnifies PMI for 5% of all losses paid under the reinsured primary insurance business and PMI cedes 5% of the related premiums, less a ceding commission paid to PMI for underwriting and administering the business. In addition, PMI may be entitled to a profit commission in the event specified profit targets are met on the ceded business.

 

Effective January 1, 2001, PMI commenced reinsuring our wholly-owned Australian subsidiary, PMI Mortgage Insurance Ltd, on an excess-of-loss basis. Under the terms of the agreement, for each of the calendar years from 2001 through 2005, PMI is obligated to indemnify PMI Mortgage Insurance Ltd for losses that exceed 130% of PMI Mortgage Insurance Ltd’s net earned premiums for each such year, but not for losses that exceed 220% of such net earned premiums. Beginning January 1, 2006, PMI is obligated to indemnify PMI Mortgage Insurance Ltd for losses that exceed 100% of PMI Mortgage Insurance Ltd’s net earned premiums for each such year, but not for losses that exceed 190% of such net earned premiums. The agreement provides for automatic one-year extensions, unless terminated upon prior notice by either party. Upon such notice of termination, the agreement would continue in effect in the year of such notice and for the next four calendar years.

 

Certain states limit the amount of risk a mortgage insurer may retain on a single loan to 25% of the indebtedness to the insured, and as a result, the portion of such insurance in excess of 25% must be reinsured. To minimize reliance on third party reinsurance companies and to permit PMI to retain the premiums (and related risk) on deep coverage business, The PMI Group, our parent company, formed several wholly-owned subsidiaries including Residential Guaranty Co., or RGC, Residential Insurance Co., or RIC, and PMI Mortgage Guaranty Co., or PMG, to provide reinsurance of such deep coverage to PMI. These deep cede reinsurance agreements with RGC, PMG and RIC replaced reciprocal deep cede reinsurance agreements that PMI had with certain non-affiliate mortgage insurance companies, which have now largely runoff. PMI uses reinsurance provided by its reinsurance affiliates solely for purposes of compliance with statutory coverage limits. CMG MI also uses reinsurance provided by its reinsurance affiliate, CMG Reinsurance Company, to comply with statutory limits.

 

As discussed in Section B.1, Products, above, PMI also reinsures portions of its risk written on loans originated by certain lenders with captive reinsurance companies affiliated with such lenders.

 

10.   Regulation

 

State Regulation

 

General.    Our U.S. mortgage insurance subsidiaries are subject to comprehensive, detailed regulation by the insurance departments of the various states in which they are licensed to transact business. The principal aim of this regulation is to safeguard their solvency for the protection of policyholders. Although their scope varies, state insurance laws generally grant broad powers to supervisory agencies or officials to examine the financial books and records of companies, as well as their market conduct and practices, and to enforce rules or exercise discretion touching most significant aspects of the insurance business.

 

Mortgage insurers are generally restricted by state insurance laws and regulations to writing mortgage insurance business only. This restriction prohibits our mortgage insurance subsidiaries from directly writing other kinds of insurance. Our non-insurance subsidiaries are not subject to regulation under state insurance laws except with respect to transactions with their insurance affiliates.

 

Insurance Holding Company Regulations.    All states have enacted legislation that requires each insurance company in a holding company system to register with the insurance regulatory authority of its state of domicile and to furnish to such regulatory authority financial and other information concerning the operations of, and the interrelationships and transactions among, companies within the holding company system that may materially

 

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affect the operations, management or financial condition of the insurers within the system. The states also regulate transactions between insurance companies and their parents and affiliates.

 

The PMI Group is treated as an insurance holding company under the laws of the State of Arizona. The Arizona insurance laws govern, among other things, certain transactions in our common stock and certain transactions between or among The PMI Group and its domestic and international subsidiaries. For example, no person may, directly or indirectly, offer to acquire or acquire voting securities of The PMI Group or any one of the Arizona subsidiaries, if after consummation thereof, such person would be in control, directly or indirectly, of such entity, unless such person obtains the Arizona Director of Insurance’s prior approval. For purposes of the foregoing, “control” is rebuttably presumed to exist if such person, following the acquisition, would, directly or indirectly, own, control or hold with the power to vote or hold proxies representing 10% or more of the entity’s voting securities. In addition, all material transactions involving PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., referred to as MIC, PMG, RGC, and/or RIC and any of their affiliates, such as PMI Australia and PMI Europe, are subject to prior approval of the Arizona Director of Insurance, and are subject to disapproval if they are found to be not “fair and reasonable.” MIC, on behalf of itself and its affiliates, is required to file an annual insurance holding company system registration statement with the Arizona and Wisconsin Departments of Insurance (and any other states that so request) disclosing all inter-affiliate relationships, transactions and arrangements that occurred or were in effect during the prior calendar year, and providing information on The PMI Group, the holding company’s “ultimate controlling person.” We must also submit and update biographical information about the executive officers and directors of the holding company’s insurance subsidiaries, as well as executive officers and directors of The PMI Group.

 

The insurance holding company laws and regulations are substantially similar in Wisconsin (where CMG MI, Commercial Loan Insurance Corporation, or CLIC, and WMAC Credit Insurance Corporation, or WMAC Credit, are domiciled), and transactions among these subsidiaries, or any one of them and another affiliate (including The PMI Group) are subject to regulatory review and approval in the respective states of domicile. FGIC is subject to regulation under insurance holding company statutes of New York, where it is domiciled, as well as other jurisdictions where FGIC is licensed to do insurance business. Transactions between FGIC and The PMI Group and its subsidiaries are subject to prior approval of the New York Department of Insurance.

 

Risk-to-Capital.    A number of states generally limit the amount of insurance risk that may be written by a mortgage insurer to 25 times the insurer’s total policyholders’ surplus. PMI’s risk-to-capital ratio as of December 31, 2006 was 8.1 to 1.

 

Reserves.    Our mortgage insurance subsidiaries are required under the insurance laws of their state of domicile and many other states, including New York and California, to establish a special contingency reserve with annual additions of amounts equal to 50% of premiums earned. Contingency reserves are required to be held for ten years (and then released into surplus), although earlier releases may be authorized by state insurance regulators in certain cases. The first year that MIC released contingency reserves into surplus, following the ten year holding period, was 2002. At December 31, 2006, PMI had statutory policyholders’ surplus of $638.0 million and statutory contingency reserves of $2.7 billion.

 

Dividends.    MIC paid extraordinary dividends of $350 million and RGC paid ordinary dividends of $10 million to The PMI Group in 2006. Our Arizona insurance subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends (including returns of capital) to The PMI Group as their sole shareholder is limited, among other things, by the insurance laws of Arizona and other states. Under Arizona law, an insurance subsidiary may pay dividends out of available surplus without prior approval of the Arizona Director of Insurance, as long as such dividends during any 12-month period do not exceed the lesser of (i) 10% of policyholders’ surplus as of the preceding calendar year end, or (ii) the preceding calendar year’s net investment income. MIC is permitted to pay ordinary dividends (as such are termed under the Arizona statute) to The PMI Group of $51.8 million in 2007 without prior approval of the Arizona Director of Insurance, provided that any such dividends are paid after the first anniversary of payment of the last installment of 2006 dividends. Any dividend in excess of this amount (either alone or

 

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together with other dividends/distributions made in the last 12 months) is an extraordinary dividend and requires the prior approval of the Arizona Director of Insurance. The Arizona Director of Insurance may approve an extraordinary dividend if he or she finds that, following the distribution, the insurer’s policyholders’ surplus is reasonable in relation to its liabilities and adequate to its financial needs. On June 7, 2006, the Director of the Arizona Department of Insurance approved an extraordinary dividend request of $250 million. This dividend was paid to the PMI Group in two installments of $150 million in August of 2006 and $100 million in September of 2006. On December 14, 2006, the Director of the Arizona Department of Insurance approved an additional extraordinary dividend request of $250 million. In December 2006, a $100 million installment of this dividend was paid to The PMI Group. The second installment of the approved $250 million dividend is expected to be paid in the first half of 2007.

 

In addition to Arizona, other states may limit or restrict our insurance subsidiaries’ abilities to pay shareholder dividends. For example, California, New York and Illinois prohibit mortgage insurers from declaring dividends except from undivided profits remaining on hand over and above the aggregate of their paid-in capital, paid-in surplus and contingency reserves. CMG MI is subject to shareholder dividend/distribution restrictions under Wisconsin laws similar to those applicable to PMI.

 

Insurance regulatory authorities have broad discretion to limit the payment of dividends by insurance companies. For example, if insurance regulators determine that payment of a dividend or any other payments to an affiliate (such as payments under a tax-sharing agreement, payments for employee or other services, or payments pursuant to a surplus note) would, because of the financial condition of the paying insurance company or otherwise, be hazardous to such insurance company’s policyholders or creditors, the regulators may block payments that would otherwise be permitted without prior approval.

