10-K 1 d10k.htm FORM 10-K Form 10-K

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-K

(Mark One)

x ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2005

 

¨ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the transition period from                  to                 

Commission file number 1-10777

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)

 

Delaware

(State of incorporation)

 

13-3621676

(I.R.S. employer identification no.)

One State Street Plaza

New York, New York

(Address of principal executive offices)

 

10004

(Zip code)

(212) 668-0340

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

 

Title of each class   Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, $0.01 per share   New York Stock Exchange, Inc.
5.875% Debentures, Due March 24, 2103   New York Stock Exchange, Inc.
5.95% Debentures, Due February 28, 2103   New York Stock Exchange, Inc.
7% Debentures Due October 17, 2051   New York Stock Exchange, Inc.

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act: None

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act. Yes x    No ¨

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Act. Yes ¨    No x

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant: (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the Registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes x    No ¨

Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and will not be contained, to the best of Registrant’s knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K.¨

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, or a non-accelerated filer. See definition of “accelerated filer and large accelerated filer” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. (Check one):

Large Accelerated Filer x    Accelerated filer ¨    Non-accelerated filer ¨

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Act). Yes ¨    No x

The aggregate market value of voting stock held by non-affiliates of the Registrant as of the close of business on June 30, 2005 was $7,449,006,913 (based upon the closing price of the Registrant’s shares of the New York Stock Exchange on that date, which was $69.76). For purposes of this information, the outstanding shares of Common Stock which were owned by all directors and executive officers of the Registrant were deemed to be shares of Common Stock held by affiliates.

As of March 6, 2006, 105,524,792 shares of Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, (net of 3,668,304 treasury shares) were outstanding.

Documents Incorporated By Reference

Portions of Ambac Financial Corp., Inc.’s Proxy Statement for its 2006 Annual Meeting of Stockholders scheduled to be held on May 2, 2006 are incorporated by reference into the Annual Report on Form 10-K in response to Part III, Items 10, 11, 12 and 14.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

          Page

PART I

     

Item 1.

   Business   
  

Introduction

   1
  

Cautionary Statement Pursuant to the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995

   2
  

Business Segments

   3
  

Employees

   27
  

Corporate Governance

   27

Item 1A.

   Risk Factors    28

Item 1B.

   Unresolved Staff Comments    32

Item 2.

   Properties    33

Item 3.

   Legal Proceedings    33

Item 4.

   Submission of Matters to a
Vote of Security Holders
   33

PART II

     

Item 5.

   Market for Registrant’s Common
Equity and Related Stockholder Matters
   33

Item 6.

   Selected Financial Data    35

Item 7.

   Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial
Condition and Results of Operations
   35

Item 7A.

   Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures
About Market Risk
   68

Item 8.

   Financial Statements and Supplementary Data    72

Item 9.

   Changes in and Disagreements With Accountants on
Accounting and Financial Disclosure
   126

Item 9A.

   Controls and Procedures    126

Item 9B.

   Other Information    126

PART III

     

Item 10.

   Directors and Executive Officers
of the Registrant
   126

Item 11.

   Executive Compensation    127

Item 12.

   Security Ownership of Certain
Beneficial Owners and Management
   127

Item 13.

   Certain Relationships and
Related Transactions
   127

Item 14.

   Principal Accountant Fees and Services    127

PART IV

     

Item 15.

   Exhibits, Financial Statement
Schedules, and Reports on Form 8-K
   127

SIGNATURES

      134

FINANCIAL STATEMENT SCHEDULES

   S-1


Part I

 

Item 1. Business.

INTRODUCTION

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac Financial Group was incorporated on April 29, 1991. Ambac Financial Group provides financial guarantees for public finance and structured finance obligations through its principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation. Through its financial services subsidiaries, Ambac Financial Group provides financial and investment products including investment agreements, funding conduits, interest rate, currency and total return swaps, principally to its clients of the financial guarantee business. Information about Ambac Financial Group is available through our website at www.ambac.com. In addition, our press releases and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) are available free of charge on the investor relations portion of our website.

Ambac Assurance and its subsidiary Ambac Assurance UK Limited, which serve the global capital markets, are primarily engaged in guaranteeing public finance and structured finance obligations. Ambac Assurance is the successor to the founding financial guarantee insurance company, which wrote the first bond insurance policy in 1971. Financial guarantee insurance policies written by Ambac Assurance generally guarantee payment when due of the principal and interest on the guaranteed obligation. Ambac Assurance seeks to minimize the risk inherent in its financial guarantee portfolio by maintaining a diverse portfolio which spreads its risk across a number of criteria, including issue size, type of obligation, geographic area and obligor.

Ambac Assurance has earned triple-A ratings, the highest ratings available from Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (“Moody’s”), Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (“S&P”), Fitch, Inc. (“Fitch”) and Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (“R&I”). These ratings are an essential part of Ambac Assurance’s ability to provide credit enhancement and any reduction in these ratings could have a material adverse affect on Ambac Assurance’s ability to compete in the financial guarantee business. See “Rating Agencies” section below for further information.

Ambac Credit Products LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Ambac Assurance, provides credit protection in the global markets in the form of structured credit derivatives. These structured credit derivatives, which are privately negotiated contracts, provide the counterparty with credit protection against the occurrence of a specific event such as a payment default or bankruptcy relating to an underlying obligation. Upon a credit event, Ambac Credit Products is required to either (i) purchase the underlying obligation at its par value and a loss is realized for the difference between the par and market value of the underlying obligation, (ii) make a payment equivalent to the difference between the par value and market value of the underlying obligation or (iii) make payments for the difference between the scheduled debt service payment due and the actual payment made by the issuer. Substantially all of Ambac’s structured credit derivative contracts relate to senior tranches of structured finance transactions and are partially hedged with various financial institutions or structured with first loss protection. Structured credit derivatives issued by Ambac Credit Products are insured by Ambac

 

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Assurance. See “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” located in Part II, Item 7A for further information about structured credit derivatives.

In addition to the guarantees on fixed income obligations described above, Ambac, from time to time, enters into transactions that expose the company to risks which may not be correlated to credit risk, for example weather-related or other disasters, mortality or other property and casualty type risk characteristics. Ambac underwrites such risks so that first loss must occur before Ambac would become liable in respect of such risks. Additionally, Ambac underwrites such business primarily in relation to broad indices and reference pools which embody diverse risk characteristics.

Ambac Financial Group’s investment agreement business, conducted through its subsidiary, Ambac Capital Funding, Inc., provides investment agreements primarily to municipalities and other public entities, issuers of structured finance obligations and international issuers. Investment agreements issued by Ambac Capital Funding are insured by Ambac Assurance. Investment agreements are primarily used by issuers to invest bond proceeds until the proceeds can be used for their intended purpose. See “Investment Agreement” section below for further information.

Ambac Financial Group provides interest rate and currency swaps through its subsidiary Ambac Financial Services, LLC, primarily to states, municipalities and their authorities, issuers of asset-backed securities and other entities in connection with their financings. Ambac Financial Group also enters into total return swaps with professional counterparties through its subsidiary Ambac Capital Services LLC. Total return swaps are generally used for fixed income obligations, which meet Ambac Assurance’s credit underwriting criteria. See “Derivative Products” section below for further information.

As a holding company, Ambac Financial Group is largely dependent on dividends from Ambac Assurance to pay dividends on its capital stock, to pay principal and interest on its indebtedness, to pay its operating expenses, to purchase its common stock in the open market and to make capital investments in its subsidiaries. Dividends from Ambac Assurance are subject to certain insurance regulatory restrictions. See “Insurance Regulatory Matters—Wisconsin Dividend Restrictions” section and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis—Liquidity and Capital Resources” located in Part II, Item 7 for further information.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT PURSUANT TO THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995

Materials in this Annual Report on Form 10-K may contain information that includes or is based upon forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts but instead represent management’s belief regarding future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside our control. You can identify these statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and relate to future plan or objectives and results.