 

Premium Rates and Policy Forms.    Our insurance subsidiaries’ borrower-paid premium rates and policy forms are subject to regulation in every jurisdiction in which each is licensed to transact business. In most U.S. jurisdictions, policy rates must be filed prior to their use. In some U.S. jurisdictions, forms must also be approved prior to use.

 

Reinsurance.    Regulation of reinsurance varies by state. With the notable exceptions of Arizona, Illinois, Wisconsin, New York, and California, most states have no special restrictions on mortgage guaranty reinsurance other than standard reinsurance requirements applicable to property and casualty insurance companies. Certain restrictions apply under Arizona law to domestic companies and under the laws of several other states to any licensed company ceding business to unlicensed or unaccredited reinsurance companies. Under such laws, if a reinsurance company is not admitted or accredited in such states, the domestic company ceding business to the reinsurance company cannot take credit in its statutory financial statements for the risk ceded to such reinsurance company absent compliance with certain minimum statutory capital and reinsurance security requirements. In addition, Arizona prohibits reinsurance unless the reinsurance agreements meet certain requirements even if no statutory financial statement credit is taken.

 

Examinations.    Our licensed insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries are subject to examination of their financial condition and market conduct by the insurance departments of each of the states in which they are licensed to transact business. The Arizona Director of Insurance periodically conducts a financial examination of insurance companies domiciled in Arizona. The Arizona Director of Insurance last examined MIC in 2003 for the five year period ended December 31, 2002. In lieu of examining a foreign insurer (i.e., an insurer licensed but not domiciled in a state), the insurance supervisors may accept an examination report by a state that has been accredited by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Thus, while states have the authority to examine all licensed insurers, in practice, insurance supervisors for the most part defer to the examination reports issued by the domiciliary supervisor. CMG MI, CLIC and WMAC Credit were examined by the Wisconsin Department of Insurance in 2003 for the three year period ended December 31, 2002. The final examination reports are public records and can be obtained from the applicable state’s department of insurance.

 

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GSEs.    In order to be eligible to insure loans purchased by the GSEs, mortgage insurers must meet Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s eligibility requirements. These requirements, among other things, impose standards for minimum ratings, legal compliance, use of reinsurance, including captive reinsurance, policies and procedures, risk-sharing, and reporting requirements.

 

National Association of Insurance Commissioners.    The National Association of Insurance Commissioners, or NAIC, is an organization of the state insurance regulators of all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and U.S. Territories. A major objective of the NAIC is to promote uniformity and harmonization of insurance regulation among the states by the adoption and promulgation of model laws and regulations. The NAIC has developed a rating system, the Insurance Regulatory Information System, or IRIS, primarily intended to assist state insurance departments in overseeing the statutory financial condition of all insurance companies operating within their respective states. IRIS consists of key financial ratios, which are intended to indicate unusual fluctuations in an insurer’s statutory financial position and/or operating results. The NAIC applies its IRIS financial ratios to PMI on a continuing basis in order to monitor PMI’s financial condition.

 

Federal Laws and Regulation

 

Certain federal laws, such as the Homeowners Protection Act discussed below, directly affect private mortgage insurers. Private mortgage insurers, including PMI, are impacted indirectly by federal legislation and regulation affecting mortgage originators and lenders, purchasers of mortgage loans, such as the GSEs, and governmental insurers such as the FHA and VA. For example, changes in federal housing legislation and other laws and regulations that affect the demand for private mortgage insurance may have a material adverse effect on PMI. Legislation that increases the number of persons eligible for FHA or VA mortgages could have a material adverse effect on our ability to compete with the FHA or VA.

 

Mortgage origination transactions are subject to compliance with various federal and state consumer protection laws, including the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974, or RESPA, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Fair Housing Act, the Homeowners Protection Act, the Fair Credit Reporting Act, or FCRA, the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act, and others. Among other things, these laws and their implementing regulations prohibit payments for referrals of settlement service business, require fairness and non-discrimination in granting or facilitating the granting of credit, require cancellation of insurance and refunding of unearned premiums under certain circumstances, govern the circumstances under which companies may obtain and use consumer credit information, and define the manner in which companies may pursue collection activities. Changes in these laws or regulations could adversely affect the operations and profitability of our mortgage insurance business.

 

The Homeowners Protection Act of 1998, or HOPA, provides for the automatic termination, or cancellation upon a borrower’s request, of private mortgage insurance upon satisfaction of certain conditions. HOPA applies to owner-occupied residential mortgage loans regardless of lien priority and to borrower-paid mortgage insurance closed on or after July 29, 1999. FHA loans are not covered by HOPA. Under HOPA, automatic termination of mortgage insurance would generally occur once the LTV reaches 78%. A borrower who has a “good payment history,” as defined by HOPA, may generally request cancellation of mortgage insurance once the LTV reaches 80% of the home’s original value or when actual payments reduce the loan balance to 80% of the home’s original value, whichever occurs earlier.

 

The Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974, or RESPA, applies to most residential mortgages insured by PMI. Mortgage insurance has been considered in some cases to be a “settlement service” for purposes of loans subject to RESPA. Subject to limited exceptions, RESPA prohibits persons from giving or accepting any thing of value in connection with the referral of real estate settlement services. RESPA is enforced by HUD and the U.S. Department of Justice, and also provides for private rights of action. In late 2004, HUD announced that it intended to submit a rule proposal under RESPA to the Office of Management and Budget for review. HUD has taken no further action to date but senior officials have publicly stated that they continue to work on a new proposed rule. We do not know what form, if any, the rule will take and whether it will be approved.

 

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Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975.    Most originators of mortgage loans are required to collect and report data relating to a mortgage loan applicant’s race, nationality, gender, marital status, and census tract to HUD or the Federal Reserve under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975, or HMDA. Mortgage insurers are not required pursuant to any law or regulation to report HMDA data, although, under the laws of several states, mortgage insurers are currently prohibited from discriminating on the basis of certain classifications. Mortgage insurers have, through the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, entered voluntarily into an agreement with the Federal Financial Institutions Examinations Council to report the same data on loans submitted for insurance as is required for most mortgage lenders under HMDA.

 

Privacy and Information Security.    The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, or GLB, imposes privacy requirements on financial institutions, including obligations to protect and safeguard consumers’ nonpublic personal information and records, and limitations on the re-use of such information. Federal regulatory agencies have issued the Interagency Guidelines Establishing Information Security Standards (Security Guidelines), and interagency regulations regarding financial privacy (Privacy Rule) implementing sections of GLB. The Security Guidelines establish standards relating to administrative, technical and physical safeguards to ensure the security, confidentiality, integrity, and the proper disposal of consumer information. The Privacy Rule limits a financial institution’s disclosure to nonpublic personal information to unaffiliated third parties unless certain notice requirements are met and the consumer does not elect to prevent, or “opt out” of the disclosure. The Privacy Rule also requires that privacy notices provided to customers and consumers describe the financial institutions’ policies and practices to protect the confidentiality and security of the information. With respect to PMI, GLB is enforced by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (“FTC”) and state insurance regulators. Many states have enacted legislation implementing GLB and establishing information security regulation. Many states have enacted privacy and data security laws which impose compliance obligations beyond GLB, including obligations to provide notification in the event that a security breach results in a reasonable belief that unauthorized persons may have obtained access to consumer nonpublic information. Privacy and data security in the financial service industry continue to be the subject of pending legislation on both federal and state levels.

 

Fair Credit Reporting Act.    The Fair Credit Reporting Act of 1970, as amended, or FCRA, imposes restrictions on the permissible use of credit report information. FCRA has been interpreted by some FTC staff to require mortgage insurance companies to provide “adverse action” notices to consumers in the event an application for mortgage insurance is declined on the basis of a review of the consumer’s credit. The Fair Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003, or FACTA, amends and reauthorizes certain provisions of FCRA, including provisions which direct the FTC, and the Federal Reserve Board, or FRB, to promulgate regulations requiring notice to any consumer receiving an extension or grant of credit based on a counter offer by the creditor on material terms, including interest rate, that are materially less favorable than the terms generally available from the creditor to consumers, based in whole or in part on a consumer report. No regulations have yet been proposed, and the FTC and FRB have stated that those provisions of FACTA that require regulation will not be effective until the date specified in the final regulations. The risk-based pricing notice provision is among the affected provisions. It is not clear at this point what that regulation will provide or what its impact, if any, will be on our mortgage insurance operations. See Item 3. Legal Proceedings below for information about litigation against PMI involving FCRA allegations.

 

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C.   International Operations

 

Our International Operations segment generated 20.6% of our consolidated revenues in 2006 compared to 19.0% in 2005. Revenues from PMI Australia were $202.0 million and 16.8% of our consolidated revenues in 2006 and $170.8 million and 15.3% of our consolidated revenues in 2005. Revenues from PMI Europe were $33.9 million and 2.8% of our consolidated revenues in 2006 and $30.2 million and 2.7% of our consolidated revenues in 2005. Revenues from PMI Asia were $12.7 million and 1.0% of our consolidated revenues in 2006 and $11.4 million and 1.0% of our consolidated revenues in 2005. See Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—International Operations, and Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Note 17. Business Segments, for additional information about geographic areas.