Any or all of management’s forward-looking statements here or in other publications may turn out to be wrong and are based on current expectations and the current economic environment. Ambac Financial Group’s actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about the performance of Ambac Financial Group’s securities. Among factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are: (1) changes in the economic, credit, or interest rate environment in the United

 

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States and abroad; (2) the level of activity within the national and worldwide debt markets; (3) competitive conditions and pricing levels; (4) legislative and regulatory developments; (5) changes in tax laws; (6) the policies and actions of the United States and other governments; (7) changes in capital requirements or other criteria of rating agencies; (8) changes in accounting principles or practices that may impact Ambac Financial Group’s reported financial results; (9) the amount of reserves established for losses and loss expenses; (10) default of one or more of Ambac Assurance’s reinsurers; (11) market spreads and pricing on insured pooled debt obligations and other derivative products insured or issued by Ambac Financial Group; (12) prepayment speeds on insured asset-backed securities and other factors that may influence the amount of installment premiums paid to Ambac Assurance; and (13) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time. Ambac Financial Group is not obligated to publicly correct or update any forward-looking statement if we later become aware that it is not likely to be achieved, except as required by law. You are advised, however, to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects in Ambac Financial Group’s reports to the SEC.

BUSINESS SEGMENTS

The following paragraphs describe the business operations of Ambac Financial Group and its subsidiaries for its two reportable segments: Financial Guarantee and Financial Services.

Financial Guarantee

The financial guarantee segment includes financial guarantee insurance and other credit enhancement products, such as credit derivatives. Financial guarantee insurance provides an unconditioned guarantee that protects the holder of a financial obligation against non-payment of principal and interest when due. Financial guarantee insurance is a form of credit enhancement that benefits both the issuer and the investor. Issuers benefit because their insured securities are sold with the highest available credit rating, resulting in interest cost savings and greater marketability. In addition, for complex financings and obligations of issuers that are not well known by investors, credit enhanced obligations receive greater market acceptance than obligations without credit enhancement. Investors benefit from greater marketability, secondary market price stability, active credit surveillance and protection from loss associated with issuer default. Financial guarantee products are sold in three principal markets: the U.S. public finance market, the U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market and the international finance market.

In certain floating rate insured transactions, the issuer of insured securities is party to an interest rate swap that hedges their risk to interest rates effectively creating a synthetic fixed rate obligation. In such transactions, Ambac Assurance has, from time-to-time, insured the issuer’s obligations under both the insured securities and the derivative contract.

As an alternative to financial guarantee insurance, credit protection relating to a particular security or issuer can be provided through a credit derivative, such as a credit default swap. Under the terms of a credit default swap, the seller of credit protection makes a specified payment(s) to the buyer of credit protection upon the occurrence of one or more specified credit events with respect to a referenced obligation or entity.

Ambac Assurance guarantees obligations already carrying insurance from other monoline guarantors, with Ambac Assurance generally obligated to pay claims only upon a default by both the underlying obligor and the original financial guarantor.

 

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Ambac Financial Group derives financial guarantee revenues from: (i) premiums earned from insurance contracts; (ii) net investment income; (iii) revenue from credit derivative transactions; (iv) net realized gains and losses from sales of investment securities; and (v) certain structuring and other fees. Financial guarantee revenues were $1,324.5 million, $1,168.7 million, and $1,033.6 million in 2005, 2004, and 2003, respectively. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” located in Part II, Item 7 and Note 18 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

Pricing:

Ambac Assurance determines premium rates on the basis of the type of transaction and its assessment of the risk it is guaranteeing. Factors considered in pricing include term to maturity, structure of the issue and credit and market factors including security features and other credit enhancement features. Additionally, the interest rate spread between insured and uninsured obligations with characteristics similar to those of the proposed bond issue is considered in the pricing process as well as the cost and the projected return to Ambac Assurance. The premium rate for a new issue also takes into account the benefits to be obtained by the issuer.

Overall, the business environment has become more competitive. Competition arises from both other insurers as well as other transaction execution (e.g. senior/subordinate structure). This increased competition has had a moderately adverse impact on pricing. See “Competition” section below for further information.

U. S. Public Finance Market

The U.S. public finance market includes taxable and tax-exempt bonds, notes and other evidences of indebtedness issued primarily by states, political subdivisions (e.g., cities, counties and towns), water, sewer, electric and other utility districts, airports, higher educational institutions, hospitals, transportation and housing authorities. Public finance obligations are generally supported by either the taxing authority of the issuer or the issuer’s or underlying obligor’s ability to collect fees or assessments for certain projects or public services. Although Ambac Assurance guarantees the full range of Public Finance obligations, Ambac Assurance concentrates on those projects that require more structuring skills. Certain projects, which had been financed by the local or U.S. government alone, are now being financed through public-private partnerships. In these transactions, debt service on the bonds, rather than being paid solely by tax revenues or other governmental funds, is being paid from a variety of revenue sources, including revenues derived from the project itself. Examples of these transactions include stadium financings, student housing and military housing. Included in transportation obligations is exposure to U.S. airports. Airport obligations are generally supported by (i) terminal lease revenues, parking and other concession revenues; (ii) passenger facility charges; or (iii) payments in respect of specific airport facilities. The following table sets forth the volume of new issues of long-term (longer than 12 months) public finance bonds and the volume of new issues of insured long-term public finance bonds over the past ten years in the United States.

 

4


U.S. Public Finance Long-Term Market

 

($ in Billions)   

New

Money

   Refundings   

Total

Volume

  

Refundings

as Percentage

of Total Volume

  

Insured

Volume

  

Insured Bonds

as Percentage

of Total Volume

      

1996

   139.1    45.9    185.0    24.8    85.7    46.3

1997

   160.3    60.2    220.5    27.3    107.5    48.8

1998

   204.7    82.0    286.7    28.6    145.5    50.7

1999

   189.3    38.3    227.6    16.8    105.6    46.4

2000

   181.3    19.5    200.8    9.7    79.3    39.5

2001

   223.5    64.7    288.2    22.4    134.4    46.6

2002

   266.7    92.1    358.8    25.7    178.9    49.9

2003

   288.7    95.0    383.7    24.8    190.7    49.7

2004

   271.7    88.4    360.1    24.5    192.7    53.5

2005

   275.9    130.2    406.1    32.1    228.4    56.2

 

Source: Amounts, except for 2005, are reported by The Bond Buyer’s 2005 Yearbook. The 2005 amounts are Ambac Assurance estimates, compiled from Securities Data Company, Inc. and the Bond Buyer. Amounts represent gross par amounts issued or insured, respectively, during such year.

The foregoing table illustrates the changes in the total volume and insured volume of new issues of public finance bonds over the past ten years. Changes in volume of public finance bond issuance during this period are primarily attributable to changes in refunding activity related to the then-current interest rate environment, along with the issuers’ new money requirements. Volume since 2002 has exceeded historical levels as a result of the low interest rate environment and considerable infrastructure finance needs. Insured volume as a percentage of total volume (“insured penetration”), which had grown consistently from 1996 through 1998, declined during 1999 and 2000. The decline during 2000 is generally considered to have resulted from the combination of the relatively high credit quality of issues that came to market during the period and the firmness in premium pricing in the industry. During 2001 through 2005, the insured penetration has increased, largely the result of budget deficits experienced by municipalities and the corresponding flight to quality by investors.

In the U.S. public finance market, an issuer typically pays an up-front premium to Ambac Assurance at the time the policy is issued. Premiums are usually quoted as a percentage of the total amount of principal and interest that is scheduled to become due during the life of the insured bonds.

Proposed new public finance bond issues are submitted to Ambac Assurance by issuers (or their investment bankers or financial advisors) to determine their suitability for financial insurance. Public finance bond issues are sold on either a competitive or a negotiated basis. With respect to competitive issues, an issuer will publish a notice of sale soliciting bids for the purchase of a proposed issue of bonds. Potential bidders on the bonds then form syndicates. These syndicates then solicit a determination from some or all of the financial guarantors whether an issue is suitable for financial guarantee and at what premium rate and on what terms. The syndicate then determines whether to bid on the issue with a financial guarantee (and if so, with which financial guarantor) or without a financial guarantee. The issuer then generally selects the syndicate with the lowest bid. In a negotiated offering, the issuer has already selected an investment bank and that investment bank solicits premium quotes and terms from the financial guarantors.

 

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Ambac Assurance also provides financial guarantees on public finance bonds outstanding in the secondary market that are typically purchased by an institution to hedge or facilitate the sale of bonds in its portfolio or inventory. The financial guarantee generally increases the sale price of bonds (typically by an amount greater than the cost of the policy) and affords a wider secondary market and therefore greater marketability to a given issue of previously issued bonds. As is the case with new issues, the premium is generally payable in full at the time of policy issuance. Ambac Assurance employs the same underwriting standards on secondary market issues that it does on new public finance issues.

Ambac Assurance guaranteed gross par of $53.8 billion, $44.6 billion and $43.0 billion in 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively, in the U.S. public finance market. Public Finance new business guaranteed represented 43%, 38% and 37% of total gross par guaranteed for 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” located in Part II, Item 7 for further information.

The table below shows our ten largest Public Finance exposures, by repayment source, as a percentage of total Financial Guarantee net par outstanding at December 31, 2005:

 

(Dollars in Millions)

   Ambac
Ratings (1)
    Net Par
Outstanding
   % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding

California State—GO

   A     $ 2,136    0.4%

California Department of Water Resources, Power Supply

   A       1,694    0.4%

MTA, NY, Transportation Revenue (Farebox)

   A       1,684    0.4%

NYS Thruway Authority, Highway & Bridge Revenue

   AA -     1,464    0.3%

New Jersey Turnpike Authority Revenue

   A       1,379    0.3%

New York City, NY—GO

   A +     1,322    0.3%

Washington State—GO

   AA       1,289    0.3%

New Jersey Economic Development Authority—School Facilities Construction

   A +     1,137    0.2%

New Jersey Transportation Trust Fund Authority—Transportation System

   A +     1,122    0.2%

South Carolina Transportation Infrastructure Bank Revenue

   A -     1,092    0.2%
             

Total

     $ 14,319    3.0%
             

 

(1) Internal Ambac credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac Assurance. They are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. Ambac Assurance, or one of its affiliates, has insured the obligations listed and may also provide other products or services to the issuers of these obligations for which Ambac may have received premiums or fees.

U.S. Structured Finance and Asset-backed Market

Financial guarantees of securities in the U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market are typically issued in connection with transactions in which the securities being issued are secured by or payable from a specific pool of financial or cash flow generating assets. This pool of assets has an identifiable cash flow or market value and is generally held by a special purpose entity. Structured finance and asset-backed obligations insured by Ambac Assurance generally have the benefit of over-collateralization and/or other forms of credit enhancement to mitigate credit risks associated with the related assets. These forms of credit enhancement are designed to absorb the expected losses in these transactions.

 

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Structured finance obligations include the securitization of a variety of asset types such as mortgages, home equity loans, auto loans, student loans, credit card debt, leases, commercial asset-backed securities and pooled debt obligations originated in the United States (“Structured Finance”). Included within the commercial asset-backed sector are securitizations of operating assets, including aircraft, rental car fleets, and rail cars, as well as film and publishing royalties.

Structured finance includes credit enhancement for asset-backed commercial paper conduits (“conduits”). Conduits are used by issuers to efficiently fund assets in the short-term commercial paper market. Typically sponsored by financial institutions, the conduits usually purchase financial assets and asset-backed securities, and issue commercial paper to fund the purchase of the assets. The typical conduit structure provides Ambac with significant credit protection prior to a claim on Ambac’s insurance policy. A conduit requires program-wide credit enhancement as one of several elements needed to support the conduit’s credit rating for the structure, of which Ambac provides a senior portion.

Structured Finance also includes the credit enhancement of pooled debt obligations, including structured credit derivatives. These transactions involve the securitization of a diverse portfolio of corporate bonds and loan obligations and asset-backed securities (the “Securitized Assets”). The transaction structure provides certain financial protection to Ambac Assurance. This financial protection can take several forms, however, the most common are over-collateralization, first loss and excess spread. In the case of over-collateralization (e.g., the principal amount of the Securitized Assets exceeds the principal amount of the structured finance obligations guaranteed by Ambac Assurance), the structure allows the transaction to experience defaults among the Securitized Assets before a default is experienced on the structured finance obligations that have been guaranteed by Ambac Assurance. In the case of first loss, the financial guarantee insurance policy only covers a senior layer of losses. A subordinated layer of losses is either retained by the seller or sold off in the form of equity and mezzanine debt to other investors. In the case of excess spread, the financial assets generate cash flow in the form of interest that is in excess of the interest payments on the related debt.

Unlike the public finance market in which a substantial portion of the deals is bid competitively by the financial guarantors, the structured and asset-backed market is often a negotiated one. The financial guarantor will work directly with the investment bank or client to create an acceptable structure once having been awarded the business.

The U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market in which Ambac Assurance provides financial guarantees is broad and varied, comprising public issues and private placements. The increasing array of classes of assets securitized or guaranteed, and the ongoing rapid changes to the market, makes estimating the aggregate size of the market that we participate in difficult.

Premiums for structured finance and asset-backed policies are typically based on a percentage of principal insured. Structured finance and asset-backed premiums can be collected in a single payment at policy inception date or collected periodically (e.g., monthly, quarterly or annually) from the cash flow generated by the underlying assets.

Ambac Assurance guaranteed gross par of $58.8 billion, $53.4 billion and $50.2 billion in 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively, in the U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market. U. S. Structured Finance new business guaranteed represents 47%, 45% and 44% of total gross par guaranteed for 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” located in Part II, Item 7 for further discussion.

 

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The table below shows our ten largest Structured Finance transactions, as a percentage of total financial guarantee net par outstanding at December 31, 2005:

 

($ in Millions)

  

Ambac

Rating (1)

   

Net Par

Outstanding

  

% of Total

Net Par

Outstanding

Private Structured Finance Pool

   AA     $ 2,767    0.6%

Countrywide Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust 2005—F

   BBB +     2,499    0.5%

Cendant Rental Car Funding

   BBB       2,415    0.5%

Iowa Student Loan Liquidity Corporation Revenue Bonds

   A       1,900    0.4%

Hertz Vehicle Financing, LLC Series 2005-2

   BBB       1,847    0.4%

Michigan Higher Education Student Loan Authority

   AA       1,759    0.4%

Private Structured Finance Pool

   AAA       1,644    0.3%

Vermont Student Assistance Corporation Revenue Bonds

   A       1,596    0.3%

ARG Rental Car Funding Corporation

   BBB       1,384    0.3%

Synthetic RMBS

   AAA       1,375    0.3%
             

Total

     $ 19,186    4.0%
             

 

(1) Internal Ambac credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac Assurance. They are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. Ambac Assurance, or one of its affiliates, has insured the obligations listed and may also provide other products or services to the issuers of these obligations for which Ambac may have received premiums or fees.

International Finance Market

Outside of the United States, structured finance and asset-backed issuers, utilities, sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers, and other issuers have used financial guarantee products, particularly in markets throughout Western Europe. In the United Kingdom, ongoing privatization efforts have shifted certain risks associated with the development or operation of infrastructure projects from the government to market participants, thus prompting investors in such projects to seek the security of financial guarantee products. These privatization efforts are currently being initiated in most other European countries as well. In Western Europe and the emerging markets, interest in asset-backed securitization is expanding.

While the principles of securitization have been increasingly applied in overseas markets, development in particular countries has varied as a result of the relative sophistication of the local capital markets and the impact of legal and financial regulatory requirements. It is anticipated that securitization will continue to expand internationally, albeit at varying rates in each country. Ambac Assurance UK Limited, insures a wide array of obligations in the international markets including infrastructure financings, asset-securitizations, pooled debt obligations (including structured credit derivatives), utility obligations, whole company securitizations (e.g. securitizations of substantially all of the operating assets of a corporation) and other obligations.

Ambac Assurance’s strategy in the international markets is to strengthen its franchise in developed markets by focusing on high quality infrastructure, structured finance, securitization, and utility finance transactions, and in emerging markets by focusing on top tier future flow transactions (structured transactions secured by U.S. Dollar cash flows generated from exports or payment remittances) and pooled debt obligations.