 

Our international mortgage insurance and credit enhancement operations include our operations in Australia and New Zealand, the European Union and Hong Kong. We expect to begin operations in Canada in the first half of 2007 and are exploring other international opportunities.

 

Australia and New Zealand

 

Our Australia and New Zealand mortgage insurance operations, collectively “PMI Australia,” are headquartered in Sydney, Australia, with offices throughout Australia and New Zealand. PMI Australia’s financial strength is rated “AA” by S&P and Fitch, and “Aa2” by Moody’s. PMI Australia is a party to capital support agreements, guaranteed by The PMI Group, in which PMI agrees to provide funds to ensure that PMI Australia holds prudent levels of capital sufficient to maintain its credit ratings. At December 31, 2006, the total assets of PMI Australia were $1.1 billion compared to $0.9 billion at December 31, 2005.

 

Australian mortgage insurance, known as “lenders mortgage insurance,” or LMI, is characterized by single premiums and coverage of 100% of the loan amount. Lenders usually collect the single premium from a prospective borrower and remit the amount to PMI Australia as the mortgage insurer. PMI Australia recognizes earnings from single premiums in its financial statements over time in accordance with an actuarially determined multi-year schedule. Premiums are partly refundable if the policy is cancelled within the first year.

 

LMI covers the unpaid loan balance, plus selling costs and expenses, following the sale of the underlying property. Historically, loss severities have normally ranged from 20% to 30% of the original loan amount. In New Zealand, insurance coverage is predominantly “top cover,” where the total loss (including expenses) is paid up to a prescribed percentage of the original loan amount. Typical top cover in New Zealand ranges between 20% and 30% of the original loan amount. Approximately 96% of PMI Australia’s risk in force covers Australian mortgages.

 

The substantial majority of the loans insured by PMI Australia are variable interest rate loans with terms up to 30 years. Interest rate changes impact the frequency of defaults and claims with respect to these loans. Since mortgage interest is not tax deductible in Australia or New Zealand on owner-occupied properties, borrowers have a strong incentive to accelerate reduction of their principal balance by amortizing or prepaying their mortgages.

 

PMI Australia’s NIW includes flow channel insurance and insurance on loans underlying residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBS. RMBS transactions include insurance on seasoned portfolios comprised of prime credit quality loans that often have LTVs below 80%. In 2006, 49.5% of PMI Australia’s NIW was RMBS insurance written, compared to 36.8% in 2005. Activity levels in the Australian RMBS market vary from quarter to quarter and are strongly influenced by macro-economic factors.

 

The five largest Australian banks collectively provide 75% or more of Australia’s residential housing financing. These banks represented approximately 20% of PMI Australia’s gross premiums written in 2006,

 

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compared to approximately 26% in 2005. Other market participants in Australian and New Zealand mortgage lending include regional banks, building societies, credit unions, and non-bank mortgage originators. PMI Australia’s five largest customers provided 57.6% of PMI Australia’s 2006 gross premiums written, compared to 62.9% in 2005.

 

A significant portion of PMI Australia’s business is acquired through quota share reinsurance agreements with several of its lending customers’ captive LMI companies. These quota share reinsurance agreements typically contain a contractual period under which the lender agrees to send PMI Australia a proportion of business written. PMI Australia wrote approximately 31% of its new business premiums under these agreements in 2006, compared to approximately 37% in 2005.

 

PMI Australia’s principal competitor is Genworth Financial. Two other U.S.-based mortgage insurance companies, which have agreed to merge, have announced their intention to issue mortgage insurance in Australia in 2007. In addition, several large banks have captive LMI companies in Australia. We expect PMI Australia will face increased competition in the future. Such competition may take a number of forms including domestic and offshore LMI companies, reinsurers of residential mortgage credit risk, increased risk appetite from lender owned captive insurers and non insurance forms of credit risk transfer. New market competitors have the potential to impact PMI Australia’s market share and to impact pricing of credit risk in the market as a whole.

 

PMI Australia is subject to regulation and examination by both the Australia and New Zealand regulatory authorities concerning many aspects of its business, including the ability to pay dividends. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (“APRA”) regulates financial services institutions in Australia, including mortgage insurance companies. APRA sets minimum capital levels and corporate governance requirements for PMI Australia, and reviews PMI Australia’s management, controls, underwriting, reporting, and reinsurance strategies.

 

APRA intends to implement Basel II capital requirements for financial institutions effective January 1, 2008. Such implementation may have a significant impact on the future market acceptance of LMI in Australia. PMI Australia has provided comments on APRA’s initial Basel II proposals. If adopted as APRA has proposed, the proposals could reduce the available market for LMI among PMI Australia’s bank customers. It is not known at this time whether APRA will revise its Basel II proposals in response to comments it received from LMI industry participants.

 

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Risk in Force.    The composition of PMI Australia’s risk in force is summarized in the table below. The table is based upon information available on the date of mortgage origination.

 

     December 31
     2006    2005    2004

Risk in Force (in percentages, except where indicated)*

        

LTV:

        

Above 97s

     0.4      0.3      0.2

97s

     0.5      0.4      0.3

95s

     15.3      15.0      14.8

90s

     16.2      18.5      19.0

85s and below

     67.7      65.8      65.7

Property Type:

        

Single-family detached

     90.2      89.6      90.9

Condominium, townhouse, cooperative

     8.4      8.9      7.9

Multi-family dwelling and other

     1.3      1.5      1.3

Occupancy Status:

        

Owner Occupied

     83.2      81.5      81.0

Non-owner occupied

     16.8      18.5      19.0

Loan Amount (in US$):

        

$100,000 or less

     18.3      24.7      24.9

Over $100,000 and up to $250,000

     53.6      53.4      53.2

Over $250,000

     28.1      21.9      21.9

Low Documentation Loans

     7.9      7.8      5.0

Average loan size (in thousands)

   $ 141.0    $ 122.2    $ 122.7

Flow Risk in Force (in millions)

   $ 81,490    $ 71,160    $ 68,885

RMBS Risk in Force (in millions)

   $ 54,051    $ 37,591    $ 34,250

Total Risk in Force (in millions)

   $ 135,541    $ 108,751    $ 103,135

*   Due to rounding, the sums of the percentages may not total 100%.

 

   

High LTV Loans.    High LTV loans for Australia are loans above 95% LTV. Loans above 100% LTV are not presently written in Australia. PMI Australia typically charges higher premium rates for coverage on high LTV loans.

 

   

Low Documentation Loans.    Low documentation (“Low Doc”) loans have become an increasing part of Australian and New Zealand lending. Low Doc loans are available only to self employed borrowers who self certify income where the LTV is 80% or less. Confirmation of self employment and good credit history is also required. Higher premium rates apply to these loans. Applicable bank capital regulations require lenders to allocate 100% capital for Low Doc loans above 60% LTV unless LMI coverage is acquired. We expect higher default and claims rates associated with Low Doc loans and incorporate these assumptions into our pricing and portfolio tolerances.

 

Underwriting and Claims Management.    PMI Australia utilizes the pmiAURAsm System, a statistical model used to analyze PMI Australia’s claims frequency risk, as part of its underwriting and risk analysis program. This methodology is the same as that applied by PMI in the U.S., but was developed for PMI Australia using Australian claims, economic and demographic information. The pmiAURAsm System assigns a predictive claim risk score to individual policies. PMI Australia also commenced the electronic submission of applications and delivery of underwriting decisions in 2004.

 

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As in the United States, mortgage insurance underwriting decisions have been delegated by PMI Australia to certain of its customers. Delegated underwriting allows approved customers, subject to agreed policy limitations, to commit PMI Australia to offering LMI with respect to a mortgage loan. The pmiAURAsm System is also used to analyze these arrangements which are subject to regular compliance audit by PMI Australia. PMI Australia may be committed to insure a loan that fails to meet all the agreed delegated guidelines. Long-term performance of delegated insured loans is not expected to vary materially from the performance of all other insured loans.

 

The claims processes in Australia and New Zealand are similar to the process followed by PMI in the U.S. Claims activity in Australia and New Zealand is not spread evenly throughout the coverage period of an insurance book of business. We expect the significant majority of claims on insured loans in PMI Australia’s current portfolio to principally occur in the second through fourth years after loan origination. The following table sets forth the dispersion of PMI Australia’s risk in force as of December 31, 2006, by year of policy origination:

 

Policy Year

   Primary Risk in
Force
   Percent
of Total
 
     (in millions)  

Prior to 1999

   $ 13,669    10.1 %

1999

     3,594    2.7 %

2000

     5,019    3.7 %

2001

     7,281    5.4 %

2002

     8,720    6.4 %

2003

     13,466    9.9 %

2004

     22,819    16.8 %

2005

     22,168    16.4 %

2006

     38,805    28.6 %
             

Total Portfolio

   $ 135,541    100.0 %
             

 

The following table sets forth default and claims experience for PMI Australia for the years 2004 through 2006:

 

       2006      2005      2004

Policies in force (as of December 31)

       1,055,057        981,732        926,073

Loans in default (as of December 31)

       2,281        1,264        751

Default rate (as of December 31)

       0.22%        0.13%        0.08%

Flow default rate (as of December 31)

       0.31%        0.17%        0.11%

RMBS default rate (as of December 31)

       0.06%        0.05%        0.03%

Claims paid (in thousands)

     $ 15,523      $ 3,261      $ 1,272

Number of claims paid

       302        93        65

Average claim size (in thousands)

     $ 51.4      $ 35.1      $ 19.6

 

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Default rates differ from state to state in Australia depending upon economic conditions and cyclical growth patterns. The table below sets forth default rates by state for PMI Australia’s risk in force. Default rates are shown by state based on location of the underlying property.