Ambac UK, which is authorized and regulated in the United Kingdom to provide certain classes of general financial guarantees (and is also authorized to conduct business throughout much of the

 

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European Union), has been Ambac Assurance’s primary vehicle for directly issuing financial guarantee policies in the United Kingdom and the European Union. In February 2005, Ambac UK established a branch office in Milan, Italy. Ambac UK has entered into net worth maintenance and reinsurance agreements with Ambac Assurance, which support its triple-A ratings.

Ambac Assurance is party to an alliance in Japan with Sompo Japan Insurance Inc. (“Sompo Japan”). Although the development of the Japanese securitization market has been slow, we believe that this alliance is competitively positioned for future growth.

While there is evidence that the volume of international structured finance transactions has increased in the recent past, unlike the U.S. public finance and domestic asset-backed markets, there are few statistics that effectively track aggregate volumes in the global markets. There are several reasons for this, including the small relative size of individual markets, different currencies, the varied nature of the deals coming to market, the early stages of development of certain asset classes and the fact that many international deals are privately placed.

Premiums for international finance policies are based on a percentage of either principal or principal and interest insured. The timing of the collection of international finance premiums varies among individual transactions; some are collected in a single payment at policy inception date and others are collected periodically (e.g., monthly, quarterly or annually).

Ambac Assurance guaranteed gross par of $12.7 billion, $20.1 billion and $22.1 billion in 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively, in the international market. International Finance new business guaranteed represented 10%, 17% and 19% of total gross par guaranteed for 2005, 2004 and 2003 respectively. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” located in Part II, Item 7 for further discussion.

The table below shows our ten largest International Finance transactions as a percentage of total financial guarantee net par outstanding at December 31, 2005:

 

($ in Millions)

  

Ambac

Rating(1)

  

Net Par

Outstanding

   % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding
 

Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate Pool

   AAA    $ 2,415    0.5 %

Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate Pool

   AA-      2,127    0.4  

RMAC Mortgage Services Limited 2004-NSP2

   A-      2,089    0.4  

Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate Pool

   AAA      2,015    0.4  

Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate Pool

   AAA      1,577    0.3  

Mitchells & Butlers Finance plc-UK Pub Securitisation

   A      1,468    0.3  

Synthetic RMBS

   AAA      1,203    0.3  

Telereal Securitisation plc

   AA      1,139    0.2  

Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate Pool

   AAA      1,118    0.2  

Synthetic RMBS

   AAA      1,095    0.2  
                

Total

      $ 16,246    3.2 %
                
(1) Internal Ambac credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac Assurance. They are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. Ambac Assurance, or one of its affiliates, has insured the obligations listed and may also provide other products or services to the issuers of these obligations for which Ambac may have received premiums or fees.

 

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Risk Management

Ambac Financial Group has a Portfolio Risk Management Committee (“PRMC”) which has established various procedures and controls to monitor and manage credit risk. The PRMC consists of senior risk management professionals and senior management of Ambac Financial Group. Its purview is enterprise-wide and its focus is on risk limits and measurement, concentration and correlation of risk, and the attribution of economic and regulatory capital in a portfolio context.

Ambac Financial Group has a Transaction Standards Committee which evaluates the suitability of transactions and products for Ambac participation with particular emphasis on potential legal, accounting, regulatory and/or reputation risks.

Underwriting guidelines, policies and procedures have been developed by Ambac Assurance’s management with the intent that Ambac Assurance guarantees only those obligations which, in the opinion of Ambac Assurance underwriting officers, are of investment grade quality with a remote risk of loss. However, losses may occur and it is Ambac Assurance’s policy to provide for loss reserves on non-derivative insurance policies that are adequate to cover probable and estimable losses. For derivative insurance policies and structured credit derivatives, changes in fair value are reflected currently in net income. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and Note 2 and Note 6 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, located in Part II, Items 7 and 8, respectively, for further information.

The underwriting process involves review of structural, legal, political and credit issues, including compliance with current Ambac Assurance underwriting standards. These standards are reviewed periodically by management. Additionally, the underwriting process often entails on-site due diligence covering the parties to the transaction, such as the issuer, originator, servicer or manager.

The decision to guarantee an issue is based upon such credit factors as the issuer’s ability to repay the bonds, the bond’s security features and the bond’s structure, rather than upon an actuarial prediction of the likelihood that the issuer will default on the underlying debt obligation.

Members of Ambac Assurance’s underwriting staff review all requests for guarantees. The underwriting process is designed to screen issues and begins with a credit analysis by the primary analyst assigned to the issue. The credit is then reviewed within the primary analyst’s underwriting group. At a minimum, the primary analyst’s recommendation to qualify or reject an issue must be approved by a concurring analyst and a credit officer. The number of additional approvals required for a particular credit depends in part on Ambac Assurance’s aggregate exposure to the credit. In some cases, the complexity of the credit or whether it is a new asset type are determining factors in the approval/review process. Ambac Assurance has three established credit committees comprised of senior credit officers, credit and market risk managers and attorneys. All large, complex or new types of credits recommended by the underwriting group, must be formally presented to the credit committee for approval. For certain issues, the primary analyst’s recommendation must be approved by a concurring analyst and credit officer and need not be formally presented to the credit committee for approval.

 

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Ambac Assurance assigns internal ratings to individual exposures as part of the underwriting process and at surveillance reviews. These internal ratings, which represent Ambac Assurance’s independent judgments, are based upon underlying credit parameters similar to those used by rating agencies.

Public Finance Underwriting:

In addition to general underwriting standards, each asset class, and bond type within each asset class, has more specific underwriting criteria. For example, the critical risk factors for public finance credits will include the credit quality of the issuer, type of issue, the repayment source, the type of security pledged, the presence of restrictive covenants, and the bond’s maturity. Each bond issue is evaluated in accordance with, and the final premium rate is a function of, the particular factors as they relate to such issue.

Underwriting criteria that are applied for each bond type reflect the differences in, for example, economic and social factors, debt management, project essentiality, financial management, legal and administrative factors, revenue sources and security features.

Structured Finance Underwriting:

Structured finance and asset-backed obligations generally entail three forms of risks: (i) asset risk, which relates to the amount and quality of the underlying assets; (ii) structural risk, which relates to the extent to which the transaction’s legal structure and credit support provides protection from loss; and (iii) servicer risk, which is the risk that poor performance at the servicer or manager level contributes to a decline in cash flow available to the transaction. Ambac Assurance addresses these risks through its credit underwriting guidelines, standards and procedures.

In general, the amount and quality of asset coverage required is determined by the historical performance of the underlying asset type or the transaction’s specific underlying assets. The future performance or value of the underlying pool of assets will generally determine whether the amount of over-collateralization or other credit enhancement ultimately is sufficient to protect investors, and therefore the guarantor, against adverse asset performance. The ability of the servicer or manager to properly service and/or manage the underlying assets often is a factor in determining future asset performance.

Structured and asset-backed securities are usually designed to protect the investors, and therefore the guarantor, from the bankruptcy or insolvency of the entity that originated the underlying assets as well as from the bankruptcy or insolvency of the servicer of those assets. The servicer of the assets is typically responsible for collecting cash payments on the underlying assets and forwarding such payments, net of servicing fees, to a trustee for the benefit of the issuer. Other issues include whether the sale of the assets by the originator to the issuer would be upheld in the event of the bankruptcy or insolvency of the originator and whether the servicer of the assets may be permitted or stayed from remitting to investors cash collections held by it or received by it after the servicer or the originator becomes subject to bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings.

Ambac manages servicer execution risk for its structured finance exposures in several ways. In connection with the initial decision to guarantee, Ambac Assurance analyzes the capitalization and credit quality, the experience and financial strength of the servicer of the underlying assets. Thereafter, Ambac monitors the performance of transaction servicers through a combination of (i) on-site servicer

 

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reviews; (ii) annual compliance certificates received from servicer management; (iii) independent rating agency information and (iv) a review of servicer financial information. On-site servicer reviews typically include a review of the collection, default management and quality control processes. Where appropriate, a third-party, such as an independent audit firm, may perform the review. In addition, Ambac may require a back-up servicer or require “term-to-term” servicing which provides for limited, renewable servicing terms in order to provide greater flexibility regarding the servicing arrangements of a particular transaction.

A significant portion of Ambac Assurance’s structured finance exposures relate to the mortgage-backed and home equity loan market and as such, Ambac Assurance seeks to work with high quality, well-capitalized issuers and servicers. The issuers typically originate or purchase residential mortgages, home equity loans or home equity lines of credit, which are in turn sold by the issuers in the form of asset-backed securities.

The following table presents the top five servicers by net par outstanding, for global structured finance exposures:

 

($ in Millions)

   Asset Class    Net Par
Outstanding

Servicer:

     

Countrywide Home Loans.

   Mortgage-backed    $ 16,100

RFC—Homecomings Financial

   Mortgage-backed      7,416

HomeLoan Management Ltd.

   Mortgage-backed      5,485

Nelnet

   Student loans      4,747

Chevy Chase Bank, F.S.B.

   Mortgage-backed      4,273

International Finance Underwriting:

In the international markets, Ambac Assurance seeks to guarantee transactions of the same high credit standards it applies in its U.S. business. However, an understanding of the unique risks related to the particular country and region that could impact the credit of the issuer is necessary. These risks include legal and political environments, capital market dynamics, foreign exchange issues, and the degree of governmental support. Ambac Assurance monitors these risks carefully and addresses them through its credit underwriting guidelines, (which include country limits), underwriting procedures and transaction documentation.

Geographically, the international markets that Ambac Assurance focuses on have been the United Kingdom, Australia, Italy, Japan, and certain emerging market countries. In addition, Ambac Assurance has guaranteed transactions in which the geographic risk is spread over multiple countries. The types of international obligations guaranteed have primarily been pooled debt obligations, mortgage and asset-backed securities, special revenue and infrastructure obligations. Management believes that the risk associated with its international book of business is similar to its domestic structured finance book of business. In fact, international transactions may include significant components of domestic exposure.

Surveillance and Remediation:

The Surveillance Group is responsible for monitoring outstanding financial guarantee exposures. Active surveillance enables Ambac Assurance’s Surveillance Group to track single credit migration or industry credit trends. Surveillance analysts review, on a regular and ad hoc basis, credits in the book of

 

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business. Risk-adjusted surveillance strategies have been developed for each transaction type. Review periods and scope of review vary by bond type based upon the risk inherent in the nature of the credits. The focus of the surveillance review is to determine credit trends and recommend appropriate classifications, ratings and review periods. The Surveillance Group also focuses on loss mitigation by recommending appropriate actions to minimize Ambac Assurance’s exposure to potential loss. Surveillance analysts and other credit professionals review the financial guarantee portfolio for concentrations of risk by (i) specific bond types; (ii) geographic location; and (iii) size of issue. The separate underwriting groups are also responsible for portfolio analysis which entails a broader examination of trends in specific asset classes and bond types.

Surveillance of the credit quality of underlying reference obligations in the structured credit derivatives portfolio is performed on a regular basis. Credit spreads, which act as a measure of the market’s perception of an issuer’s credit quality, are monitored to identify potential problems. In addition, published credit ratings and current news reports are monitored regularly.

Those issues that are either in default or have developed problems that eventually may lead to a claim or loss are tracked closely by the appropriate surveillance team and reported to management and Ambac Financial Group’s Board of Directors by preparation of an adversely classified credit listing. Relevant information, along with the schedule of corrective actions, is reviewed in the regular remedial credit meetings. Internal and/or external counsel generally reviews the documents underlying any problem credit and if applicable, an analysis is prepared outlining Ambac Assurance’s rights and potential remedies, the duties of all parties involved and recommendations for corrective actions. Ambac Assurance also meets with relevant parties to the transaction as necessary. In many instances, Ambac Assurance, under the terms of the documents governing the underlying obligation, has the ability, among other things, to direct that audits be performed with respect to servicer and trustee contractual responsibilities.

The rating agencies also review the credits underlying Ambac Assurance’s financial guarantees and, in most cases, advise Ambac Assurance of the credit rating each transaction would receive if it were not insured.

Financial Guarantees in Force

Ambac Assurance underwrites and prices financial guarantees on the assumption that the guarantee will remain in force until maturity of the underlying bonds. Ambac Assurance estimated that the average life of its guarantees on par in force at December 31, 2005 is 12 years. The 12 year average life is determined by applying a weighted average calculation, using the remaining years to expected maturity of each guaranteed bond, and weighting them on the basis of the remaining net par guaranteed. No assumptions are made for future refundings of guaranteed issues.

Ambac Assurance seeks to maintain a diversified financial guarantee portfolio designed to spread its risk based on a variety of criteria, including issue size, type of bond, geographic area and issuer.

As of December 31, 2005, the total net par amount of guaranteed bonds outstanding was $479.1 billion. See Note 15 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

 

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Types of Bonds

The table below shows the distribution by bond type of Ambac Assurance’s guaranteed portfolio as of December 31, 2005.

Guaranteed Portfolio by Bond Type

as of December 31, 2005 (1)

 

Bond Type

   Net Par
Amount
Outstanding
   % of Total
Net Par
Amount
Outstanding
 

($ In Millions)

     

U.S. Public Finance:

     

Lease and tax-backed revenue

   $ 82,589    17 %

General obligation

     57,982    12  

Utility revenue

     36,872    8  

Health care revenue

     27,143    6  

Transportation revenue

     23,718    5  

Higher education

     20,054    4  

Housing revenue

     10,152    2  

Other

     5,556    1  
             

Total U.S. Public Finance

     264,066    55  
             

U.S. Structured Finance:

     

Mortgage-backed and home equity

     49,457    10  

Asset-backed and conduits

     32,505    7  

Pooled debt obligations

     22,391    5  

Student loans

     16,538    4  

Investor-owned utilities

     16,398    3  

Other

     7,063    1  
             

Total U.S. Structured Finance

     144,352    30  
             

Total Domestic

     408,418    85  
             

International Finance (2):

     

Pooled debt obligations

     23,507    5  

Asset-backed and conduits

     15,355    3  

Mortgage-backed and home equity

     14,627    3  

Investor-owned and public utilities

     8,052    2  

Transportation revenue

     4,951    1  

Sovereign/sub-sovereign

     3,506    1  

Other

     669    0  
             

Total International Finance

     70,667    15  
             

Grand Total

   $ 479,085    100 %
             
(1) Includes $43,712 of structured credit derivatives at December 31, 2005.
(2) International Finance transactions includes significant components of domestic exposure.

Issue Size

Ambac Assurance seeks a broad coverage of the market by guaranteeing small and large issues alike. Ambac Assurance’s financial guarantee exposure in the U.S. public finance market reflects the historical emphasis on issues guaranteed with an original par amount of less than $25 million. However, U.S. structured finance and international finance transactions generally involve larger deals. The following table sets forth the distribution of Ambac Assurance’s guaranteed portfolio as of December 31, 2005, with respect to the original size of each guaranteed issue:

 

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Par Amount Per Issue

as of December 31, 2005

 

Original Par Amount

   Number
of Issues
   % of
Total
Number
of Issues
    Net Par
Amount
Outstanding
   % of Total
Net Par
Amount
Outstanding
 
                ($ in Millions)       

Less than $10 million

   8,465    53 %   $ 29,557    6 %

$10-25 million

   3,266    20       40,961    9  

$25-50 million

   1,680    11       47,682    10  

Greater than $50 million

   2,621    16       360,885    75  
                        
   16,032    100 %   $ 479,085    100 %
                        

Geographic Area

Ambac Assurance and its subsidiary, Ambac UK, are licensed to write business in the U.S. and abroad. The following table sets forth the geographic distribution of Ambac Assurance’s insured exposure as of December 31, 2005:

 

Geographic Area

   Net Par
Amount
Outstanding
   % of Total
Net Par
Amount
Outstanding
 

($ In Millions)

     

Domestic:

     

California

   $ 50,412    10 %

New York

     32,866    7  

Florida

     21,165    4  

Texas

     17,220    3  

Pennsylvania

     13,413    3  

New Jersey

     13,222    3  

Illinois

     12,339    3  

Massachusetts

     9,204    2  

Ohio

     8,643    2  

Michigan

     7,657    1  

Mortgage and asset-backed

     81,962    17  

Other states

     140,315    30  
             

Total Domestic

     408,418    85  
             

International:

     

United Kingdom

     22,761    5  

Germany

     5,895    1  

Australia

     5,139    1  

Japan

     4,274    1  

Italy

     1,843     

Internationally diversified

     22,874    5  

Other international

     7,881    2  
             

Total International

     70,667    15  
             

Grand Total

   $ 479,085    100 %
             

 

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Mortgage and asset-backed obligations include guarantees with multiple locations of risk within the United States. Internationally diversified is primarily made up of pooled debt obligations which include significant components of domestic exposure.