 

    

Percent of Risk in
Force As of
December 31,

2006

    Default Rates by State As of December 31  
       2006     2005     2004  

State

        

Australian Capital Territory (ACT)

   1.8 %   0.09 %   0.06 %   0.02 %

New South Wales (NSW)

   35.8 %   0.40 %   0.23 %   0.11 %

Northern Territory (NT)

   0.5 %   0.05 %   0.03 %   0.22 %

Queensland (QLD)

   21.0 %   0.16 %   0.08 %   0.05 %

South Australia (SA)

   6.5 %   0.14 %   0.08 %   0.06 %

Tasmania (TAS)

   0.8 %   0.13 %   0.02 %   0.03 %

Victoria (VIC)

   18.1 %   0.25 %   0.16 %   0.10 %

Western Australia (WA)

   11.5 %   0.06 %   0.06 %   0.06 %

New Zealand (NZ)

   4.0 %   0.07 %   0.05 %   0.07 %
            

Total Portfolio

   100.0 %      

 

The higher default rates in nearly all of the above states in 2006 were driven primarily by higher interest rates and moderating or declining home prices across Australia. The largest increases in default rates were in the Sydney (NSW) area. The portion of PMI Australia’s risk in force relating to Low Doc loans also contributed to the increases in the default rates in 2006. (See Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, International Operations—PMI Australia.) For discussion of PMI Australia’s loss reserves, see Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, Critical Accounting Estimates, Reserves for Losses and LAE—International Operations.

 

Privacy.    As in the United States, the collection and use of personal information in Australia is subject to strict regulation at both the federal and state levels. For example, the Federal Privacy Act establishes a series of national privacy principles that apply to all businesses, including insurance companies. In general, companies may only collect, store, disclose, and use personal information if consent has been obtained from the persons concerned or if certain other conditions are met.

 

Europe

 

PMI Mortgage Insurance Company Limited (collectively with our other European subsidiaries referred to as “PMI Europe”) is a mortgage insurance and credit enhancement company incorporated and located in Dublin, Ireland, with branches or offices in Milan, Frankfurt and Brussels, and an affiliated services company in London. PMI Europe is fully authorized to provide credit, suretyship and miscellaneous financial loss insurance by Ireland’s Financial Regulator. This authorization enables PMI Europe to offer its products in the European Union member states and certain other jurisdictions. PMI Europe’s claims paying ability is rated “AA” by S&P and Fitch and “Aa3” by Moody’s. These ratings are based upon PMI Europe’s capitalization, its management expertise, a capital support agreement provided by PMI, and a guarantee by The PMI Group of PMI’s obligations under the capital support agreement. At December 31, 2006, the total assets of PMI Europe were $243.4 million compared to $227.6 million at December 31, 2005.

 

PMI Europe currently offers capital markets products, reinsurance and primary insurance, all of which are related to credit default risk on residential mortgage loans. As of December 31, 2006, PMI Europe had provided credit protection with respect to German, Dutch, British, U.S. and Italian residential mortgage loans. Capital markets products are designed to support secondary market transactions, notably credit-linked notes, collateralized debt obligations, mortgage-backed securities, or synthetic securities transactions (principally, credit

 

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default swap transactions). Lenders frequently engage in these transactions to reduce the capital they must hold pursuant to local banking capital regulations or to provide funding for their mortgage lending activities.

 

At December 31, 2006, approximately 63% of PMI Europe’s risk in force was indirectly derived from fourteen credit default swap transactions, all of which were designed primarily to allow the mortgage lenders involved to reduce the level of required regulatory capital. In six of these transactions, PMI Europe assumed a “first loss,” unrated risk position. In the remaining transactions, PMI Europe’s risk position was rated at least investment grade, the majority being rated “AAA.” Competitors in this product line include mortgage insurance companies, financial guaranty insurance companies, banks, hedge funds, traditional bond investors and other structuring alternatives where no third party credit enhancement is provided.

 

PMI Europe offers reinsurance coverage to both captive insurers and financial guaranty companies. The typical arrangement is excess-of-loss reinsurance where PMI Europe reinsures a mortgage lender’s captive insurance company above the level of “expected losses” but less than a catastrophic level of losses. These transactions are believed to be risk-remote in that the lender or its captive insurer assumes a significant amount of “first loss” risk. This insurance structure is used occasionally in the United Kingdom by its larger mortgage lenders.

 

Financial guaranty companies also purchase reinsurance to manage risk exposure and capital requirements. PMI Europe provides excess-of-loss reinsurance where it assumes a second loss position behind over-collateralization, excess spread mechanisms and potentially other forms of credit enhancement in a mortgage-backed security that absorb losses before PMI Europe. PMI Europe has completed six such transactions to date.

 

PMI Europe also provides quota share reinsurance where it assumes risk pari passu with an insurer. PMI Europe has completed one such transaction to date. As of December 31, 2006, approximately 8% of PMI Europe’s risk in force stemmed from excess-of-loss reinsurance and 1% stemmed from quota share reinsurance. Potential competitors with respect to these products include mortgage insurance companies, other financial guarantors and multi-line insurers.

 

PMI Europe’s third product line, primary insurance, is similar to the primary insurance products offered in the U.S., Australia and New Zealand. As of December 31, 2006, approximately 28% of PMI Europe’s risk in force stemmed from primary insurance. Primary insurance is mortgage insurance applied to, priced and settled on each loan. This product is currently purchased regularly in several European countries. PMI Europe is attempting to develop greater interest and use of primary insurance in other European countries. PMI Europe commenced writing this product in Italy in 2005 and established a branch in 2006 to write this product in Germany in 2007. Potential competitors at the moment include mortgage insurers and multi-line insurers. A majority of PMI Europe’s primary insurance in force stems from its acquisition of a portion of the U.K. lenders’ mortgage insurance portfolio of Royal and Sun Alliance in the fourth quarter of 2003. PMI Europe recognizes premiums associated with this portfolio in accordance with established earnings patterns that are based upon management’s estimation of the expiration of the portfolio’s risk. Accordingly, we expect the premiums earned and risk in force associated with the portfolio to continue to decline through the remaining life of the portfolio.

 

For discussion on PMI Europe’s loss reserves, refer to Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, Critical Accounting Estimates, Reserves for Losses and LAE—International Operations.

 

The applicable regulator of PMI Europe is the Irish Financial Regulator (the “IFR”). Ireland is a member of the European Union and applies the harmonized system of regulation set out in the European Union directives. Under applicable regulations, PMI Europe may provide insurance only in the classes for which it has authorization and must maintain required capital reserves. Irish insurance companies are required, among other things, to submit comprehensive annual returns to the IFR. The IFR has broad powers to intervene in the affairs of insurance companies including the power to enforce, and take remedial and disciplinary action with respect to,

 

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its regulations. Under IFR regulations, insurance companies must maintain a margin of solvency, the calculation of which is based on recent years’ premium volumes and claims experience, and which supplements technical loss and premium reserve requirements.

 

In October 2005, the European Union adopted new legislation, the Capital Requirements Directive (“CRD”), which provides a revised framework for EU member nation banking supervisors to implement new Basel II risk based capital guidelines starting in 2007. The CRD prescribes standard criteria for credit risk mitigation instruments eligible to provide banks with risk relief. We believe the CRD facilitates recognition of mortgage insurance benefits for European banks and, as a result, could increase demand for mortgage insurance products if such recognition of mortgage insurance is ultimately incorporated into the regulatory framework of EU member countries, which we believe will occur in many such countries in 2007.

 

In Europe, the collection and use of personal information is subject to detailed regulation. The European Union’s Data Protection Directive establishes a series of privacy requirements that EU member states are obliged to enact in their national legislation. These requirements generally apply to all businesses, including PMI Europe, and include the provision of notice to borrowers concerning how their personal information is used and disclosed and provisions limiting the transfer of personal information to countries outside the European Union.