The table below shows the distribution by currency of Ambac Assurance’s guaranteed portfolio as of December 31, 2005:

 

Currency

   Net Par Amount
Outstanding in
Base Currency
   Net Par Amount
Outstanding in
U.S. Dollars
(Amounts in Millions)          

U.S. Dollars

   429,289    $ 429,289

Euros

   20,125      23,803

British Pounds

   10,828      18,614

Australian Dollars

   6,134      4,694

Japanese Yen

   225,409      1,910

Other

   674      775
         

Total

      $ 479,085
         

Single Risk

Ambac Assurance has adopted underwriting and exposure management policies designed to limit the net guarantees in force for any one credit. In addition, Ambac Assurance uses reinsurance to limit net exposure to any one credit. The highest single insured risk represented less than 1.0% of the aggregate net par amount insured. Ambac Assurance is also subject to certain regulatory limits and rating agency guidelines on exposure to a single credit. See “Insurance Regulatory Matters” and “Rating Agencies,” sections.

Competition

The financial guarantee business is highly competitive. Ambac Assurance faces competition from both other financial guarantors and alternative forms of credit enhancement. Accordingly, each transaction Ambac proposes to insure may compete against an alternative execution, e.g. credit derivatives, letters of credit or structures that do not employ third-party credit enhancement, including senior/subordinated structures. Financial guarantee insurance and other forms of credit enhancement also compete in nearly all instances with the issuer’s alternative of foregoing credit enhancement and paying a higher interest rate. If the interest savings from insurance or another form of credit enhancement are not greater than the cost of such credit enhancement, or if the issuer is unwilling to accept the insurer’s terms and conditions for insurance, the issuer will generally choose to issue bonds without credit enhancement. Credit spreads are a significant factor in the issuer’s determination of whether or not to seek credit enhancement. Credit spreads represent the difference in interest cost for issuers between their projected or actual borrowing rate compared to a benchmark rate (such as U.S. Treasuries). As an issuers’ credit rating rises, the likelihood that the issuer will choose to issue bonds without credit enhancement increases.

Ambac Assurance’s principal competitors in the market for financial guarantees are three other triple-A rated monoline insurance companies, Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (“FGIC”), Financial Security Assurance Inc. (“FSA Guarantee”) and MBIA Insurance Corporation (“MBIA”). XL Capital Assurance, Inc. (“XL”) is also a triple-A rated insurance company, and while generally not

 

16


a strong competitor in the broad market, it has been strong in certain sectors of the market. In addition, banks, smaller and lower rated financial guarantee insurance companies, multiline insurers and reinsurers represent additional participants in the market.

The principal competitive factors among the financial guarantors are: (i) premium rates; (ii) conditions precedent to the issuance of a policy related to the structure and security features of a proposed bond issue; (iii) the financial strength of the guarantor; and (iv) the quality of service provided to issuers, investors and other clients of the issuer. With respect to each of these competitive factors, Ambac Assurance believes it is on at least equal footing with each of its principal competitors.

Senior/subordinated structures in the mortgage-backed sector reduced the number of transactions available for insurance. As a result of the tight credit spreads noted above, opportunities in the pooled debt obligation market have also decreased significantly, adversely impacting Ambac’s growth in the market. Competitive and credit trends such as the ones we are currently experiencing in mortgage-backed securities and international pooled debt obligations are usually cyclical and a normal part of Ambac’s business.

In order to enter the financial guarantee market certain requirements must be met, most restrictive of which is that a significant minimum amount of capital is required of a financial guarantor in order to obtain triple-A financial strength ratings by the rating agencies. These capital requirements may deter other companies from entering the market. However, there can be no assurance that these capital requirements will deter potential competitors from entering the business. Additionally, the market may increasingly accept guarantees by double–A or lower rated insurers, who have less stringent capital requirements. Under New York law, a monoline financial guarantee insurer must have at least $75 million of paid-in capital and surplus and maintain thereafter at least $65 million of policyholders’ surplus. A similar law in California imposes a $100 million minimum capital and surplus requirement, with a maintenance requirement thereafter of $75 million.

Reinsurance

Ambac Assurance uses reinsurance to diversify risk, increase underwriting capacity, manage capital needs, stabilize shareholder returns and strengthen financial ratios. Ambac Assurance has treaty and facultative reinsurance agreements with reinsurers that allow Ambac Assurance to reduce its large risks, to manage its portfolio of insurance by bond type and geographic distribution, and to provide additional capacity for frequent bond issuers. Ambac Assurance’s current reinsurance program includes a surplus share treaty that allows Ambac Assurance to secure reinsurance on most insured transactions. Treaties provide coverage for the full term of the policies reinsured during the annual treaty period. Additionally, Ambac Assurance utilizes facultative reinsurance arrangements, when needed, for large transactions or if reinsurance is needed beyond capacity provided by the surplus share treaty. For both the treaty and facultative reinsurance agreements, upon the financial deterioration of the reinsurer and the occurrence of certain other events, Ambac Assurance has the right to recapture the business reinsured. For exposures reinsured, Ambac Assurance withholds a ceding commission to defray its underwriting and operating expenses. The largest reinsurer accounted for 1.6% of gross par outstanding at December 31, 2005. See Note 15 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

 

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The following table shows the distribution by bond type of Ambac Assurance’s ceded guaranteed portfolio at December 31, 2005:

Ceded Guaranteed Portfolio by Bond Type

as of December 31, 2005

 

Bond Type

   Ceded Par
Amount
Outstanding
   % of Gross
Par Ceded
 
($ In Millions)            

U.S. Public Finance:

     

Lease and tax-backed

   $ 5,763    6.5 %

General obligation

     1,930    3.2  

Utility revenue

     2,908    7.3  

Health care revenue

     5,912    17.9  

Transportation revenue

     3,104    11.6  

Higher education

     1,262    5.9  

Housing revenue

     246    2.4  

Other

     161    2.8  
             

Total U.S. Public Finance

     21,286    7.5  
             

U.S. Structured Finance:

     

Mortgage-backed and home equity

     2,186    4.2  

Asset-backed and conduits

     4,646    12.5  

Pooled debt obligations

     644    2.8  

Student loan

     848    4.9  

Investor-owned utilities

     3,075    15.8  

Other

     875    11.0  
             

Total U.S. Structured Finance

     12,274    7.8  
             

Total Domestic

     33,560    7.6  
             

International Finance:

     

Pooled debt obligations

     304    1.3  

Asset-backed and conduits

     3,393    18.1  

Mortgage-backed and home equity

     407    2.7  

Investor-owned and public utilities

     3,952    32.9  

Transportation revenue

     1,032    17.2  

Sovereign/sub-sovereign

     1,041    22.9  

Other

     473    41.4  
             

Total International Finance

     10,602    13.0  
             

Grand Total

   $ 44,162    8.4 %
             

As a primary financial guarantor, Ambac Assurance is required to honor its obligations to its policyholders whether or not its reinsurers perform their obligations under the various reinsurance agreements with Ambac Assurance. To minimize its exposure to significant losses from reinsurer insolvencies, Ambac Assurance (i) monitors the financial condition of its reinsurers, (ii) is entitled to receive collateral from its reinsurance counterparty in certain reinsurance contracts, and (iii) has certain cancellation rights that can be exercised by Ambac Assurance in the event of a rating downgrade of a reinsurer. For the purposes of determining the financial strength of Ambac Assurance, the rating agencies allow Ambac Assurance “credit” for reinsurance based on the reinsurer’s financial strength ratings. For Ambac Assurance, rated AAA by S&P, 100% credit is allowed for AAA reinsurance and

 

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65% to 70% credit is allowed for AA reinsurance. In recent years, a number of Ambac Assurance’s reinsurers have been downgraded from AAA to AA. While new contractual agreements may compensate in part for such downgrades, the effect of such downgrades, in general, is to decrease the financial benefits of using reinsurance under rating agency capital models. Ambac Assurance’s current primary reinsurers are Ace Guaranty Corporation, Assured Guaranty Reinsurance International, Ltd., Financial Security Assurance, Inc., MBIA, Radian Reinsurance Inc., Ram Reinsurance Company, Ltd. and Sompo Japan. See financial strength ratings of reinsurers located in the Ceded Premiums Written section of the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” located in Part II, Item 7.

Rating Agencies

Moody’s, S&P, Fitch and R&I periodically review Ambac Assurance’s business and financial condition, focusing on underwriting policies and procedures and the quality of the obligations insured. The rating agencies generally publish their ratings and supporting analyses. Each rating agency performs periodic assessments of the credits insured by Ambac Assurance, as well as the reinsurers and other providers of capital support to Ambac Assurance, to confirm that Ambac Assurance continues to satisfy such rating agency’s capital adequacy criteria necessary to maintain Ambac Assurance’s Triple-A rating. Ambac Assurance’s ability to compete with other Triple-A rated financial guarantors, and its results of operations and financial condition, would be materially adversely affected by any reduction in its ratings.

Financial factors considered by the rating agencies in assessing capital adequacy include:

 

  ·   capital charges or other assessments of credit risks for Ambac Assurance’s insured portfolio;

 

  ·   the quality of Ambac Assurance’s investment portfolio;

 

  ·   the credit quality of Ambac Assurance’s reinsurers;

 

  ·   credit lines and other capital support arrangements;

 

  ·   premium revenues expected to be generated from outstanding policies;

 

  ·   anticipated future new business originations; and

 

  ·   future losses under rating agency stress scenarios.

Ambac Assurance’s ratings have been periodically affirmed by each of the rating agencies and have never been revised downward or put on credit watch or review for a possible downgrade. Moody’s, S&P, Fitch and R&I’s ratings were last reaffirmed in 2005. A rating by Moody’s, S&P, Fitch or R&I is not a “market rating” or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security.

Insurance Regulatory Matters

General Law

United States of America:

Ambac Assurance is licensed to transact financial guarantee and surety business as an insurance company in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the territory of

 

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Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Ambac Assurance is subject to the insurance laws and regulations of the State of Wisconsin (the “Wisconsin Insurance Laws”), its state of incorporation, and the insurance laws and regulations of other states in which it is licensed to transact business. These laws and regulations, as well as the level of supervisory authority that may be exercised by the various state insurance departments, vary by jurisdiction. They generally require financial guarantors to maintain minimum standards of business conduct and solvency, meet certain financial tests, and file certain reports with regulatory authorities, including information concerning their capital structure, ownership and financial condition. They generally require prior approval of certain changes in control of domestic financial guarantors and their direct and indirect parents and the payment of certain dividends and distributions. In addition, these laws and regulations require approval of certain inter-corporate transfers of assets and certain transactions between financial guarantors and their direct and indirect parents and affiliates. They generally require that all such transactions have terms no less favorable than terms that would result from transactions between parties negotiating at arm’s length. Ambac Assurance is required to file quarterly and annual statutory financial statements with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”), and if required, each jurisdiction in which it is licensed. It is subject to single and aggregate risk limits and other statutory restrictions concerning the types and quality of investments and the filing and use of policy forms and premium rates. Additionally, Ambac Assurance’s accounts and operations are subject to periodic examination by the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin (the “Wisconsin Commissioner”) and other state insurance regulatory authorities. See Note 17 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

United Kingdom:

Ambac UK is licensed to transact credit, suretyship and financial guarantee insurance in the United Kingdom and to offer insurance services in thirteen other European Union (“EU”) countries. EU directives allow Ambac UK to conduct business in EU states other than the United Kingdom in compliance with the scope of permission granted these companies by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”) without the necessity of additional licensing or authorization in other EU jurisdictions.

Ambac Credit Products Limited, also an Ambac Assurance wholly-owned subsidiary, is licensed in the United Kingdom to transact credit derivatives, as well as act as agent for Ambac Credit Products LLP and Ambac Capital Funding. Ambac Credit Products Limited is currently able to offer services in two other EU countries.

Ambac UK and Ambac Credit Products Limited are each subject to regulation by the FSA in the conduct of their business. The FSA is the single statutory regulator responsible for regulating the financial services industry in the U.K., having the authority to oversee the carrying on of “regulated activities” (including deposit taking, insurance and reinsurance, investment management and most other financial services), with the purpose of maintaining confidence in the U.K. financial system, providing public understanding of the system, securing the proper degree of protection for consumers and helping to reduce financial crime. In addition, the regulatory regime in the United Kingdom must comply with certain EU directives binding on all EU member states.

The FSA requires that non-life insurance companies such as Ambac UK maintain a margin of solvency at all times in respect of the liabilities of the insurance company, the calculation of which depends on the type and amount of insurance business a company writes. The FSA also requires that

 

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Ambac UK calculate and share with the FSA its “enhanced capital requirement” based on risk-weightings applied to assets held and lines of business written. This enhanced capital requirement is not yet a legally-binding requirement but is required to form the basis of Ambac UK’s individual capital assessment which is then discussed with the FSA. It is currently not expected that the enhanced capital requirement will become legally binding before 2007. In addition, an insurer is required to perform and submit to the FSA a solvency margin calculation return in respect of its ultimate parent. The test at the ultimate parent company level will become a legally-binding capital requirement at December 31, 2006.

Ambac Financial Group believes that Ambac Assurance and Ambac UK are in compliance with all applicable insurance laws and regulations.

Insurance Holding Company Laws

Under the Wisconsin Insurance Holding Company laws, any acquisition of control of Ambac Financial Group and thereby indirect control of Ambac Assurance requires the prior approval of the Wisconsin Commissioner. “Control” is defined as the direct or indirect power to direct or cause the direction of the management and policies of a person. Any purchaser of 10% or more of the outstanding voting stock of a corporation is presumed to have acquired control of that corporation and its subsidiaries unless the Wisconsin Commissioner, upon application, determines otherwise. For purposes of this test, Ambac Financial Group believes that a holder of common stock having the right to cast 10% of the votes which may be cast by the holders of all shares of common stock of Ambac Financial Group would be deemed to have control of Ambac Assurance within the meaning of the Wisconsin Insurance Laws.

Pursuant to these laws, FMR Corporation obtained approval from the Wisconsin Commissioner to acquire greater than 10% of Ambac Financial Group’s common stock. As of December 31, 2005, their percentage of ownership was approximately 12.54%. In their request for approval from the Wisconsin Commissioner, FMR Corporation disclaimed any present intent to exercise control over Ambac Financial Group or Ambac Assurance or to control or attempt to control the management of operations of Ambac Financial Group or Ambac Assurance.

The Wisconsin insurance holding company laws also require prior approval by the Wisconsin Commissioner of certain transactions between Ambac Assurance and companies affiliated with Ambac Assurance.