 

Asia

 

We have been providing mortgage reinsurance in Hong Kong since 1999. Prior to 2006, we offered mortgage reinsurance through a Hong Kong branch office. In June 2006, our newly formed subsidiary, PMI Asia, received its insurance authorization from the Hong Kong Insurance Authority. Subsequent to its receipt of authorization, PMI Asia assumed our Hong Kong branch’s entire mortgage reinsurance portfolio. PMI Asia’s principal reinsurance agreement is with the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation, a public sector entity created to add liquidity to the Hong Kong residential mortgage market. For the year ended December 31, 2006, we reinsured a total of approximately $0.5 billion of loans. Insurance in force was $2.5 billion at December 31, 2006, compared to $2.4 billion at December 31, 2005. In 2005 and 2006, the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation increased, and will increase further in 2007, the percentage of mortgage insurance risk and associated premiums that it retains, thereby reducing our reinsurance and premiums written. In light of these reductions, future growth by PMI Asia in Hong Kong will be increasingly dependent upon growth in the Hong Kong mortgage market and mortgage insurance penetration of that market.

 

PMI Asia, among other reinsurers, generally provides reinsurance “down-to” coverage in Hong Kong which, with the underlying mortgage insurance, reduces the insured’s exposure on each loan down to a specified coverage percentage, usually 70% LTV. Unlike in the United States, the underlying mortgage insurance and reinsurance coverage generally expires when loans amortize below their down-to coverage percentage, i.e., 70% LTV. Approximately 30% of PMI’s reinsurance written in 2006 was comprised of loans with LTVs between 90.01% and 95.00%, compared with 35% of loans with LTVs between 85.01% and 90.00% and 35% of loans with LTVs between 70.01% and 85.00%.

 

PMI generally delegates underwriting decisions with respect to particular loans to the reinsured pursuant to detailed written underwriting guidelines agreed to in advance by the parties. The significant majority of reinsurance written by PMI Asia is single premium coverage. In 2006, PMI made claim payments of $0.2 million (net of recoveries). PMI Asia’s payment of its claims obligations with respect to its Hong Kong reinsurance portfolio is guaranteed by PMI Europe.

 

We hope to expand our product offerings to one or more other Asian countries in 2007.

 

Canada

 

We are forming a wholly-owned Canadian subsidiary (“PMI Canada”), with headquarters in Toronto, Ontario. We expect PMI Canada to begin offering residential mortgage insurance products to Canadian lenders

 

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and mortgage originators in 2007. Prior to offering such products, PMI Canada must obtain a license to write mortgage insurance from the Canadian Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (“OSFI”), the primary regulator of mortgage insurers in Canada. In addition, PMI Canada must obtain a government guarantee, described further below, from the Canadian Ministry of Finance in order to compete effectively. We have applied for the license and the guarantee and expect to receive both in the first half of 2007.

 

Federally regulated financial institutions, or FRFIs, are not required to maintain regulatory capital on mortgages backed by a sovereign guarantee. We are seeking to enter into an agreement with the Canadian Ministry of Finance pursuant to which it will guarantee, in the event PMI Canada became insolvent, the benefits payable under mortgage insurance policies we issue in Canada, less 10% of the original principal amount of the insured loan. In the event we successfully enter into this agreement, which we expect to do in 2007, the guarantee would permit FRFIs who purchase our mortgage insurance to reduce their regulatory capital charges for credit risks on insured mortgages by 90%. In exchange for this guarantee, we expect that we will be required to pay the Canadian government a quarterly premium and, for a period of time, quarterly guarantee fund deposits. Our largest private competitor in Canada already operates with the benefit of a similar government issued guarantee.

 

Prior to offering mortgage insurance in Canada, PMI Canada intends to seek a financial strength rating from DBRS, the principal rating agency in Canada. In order to acquire this rating, PMI and PMI Canada will enter into a capital support agreement for the benefit of PMI Canada.

 

In Canada, we expect to offer primary flow mortgage insurance, similar to primary insurance in Australia, and structured finance products. Currently, the OSFI requires FRFIs to obtain credit enhancement for residential mortgages that are greater than 75% loan-to-value. Non-regulated originators and FRFIs also are interested in limiting default risk in order to offer more flexible loan terms. We expect to offer structured product solutions to portfolio lenders seeking capital relief or credit enhancement, and to investors seeking to facilitate MBS transactions or mortgage portfolio sales. We expect that our products will generally be single-premium and provide coverage for the insured loan’s unpaid principal balance, interest and expenses, following the sale of the underlying property.

 

Five large banks in Canada provide approximately 70% of the financing for Canada’s residential mortgage market. Other market participants include regional banks, trust companies, mortgage loan companies, and credit unions. The non-bank lender sectors of the mortgage market, sectors in which we expect to participate, increased in 2005 and 2006, and the credit union lending sector now represents approximately 6% of the origination market. The typical mortgage product in the Canadian market has a one to five year rate reset and a 25 year amortization schedule.

 

The market for primary mortgage insurance in Canada is well established and, excluding PMI Canada, currently has two main mortgage insurers, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (“CMHC”) and Genworth. The CMHC is a government-owned entity that provides lenders with 100% capital relief from bank capital requirements. Additional U.S. based mortgage insurers have stated their intent to enter the Canadian market.

 

Foreign Currency Exchange

 

We are subject to foreign currency exposure due to operations in foreign countries whose currencies fluctuate relative to the U.S. dollar, the basis of our consolidated financial reporting. Such exposure falls into two general categories: economic exposure and transaction exposure.

 

Economic exposure is defined as the change between anticipated net cash flows in currencies other than the U.S. dollar and the actual results that are reflected in our consolidated financial statements after translation. To the extent there are changes in the average translation rates from local currencies to the U.S. dollar, our recorded consolidated net income can be positively or negatively affected. If the U.S. dollar strengthens relative to other

 

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applicable foreign currencies, our net income from our International Operations segment will be negatively impacted by translation losses. Conversely, if the U.S. dollar weakens against other applicable foreign currencies, our net income from International Operations will be positively impacted by translation gains. Through the purchase of foreign currency put options, we have mitigated the negative impact to consolidated net income due to a strengthening U.S. dollar. As the options purchased increase in value as the U.S. dollar strengthens, such increases in the value of the options are reflected in our consolidated results of operations as derivative option gains. If the U.S. dollar were to weaken relative to the Australian dollar or the Euro, our consolidated net income would continue to be positively affected (less the cost of the options purchased) by translation gains and the purchased options would expire unexercised. In March 2006, to mitigate the negative impact to net income of a strengthening U.S. dollar, PMI Australia purchased foreign currency (Australian dollar) put options at a total pre-tax cost of $1.3 million. To mitigate the negative impact to net income of a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, PMI Europe also purchased foreign currency (Euro) put options at a total pre-tax cost of $0.1 million. These options expired ratably over the course of 2006. As of December 31, 2006, the total cost of these options, net of realized gains recognized to net income, was net losses of $1.2 million and $0.1 million for PMI Australia and PMI Europe, respectively. We have entered into a similar foreign exchange put option program in 2007 at a pre-tax cost of $1.3 million.

 

We do not currently hedge foreign currency exposures of net investments in our foreign operations. If the spot exchange rates of the U.S. dollar relative to other applicable foreign currencies change, our net investment in our foreign operations will be impacted. Foreign currency translation gains in accumulated other comprehensive income were $172.4 million as of December 31, 2006, due primarily to the strengthening of the spot exchange rates of the Australia Dollar and the Euro relative to the U.S. dollar. This cumulative foreign currency translation gain benefits PMI’s statutory surplus as PMI Australia and PMI Europe are its wholly-owned subsidiaries.

 

Transaction exposure refers to currency risk related to specific transactions and occurs between the time a firm commitment in a foreign currency is entered into and the time the cash is actually paid. Under our Derivative Use Plan’s Foreign Exchange Policy Guidelines, we are authorized to hedge our transaction exposure through the purchase of forward currency contracts. We did not engage in any hedging activities of transaction risk in 2006.

 

D.   Financial Guaranty

 

FGIC

 

We are the largest shareholder of FGIC Corporation, with a common equity ownership interest of 42.0%. FGIC Corporation’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Financial Guaranty Insurance Company ( “FGIC”), is a triple-A rated financial guaranty company. The other principal investors in FGIC Corporation are affiliates of The Blackstone Group, L.P., The Cypress Group L.L.C. and CIVC Partners L.P. We account for this investment under the equity method of accounting in accordance with Accounting Principles Board (APB) Opinion No. 18, The Equity Method of Accounting for Investments in Common Stock and, accordingly, the investment is not consolidated. We believe that this investment allows us to realize our strategic goal of becoming a global provider of credit enhancement products across multiple asset and risk classes, as well as achieving a major presence in the primary financial guaranty industry.

 

At December 31, 2006, FGIC had consolidated total assets of $5.0 billion, including $3.9 billion of cash, short-term investments and fixed maturity securities. At December 31, 2006, FGIC’s net insured par outstanding was $299.9 billion.

 

FGIC is primarily engaged in the business of providing financial guaranty insurance for public finance, structured finance and international finance (which is comprised of public finance and structured finance business outside the U.S.) obligations. FGIC is licensed to engage in financial guaranty insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, the United Kingdom, and other

 

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European Union member countries. FGIC’s financial strength is rated “AAA” by S&P and Fitch, and “Aaa” by Moody’s. FGIC Corporation’s senior unsecured debt is rated “AA” by S&P and Fitch and “Aa2” by Moody’s.

 

Financial guaranty insurance generally provides an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee that protects the holder of an insured financial obligation against non-payment of principal and interest by an obligor when due. If the issuer of an insured obligation cannot make the scheduled debt service payment, the financial guarantor assumes this responsibility as and when due. Payment by the financial guarantor does not extinguish the underlying obligation of the issuer, and such payments may be recoverable from the issuer. The financial guarantor is subrogated to the rights of the holders of the insured obligations and, in the event of payment under the policy, has rights in the underlying collateral, if any.

 

Financial guaranty insurance may be issued at inception of an insured obligation or may be issued in the secondary market, mainly to institutional holders. Financial guaranty insurance lowers an issuer’s cost of borrowing; the spread between the yield on the insured obligation (carrying the credit rating of the insurer) and the yield on the obligation if sold on the basis of its uninsured credit rating defines the maximum insurance premium available to the insurer. Financial guaranty insurance also increases the marketability of obligations issued by infrequent or unknown issuers or obligations with complex structures. Investors benefit from increased liquidity in the secondary market, reduced exposure to price volatility caused by changes in the credit quality of the underlying insured issue and added protection against loss in the event of the issuer’s default on its obligation.

 

U.S. Public Finance.    The U.S. public finance market includes municipal general obligation bonds supported by the issuer’s taxing power and special revenue bonds and other obligations of state and local governments supported by the issuer’s ability to impose and collect fees and charges for specific public services or projects. The issuer typically pays a one time premium to FGIC at the time the policy is issued. Proposed new public finance bond issues are submitted to FGIC by issuers, their investment bankers or financial advisors to determine their suitability for financial guaranty insurance. FGIC also provides financial guarantees on public finance bonds outstanding in the secondary market. A financial guarantee generally affords a wider secondary market and therefore greater marketability to previously issued bonds. As is the case with new issues, the premium is generally payable in full at the time of policy issuance. FGIC employs the same underwriting standards on secondary market issues that it does on new public finance issues. As of December 31, 2006, $219.3 billion, or 73.1%, of FGIC’s total net par outstanding represented insurance of public finance obligations. While this 73.1% represents a decline from 78.1% at December 31, 2005, we believe that FGIC’s public finance concentration remains higher than the industry average.

 

U.S. Structured Finance.    Most U.S. structured finance obligations are secured by, or represent interests in, diverse pools of specific assets, such as residential mortgage loans, auto loans, credit card receivables, other consumer receivables, corporate loans or bonds, small business loans, and commercial real estate loans. The pool of assets underlying the obligations has an identifiable cash flow or market value. Structured finance obligations insured by FGIC generally have the benefit of over-collateralization and/or other forms of credit enhancement to mitigate credit risks associated with the related assets. These forms of credit enhancement are designed to absorb losses in these transactions. Currently, the largest component of FGIC’s structured finance business relates to the securitization of residential mortgages and home equity loans.

 

Premiums for structured finance policies are typically based on a percentage of par insured, and can be collected in a single payment at the policy inception date or collected periodically (e.g., monthly, quarterly or annually) from the cash flow generated by the underlying assets. The U.S. structured finance market in which FGIC provides financial guarantees is broad and varied, comprising public issues and private placements. As of December 31, 2006, $68.0 billion, or 22.7%, of FGIC’s total net par outstanding, represented insurance of U.S. structured finance.

 

International Public Finance and Structured Finance.    Issuers are increasingly using financial guaranty products outside of the United States, particularly in markets throughout Western Europe. FGIC launched its

 

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international finance operation in late 2004 and to date has focused on insuring essential infrastructure transactions and triple-A rated collateralized loan and debt obligations. Premiums for international finance policies are based on a percentage of either par or par and interest insured. Depending upon the terms of the transaction, premiums are collected in a single payment at the policy inception date or are collected periodically. As of December 31, 2006, FGIC’s net par outstanding related to international finance transactions was $12.6 billion.

 

Competition.    The financial guaranty industry is highly competitive. FGIC’s principal competitors are three major triple-A rated financial guaranty insurance companies, two smaller triple-A rated financial guaranty insurance companies and one split-rated financial guaranty insurance company. Banks, multiline insurers and reinsurers represent additional participants in the market. Financial guaranty insurance competes with other forms of credit enhancement, including senior-subordinate structures and letters of credit issued by other financial institutions. Senior subordinated structures in the mortgage-backed sector reduce the number of transactions eligible for insurance. Financial guaranty insurance also competes, in nearly all instances, with the issuer’s alternative of foregoing credit enhancement and paying a higher interest rate. If the interest savings from insurance are not greater than the cost of insurance, the issuer will generally choose to issue bonds without credit enhancement. Accordingly, credit spreads—the difference in interest cost for issuers under different credit rating scenarios – are a significant factor in the issuer’s determination of whether to seek credit enhancement. As credit spreads tighten, the likelihood that issuers will choose to issue bonds without credit enhancement increases. (The tighter credit spreads reduce the insurance premium margin available, and an insurer is unlikely to offer insurance below a certain level of profitability.)

 

Loss Reserves.    FGIC’s and the financial guaranty industry’s incidence of payment default on insured bond issues has historically been very low. FGIC’s provision for losses and loss adjustment expenses fall into two categories: case reserves and watchlist reserves.

 

Case reserves are established for estimated losses on specific insured obligations that are presently or likely to be in payment default for which future loss is probable and can be reasonably estimated. These reserves represent an estimate of the present value of the anticipated shortfall, net of reinsurance, between (i) anticipated claims payments on insured obligations plus anticipated loss adjustment expenses and (ii) anticipated cash flow from, and proceeds to be received on, sales of any collateral supporting the obligation and/or other anticipated recoveries. The discount rate used in calculating the net present value of the estimated losses is based upon the risk-free rate for the period of the anticipated shortfall.

 

Watchlist reserves recognize the potential for claims against FGIC on insured obligations that are not presently in payment default, but that have migrated to an impaired level where there is a substantially increased probability of default. These reserves reflect an estimate of probable loss given evidence of impairment, and a reasonable estimate of the amount of loss given default. The methodology for establishing and calculating the watchlist reserves relies on a categorization and assessment of the probability of default, and loss severity in the event of default, of the specifically identified impaired obligations on the list based on historical trends and other factors. FGIC conducts ongoing insured portfolio surveillance to identify all impaired obligations and thereby provide a materially complete recognition of losses for each accounting period. Reserves are adjusted each period based on claim payments and the results of ongoing surveillance. Adjustments of estimates made in prior years may result in additional loss and loss adjustment expenses or a reduction of loss and loss adjustment expenses for the period in which the adjustment is made. See Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations —Conditions and Trends Affecting our Business—Financial Guaranty.

 

Regulation; Dividend Restrictions.    FGIC is subject to the insurance laws and regulations of the State of New York, where FGIC is domiciled, including Article 69, a comprehensive financial guaranty insurance statute. FGIC is also subject to the insurance laws and regulations of all other jurisdictions in which it is licensed to transact insurance business. The insurance laws and regulations, as well as the level of supervisory authority that may be exercised by the various insurance regulators, vary by jurisdiction, but generally require insurance

 

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companies to maintain minimum standards of business conduct and solvency, to meet certain financial tests, to comply with requirements concerning permitted investments and the use of policy forms and premium rates, and to file quarterly and annual statutory statements and other reports. FGIC’s accounts and operations are subject to periodic examination by the Superintendent of Insurance of the State of New York and by insurance regulatory authorities in the other jurisdictions in which FGIC is licensed to write insurance.

 

FGIC’s ability to pay dividends is subject to restrictions contained in the insurance laws and related regulations of New York and the other jurisdictions in which FGIC is licensed to do insurance business. Under New York insurance law, FGIC may pay dividends out of statutory earned surplus, provided that, together with all dividends declared or distributed by FGIC during the preceding 12 months, the dividends would not exceed the lesser of (i) 10% of policyholders’ surplus as of its last statement filed with the New York Superintendent of Insurance and (ii) adjusted net investment income during this period. Adjusted net investment income includes a two-year carry-forward for undistributed investment income. Any dividend distribution in excess of these requirements would require the prior approval of the New York Superintendent of Insurance.

 

In addition, so long as any FGIC Corporation senior preferred stock (or class B common stock issued upon conversion of that preferred stock) is outstanding, FGIC Corporation’s certificate of incorporation generally prohibits the payment of dividends or other payments on any of FGIC Corporation’s capital stock, except the senior preferred stock, without the consent of the holder of two-thirds of the outstanding shares of that preferred stock (or the class B common stock issued upon conversion of that preferred stock). This restriction does not apply to cash dividends declared and paid on the class A common stock after the ninth anniversary of the closing of the FGIC Corporation investment, provided that those dividends are paid from retained earnings in excess of the amount of FGIC Corporation’s retained earnings on the closing date of such investment, the amount of the dividends in any fiscal year does not exceed one-third of one percent of FGIC Corporation’s stockholders’ equity, and equivalent dividends are paid on the class B common stock.

 

The stockholders agreement between The PMI Group and the other investors in FGIC Corporation also restricts the payment of dividends by FGIC Corporation. The stockholders agreement provides that FGIC Corporation will not declare or pay cash dividends to holders of its common stock prior to the earlier of the fifth anniversary of the closing of the investment and the completion of the first underwritten public offering of FGIC Corporation’s common stock, and, in any event, that such dividends will not be paid prior to the redemption of FGIC Corporation’s senior preferred stock and class B common stock.

 

FGIC Corporation is further restricted in the payment of dividends by the terms of its 6% senior notes, due 2034. Except as described in the following sentence, FGIC Corporation may not pay dividends unless the amount of the dividends, together with other similar payments, or restricted payments, during any fiscal year does not exceed the greater of (i) 30% of FGIC Corporation and its subsidiaries’ consolidated net income for the previous fiscal year and (ii) 2.5% of the stockholders’ equity on the consolidated balance sheet of FGIC Corporation and its subsidiaries as of the end of the previous fiscal year. FGIC Corporation may make restricted payments regardless of amount so long as the payments would not reasonably be expected to cause an adverse change to either (i) the then current insurance financial strength rating and outlook of FGIC or (ii) FGIC Corporation’s then current senior unsecured debt rating and outlook.

 

Other.    FGIC operates as an independent company. Our stockholders agreement with the other members of the investor group provides for certain corporate governance arrangements with respect to FGIC and other important corporate matters.

 

PMI Guaranty

 

In 2006, we formed PMI Guaranty, a wholly-owned surety company based in New Jersey. PMI Guaranty received its certificate of authority from the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance in July 2006 and began operations in the fourth quarter of 2006. PMI Guaranty has financial strength ratings of AA+ by Fitch

 

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Ratings, AA by Standard & Poor’s, and Aa3 by Moody’s Investors Service. In addition, Standard & Poor’s assigned a AA Financial Enhancement Rating to PMI Guaranty. PMI Guaranty competes in the markets for AA-rated financial guaranty insurance, financial guaranty reinsurance and related credit enhancement products and services.

 

We initially capitalized PMI Guaranty with $200 million, which included $150 million of paid-in equity and a $50 million junior surplus note issued to The PMI Group. In addition, PMI Guaranty benefits from a capital support agreement with PMI, which is guaranteed by The PMI Group. The capital support agreement and corresponding guarantee are for a maximum of $650 million. As of December 31, 2006, PMI Guaranty had net reinsured par outstanding of $562.2 million.

 

Mortgage Related Credit Enhancement.    PMI Guaranty offers AA-rated financial guaranty type insurance for bonds that are backed by a broad array of mortgage-related assets, including first lien mortgages, second lien mortgages, Home Equity Lines of Credit, and mortgages with high LTV ratios. These products also insure bonds that are backed by the excess cash flow associated with the issuance of mortgage-backed securities, generally referred to as Net Interest Margin Securities. The excess cash flow results from the difference between the interest on the mortgages underlying the security and the interest paid on the bond (excess spread) and the fact that the principal value of the mortgages typically exceeds the principal amount of the offered bonds (over-collateralization). PMI Guaranty’s credit enhancement products guarantee that the principal and interest associated with the insured bonds will be paid to investors on the date due.

 

PMI Guaranty’s products differ from FGIC’s in several respects. First, while FGIC offers coverage on municipal bonds and structured finance obligations secured by a wide range of assets, PMI Guaranty’s current principal focus is to offer credit protection on bonds backed by mortgage-related assets. Second, as described below, PMI Guaranty typically insures MBS bonds that are less senior in priority than bonds typically insured by FGIC.

 

In a typical mortgage backed securitization structure, there are three levels of exposure to loss: first loss, mezzanine loss and remote loss. First loss usually refers to the over-collateralization and excess spread in the structure, sometimes augmented by mortgage insurance, as well as the non-rated tranches of the securitization structure. Losses associated with the pool of securitized loans will first be absorbed by mortgage insurance (if due to borrower default), excess spread and over-collateralization. If over-collateralization is depleted, and there is insufficient excess spread to make scheduled interest payments on issued securities, losses will then be allocated to the non-rated tranches and, once that is depleted, to those bonds in the securitization structure’s mezzanine tranches.

 

The mezzanine risk level generally consists of the non-investment grade rated tranches up to and including lower investment grade tranches. PMI Guaranty, as a AA-rated insurer, generally guarantees payment obligations on the tranches of the securitization structure that commence at a lower investment grade level (for example, BBB-) and end at the ‘AA’ attachment point (i.e., up to and including the ‘AA’ level). With the guarantee, issuers are able to offer AA-rated securities equal to the entire notional amount of these “wrapped” tranches.

 

We expect PMI Guaranty, through its financial guaranty product offerings, to capitalize on our expertise in the mortgage-related securities sector and complement the operations of PMI. While both PMI Guaranty and PMI will offer their products independently, we believe that the combination of first loss coverage from PMI and mezzanine loss coverage from PMI Guaranty in a securitization provides issuers with a more comprehensive credit enhancement solution.

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance.    PMI Guaranty also offers financial guaranty reinsurance to triple-A rated primary financial guarantors. PMI Guaranty’s reinsurance portfolio is expected to consist of securities that are backed by mortgage-related assets as well as municipal bonds. PMI Guaranty’s obligation to make payments of principal and interest to investors through its financial guaranty reinsurance product will arise when triple-A rated financial guarantors provide PMI Guaranty with notice that they will be responsible for making payments

 

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of principal and interest to investors. When provided with such notice, PMI Guaranty will be obligated to pay its proportionate share of any losses based upon the reinsurance treaty.

 

Triple-A rated financial guarantors, including FGIC, are required by the rating agencies to maintain amounts of capital exceeding those required of AA-rated financial guarantors. By providing reinsurance to triple-A rated financial guarantors, PMI Guaranty can reduce the amount of total capital held by the triple-A rated financial guarantors.

 

Competition.    PMI Guaranty faces significant competition in both the financial guaranty insurance and financial guaranty reinsurance arenas. In addition to PMI Guaranty, there is currently one AA-rated financial guarantor that provides financial guaranty insurance and at least three financial guarantee reinsurance competitors. PMI Guaranty also competes with alternative credit enhancement products and structures and capital market participants.

 

PMI Guaranty is subject to the insurance laws and regulations of the State of New Jersey, where it is domiciled. As a licensed surety corporation, PMI Guaranty is regulated by the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance.

 

RAM Re

 

We own 23.7% of RAM Holdings Ltd., a holding company for RAM Re. RAM Re is a financial guaranty reinsurance company based in Bermuda. RAM Re is currently rated “AAA” by S&P and “Aa3” by Moody’s. RAM Re and its holding company are subject to regulation under the laws of Bermuda. RAM Holdings Ltd. completed an initial public offering in the first quarter of 2006 and is publicly traded on the Nasdaq National Market.

 

RAM Re commenced business in February 1998 with the purpose of reinsuring municipal, structured finance and international debt obligations originally underwritten by triple-A rated guarantors. RAM Re provides reinsurance to primary financial guarantor companies that market credit enhancement of debt securities through insurance on scheduled payments on an issuer’s obligations. RAM Re’s insured portfolio consists primarily of municipal securities and structured products, principally asset-backed securities. RAM Re derives substantially all of its financial guaranty revenues from premiums ceded by the major primary financial guarantors.

 

When a primary financial guaranty company cedes a portion of a particular transaction to a reinsurer such as RAM Re, that reinsurer becomes obligated to pay its proportionate share of any losses should the reinsured transaction default. The ceding companies use such reinsurance for a variety of reasons, including to increase insurance capacity, assist in meeting applicable regulatory and rating agency requirements, in particular with respect to single risk and risk concentration limits, manage single risks and risk aggregations among servicers on asset backed transactions as well as for broader risk management purposes (such as addressing sector or geographic concentrations).

 

The financial guaranty policies which RAM Re reinsures typically cover full and timely payment of scheduled principal and interest on debt securities. A reinsurance company receives its share of the premium from the primary insurer, and typically pays a ceding commission to the primary insurer as compensation for underwriting expenses. Insurance is ceded by the primaries to the reinsurance companies either on a treaty or facultative basis. Treaty reinsurance typically involves an agreement covering a defined class of business where the reinsurance company must assume, and the insurer must cede, a portion of all risks defined by the terms of the treaty. In facultative agreements, reinsurance is negotiated on a case-by-case basis for coverage of individual transactions or business segments, giving both parties control over the credit process.

 

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E.   Investment Portfolio

 

As of December 31, 2006, The PMI Group and its consolidated subsidiaries had total cash and cash equivalents of $457 million and investments of $3.3 billion. In 2004, The PMI Group’s Board of Directors formed the Investment and Finance Committee of the Board of Directors to oversee our investment portfolio, including our unconsolidated subsidiaries, approve investment strategies, monitor our investment performance, and oversee other capital matters. The U.S. companies included in the consolidated financial statements, or the U.S. Portfolio, held cash and cash equivalents and investments of $2.4 billion as of December 31, 2006. We manage the fixed income portion of the U.S. Portfolio internally. The 4.8% of the U.S. Portfolio invested in common stock of publicly-traded corporations is managed by Mt. Eden Investment Advisors.

 

We manage the U.S. Portfolio to achieve the goals of providing a predictable, high level of investment income, while maintaining adequate levels of liquidity, safety and preservation of capital. Growth of capital and surplus through long-term market appreciation are a secondary consideration. Realization of taxable capital gains is minimized and emphasis is given to credit quality, price volatility and diversification, for each investment category as well as for the portfolio as a whole. As of December 31, 2006, based on market value and excluding cash and cash equivalents, approximately 81.8% of the U.S. Portfolio was invested in fixed income securities and approximately 18.1% was invested in equity securities. 96.8% of the fixed income investments were rated “A” or better by at least one nationally recognized securities rating organization, and of those, 68.9% were rated “AAA,” 19.4% were rated “AA,” and 8.5% were rated “A.” The U.S. Portfolio’s fixed income portfolio’s option-adjusted duration, including cash and cash equivalents, was 4.8 as of December 31, 2006. We generally do not invest in mortgage backed securities.

 

Investments held by The PMI Group’s U.S. insurance subsidiaries are subject to the insurer investment laws of each of the states in which they are licensed. These statutes, designed to preserve insurer assets for the protection of policyholders, set limits on the percentage of assets that an insurer can hold in certain investment categories (e.g., under Arizona law, no more than 20% in equity securities) and with a single issuer (e.g., 10% under Arizona law).

 

PMI Australia’s, PMI Europe’s and PMI Asia’s investments are subject to the investment policies adopted by their respective boards of directors and are managed by investment advisory firms under separate investment management agreements. We regularly review these entities’ investment strategies and performances. The investment policies specify that the portfolios must be invested predominantly in intermediate-term and high-grade bonds.

 

As of December 31, 2006, PMI Australia had $105.0 million in cash and cash equivalents and $966.3 million of investments which are managed by Deutsche Asset Management (Australia) Limited. The investment portfolio consists mainly of high-grade Australian currency-denominated fixed income securities issued by sovereign, semi-government and corporate entities. At December 31, 2006, the portfolio’s option-adjusted duration, including cash and cash equivalents, was 3.7. The entire Australian bond portfolio is investment grade rated. The portfolio also contains a small allocation of investments in Australian equity securities.

 

As of December 31, 2006, PMI Europe had $23.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and $191.7 million of investments which are managed by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited. The investment portfolio consists of Euro and British Pounds Sterling currency-denominated fixed income securities issued by sovereign, agency and corporate entities. The portfolio’s option-adjusted duration, including cash and cash equivalents, was 4.7 at December 31, 2006. PMI Europe’s portfolio did not contain investments in equity securities as of December 31, 2006.

 

As of December 31, 2006, PMI Asia had $3.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and $58.9 million of investments which are managed by Deutsche Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited. The investment portfolio consists of Hong Kong dollar denominated fixed income securities issued by sovereign, agency and corporate

 

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entities. The portfolio’s option-adjusted duration, including cash and cash equivalents, was 3.4 at December 31, 2006. PMI Asia’s portfolio did not contain investments in equity securities as of December 31, 2006.

 

We review the investment portfolios and strategies of our unconsolidated subsidiaries on a quarterly basis. Through our representation on their boards of directors, we have a limited ability to influence their investment management decisions.

 

F.   Employees

 

As of December 31, 2006, The PMI Group, together with its wholly-owned subsidiaries and CMG MI, had approximately 1,000 full-time and part-time employees, of which 720 persons performed services primarily for PMI, 226 were employed by PMI Australia, 23 were employed by PMI Europe, 5 were employed by PMI Asia, 24 performed services primarily for CMG MI and 4 for PMI Guaranty. Our employees are not unionized and we consider our employee relations to be good. In addition, MSC had 179 temporary workers and contract underwriters as of December 31, 2006.

 

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS

 

If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines or if the number of mortgage loans originated and purchased by the GSEs continues to decline, the amount of insurance that PMI writes could decrease, which could result in a decrease of our future revenue.

 

A decline in the volume of low down payment mortgage originations could reduce the demand for private mortgage insurance and consequently, our revenues. The volume of low down payment mortgage originations is affected by, among other factors: the level of home mortgage interest rates; domestic economy and regional economic conditions; consumer confidence; housing affordability; the rate of household formation; the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing affects whether refinance loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance; and government housing policy. The GSEs are principal beneficiaries of PMI’s flow mortgage insurance policies and the decline in the number of low down payment mortgage loans originated and purchased by the GSEs has adversely affected our revenues from this channel. The GSEs lost market share in 2005 and 2006 due in part to higher percentages of less-than-A loans, adjustable rate mortgages, which we refer to as ARMs, and reduced documentation loans originated in 2005 and 2006. Such loans are generally either retained by loan originators and not sold to the GSEs or are placed in mortgage-backed securities that are privately issued and not guaranteed by the GSEs.

 

If interest rates decline, home values increase or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements change, the length of time that PMI’s policies remain in force and our revenues could decline.

 

A significant percentage of the premiums PMI earns each year is generated from insurance policies written in previous years. As a result, a decrease in the length of time that PMI’s policies remain in force could cause our revenues to decline. Factors that lead to borrowers canceling their mortgage insurance include: current mortgage interest rates falling below the rates on the mortgages underlying insurance in force, which frequently results in borrowers refinancing their mortgages; appreciation in the values of the homes underlying the mortgages we insure; and the availability of alternative loan products, which provide borrowers with the opportunity to at least temporarily decrease their monthly loan payments.

 

If mortgage lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance, such as piggyback loans, the amount of insurance that we write could decline, which could reduce our revenues and profits.

 

In the U.S., mortgage lenders have been increasingly structuring mortgage originations to avoid private mortgage insurance, primarily through the use of simultaneous seconds, piggybacks, 80/10/10s, 80/15/5s or 80/20 loans. Such mortgages are structured to include a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage with a loan-to-value ratio ranging from 5% to 20%. Over the past several years, the volume of

 

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these loans, or variations thereof, as alternatives to loans requiring mortgage insurance has increased significantly and may continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

 

Other alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:

 

   

government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the FHA and the VA;

 

   

member institutions providing credit enhancement on loans sold to a FHLB;

 

   

lenders and investors holding mortgages in their portfolios and self-insuring;

 

   

mortgage lenders maintaining lender recourse or participation with respect to loans sold to the GSEs; and

 

   

investors using internal credit enhancements, such as credit default or interest rate swaps, over collateralization and subordination, as partial or complete substitutes to private mortgage insurance in mortgage backed securitizations.

 

These alternatives, or new alternatives to private mortgage insurance that may develop, could reduce the demand for private mortgage insurance and cause our revenues and profitability to decline.

 

Although the FHLBs are not required to purchase insurance for mortgage loans, they currently use mortgage insurance on substantially all mortgage loans with a loan-to-value ratio above 80%. If the FHLBs were to purchase uninsured mortgage loans or increase the loan-to-value ratio threshold above which they require mortgage insurance, the market for mortgage insurance could decrease and we could be adversely affected.

 

The risk-based capital rule applicable to the GSEs may allow large financial entities such as banks, financial guarantors, insurance companies, and brokerage firms to provide or arrange for products that may efficiently substitute for some of the capital relief provided to the GSEs by private mortgage insurance. Our consolidated financial condition and results of operations could be harmed if the GSEs were to use these products in lieu of mortgage insurance.

 

We reinsure a portion of our mortgage insurance default risk with lender-affiliated captive reinsurance companies, which reduces our net premiums written and earned.

 

Mortgage insurers including PMI offer products to lenders that are designed to allow them to participate in the risks and rewards of the mortgage insurance business. Many of the major mortgage lenders have established affiliated captive reinsurance companies. These captive reinsurance companies assume a portion of the risks associated with the lender’s insured mortgage loans in exchange for a percentage of the associated gross premiums. An increasing percentage of PMI’s primary flow insurance in force has been generated by customers with captive reinsurance companies. Because a number of our major customers have made the business decision to participate in the mortgage insurance business by establishing reinsurance companies, we believe that if we did not offer captive reinsurance agreements, our competitive position would suffer. Captive reinsurance agreements negatively impact our net premiums written and earned.

 

Economic factors have adversely affected and may continue to adversely affect PMI’s loss experience.

 

PMI’s loss experience has increased over the past year and could continue to increase in the year(s) to come as a result of: national or regional economic recessions and downturns; declining values of homes; higher unemployment rates; higher levels of consumer credit; deteriorating borrower credit; interest rate volatility; war or terrorist activity; adverse weather events; or other econ