Dividend Restrictions

Wisconsin:

Pursuant to the Wisconsin Insurance Laws, Ambac Assurance may declare dividends, subject to restrictions in its articles of incorporation, provided that, after giving effect to the distribution, it would not violate certain statutory equity, solvency, income and asset tests. Distributions to Ambac (other than stock dividends) must be reported to the Wisconsin Commissioner. Extraordinary dividends must be reported prior to payment and are subject to disapproval by the Wisconsin Commissioner. An extraordinary dividend is defined as a dividend or distribution, the fair market value of which, together with all dividends from the preceding 12 months, exceeds the lesser of: (a) 10% of policyholders’ surplus as of the preceding December 31 or (b) the greater of: (i) statutory net income for the calendar year preceding the date of the dividend or distribution, minus realized capital gains for that calendar year;

 

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or (ii) the aggregate of statutory net income for the three calendar years preceding the date of the dividend or distribution, minus realized capital gains for those calendar years and minus dividends paid or credited and distributions made within the first two of the preceding three calendar years. Additionally, no quarterly dividend may exceed the dividend paid in the corresponding quarter of the preceding year by more than 15% without approval from the Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner. During 2005, Ambac Assurance received regulatory approval for the payment of dividends because the dividends exceeded the statutorily prescribed threshold.

During 2005, 2004 and 2003, Ambac Assurance paid to Ambac Financial Group cash dividends on its common stock totaling $353.4 million, $103.0 million and $89.6 million, respectively. See Note 17 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

United Kingdom:

U.K. law prohibits Ambac UK from declaring a dividend to its shareholders unless it has “profits available for distribution.” The determination of whether a company has profits available for distribution is based on its accumulated realized profits less its accumulated realized losses. While the U.K. insurance regulatory laws impose no statutory restrictions on a general insurer’s ability to declare a dividend, the FSA’s capital requirements may in practice act as a restriction on dividends.

Statutory Contingency Reserve

Ambac Assurance is required to establish a mandatory contingency reserve in accordance with the NAIC Accounting Practices and Procedures manual (“NAIC SAP”) and the Wisconsin Administrative Code. Under NAIC SAP, financial guarantors are required to establish a contingency reserve equal to the greater of 50% of premiums written or a stated percentage of the principal guaranteed depending on the category of obligation insured. However, under the Wisconsin Administrative Code, a municipal bond insurer is required to establish a contingency reserve consisting of 50% of earned premiums on policies of municipal bond insurance. The only exemption is when another jurisdiction in which the insurer is licensed requires a larger contingency reserve than required by the Wisconsin Administrative Code. Ambac Assurance calculates contributions using both methodologies and records the higher contribution amount. Contributions are required to be made in equal quarterly installments over a period of 20 years for municipal bonds and 15 years for all other obligations. Under NAIC SAP, contributions may be discontinued if the total reserve established for all categories exceeds the sum of the stated percentages contained therein multiplied by the unpaid principal balance. This reserve must be maintained for the periods specified above, except that the guarantor may be permitted to release reserves under specified circumstances in the event that actual loss experience exceeds certain thresholds or if the reserve accumulated is deemed excessive in relation to the guarantor’s outstanding guaranteed obligations, with notice to or approval by the insurance commissioner.

New York Financial Guarantee Insurance Law

New York’s comprehensive financial guarantee insurance law governs the conduct of business of all financial guarantors licensed to do business in New York, including Ambac Assurance. Financial guarantors are also required to maintain case basis credit loss and loss expense reserves and unearned premium reserves on a basis established by the statute.

 

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The New York financial guarantee insurance law establishes single risk limits with respect to obligations insured by financial guaranty insurers. Such limits are specific to the type of insured obligation (for example, municipal or asset-backed). The limits generally compare the insured principal amount outstanding and/or average annual debt service on the insured obligations, net of reinsurance and collateral, for a single risk to the insurer’s qualified statutory capital, which is defined as the sum of the insurer’s policyholders’ surplus and contingency reserves. As of December 31, 2005 and 2004, Ambac Assurance and its subsidiaries were in compliance with these regulatory requirements.

Aggregate risk limits are also established on the basis of aggregate net liability and policyholders’ surplus requirements. “Aggregate net liability” is defined as the aggregate of the outstanding insured principal, interest and other payments of guaranteed obligations, net of reinsurance and collateral. Under these limits, policyholders’ surplus and contingency reserves must at least equal a percentage of aggregate net liability that is equal to the sum of various percentages of aggregate net liability for various categories of specified obligations. The percentage varies from 0.33% for municipal bonds to 4.00% for certain non-investment grade obligations. As of December 31, 2005 and 2004, Ambac Assurance and its subsidiaries were in compliance with these regulatory requirements.

Financial Guarantee Insurance Regulation in Other States

The Wisconsin insurance laws and regulations governing municipal bond guarantors are similar to those in New York. The Wisconsin regulations also include certain single and aggregate risk limitations. The average annual debt service for any single issue of municipal bonds may not exceed 10% of Ambac Assurance’s policyholders’ surplus. In addition, Ambac Assurance’s cumulative net liability, defined as one-third of one percent of the guaranteed unpaid principal and interest covered by current municipal bond insurance policies, may not exceed its qualified statutory capital. As of December 31, 2005 and 2004, Ambac Assurance and its subsidiaries were in compliance with these regulatory requirements.

California has financial guarantee insurance laws similar in structure to those of New York. None of the risk limits established in California’s legislation with respect to business transacted by Ambac Assurance are more stringent in any material respect than the corresponding provisions in the New York financial guarantee insurance statute.

In addition to the laws and regulations of New York, Wisconsin and California, Ambac Assurance is subject to laws and regulations of other states concerning the transaction of financial guarantees, none of which is more stringent in any material respect than the New York financial guarantee insurance statute.

Financial Services

Ambac Financial Group’s Financial Services segment provides financial and investment products including investment agreements, funding conduits, interest rate, currency and total return swaps principally to clients of the financial guarantee business, which includes municipalities and other public entities, health care organizations, asset-backed and structured finance issuers.

Financial services revenues are primarily derived from: (i) gross investment income; (ii) net swap revenues; and (iii) net realized gains and losses on sales of securities. Total revenues were $333.9 million, $236.3 million, and $231.4 million in 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively.

 

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The principal competitive factors among providers of financial service products that Ambac Financial Group offers are: (1) pricing of contracts; (2) investment returns; (3) the financial strength of the provider (including credit enhancements); (4) the ability to provide services tailored to customers’ needs; and (5) the quality of service provided to customers. With respect to each of these competitive factors, Ambac Financial Group believes that it is on equal footing with its principal competitors.

Investment Agreements

The principal purpose of Ambac Capital Funding is to provide investment agreements, including repurchase agreements, primarily to municipalities and their authorities, states, and asset-backed and structured finance issuers. Investment agreements are used by municipal bond issuers to invest bond proceeds until such proceeds can be used for their intended purpose, such as financing construction. Investment agreements used in structured financings provide a guaranteed investment return customized to meet expected cash flow requirements. The investment agreement provides for the guaranteed return of principal invested, as well as the payment of interest thereon at a guaranteed rate and is rated triple-A by virtue of Ambac Assurance’s financial guarantee policy, which guarantees its payment obligations.

Ambac Capital Funding manages its balance sheet to protect against a number of risks inherent in its business including liquidity, market (principally interest rate), credit, operational and legal risk. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis—Risk Management” located in Part II, Item 7 for further information. Ambac Capital Funding is managed with the goal of matching the cash flows of the investment agreement liabilities with the cash flows of the related investment portfolio. To achieve this goal, derivative contracts are used.

A source of liquidity risk is the ability of some counterparties to withdraw moneys on dates other than those specified in the draw down schedule. Liquidity risk is mitigated by provisions in certain of the investment agreements that limit a counterparty’s ability to draw on the funds and by risk management procedures that require the regular re-evaluation and re-projection of draw down schedules. See “Liquidity and Capital Resources” section located in Part II, Item 7 for a discussion on the impact of a ratings downgrade on Ambac Assurance. Investments are restricted to fixed income securities with a credit quality such that the overall minimum average portfolio credit quality is maintained at Aa/AA. Based upon management’s projections, Ambac Capital Funding maintains funds invested in cash and cash equivalents to meet short-term liquidity needs.

Ambac Capital Funding may use interest rate and currency swap contracts as part of its overall cash flow risk management. Interest rate swap contracts are agreements where Ambac Capital Funding agrees with other parties to exchange, at specified intervals, the difference between fixed-rate and floating-rate interest amounts or the difference between different interest rate indices calculated by reference to an agreed upon notional amount. Currency swap contracts are agreements where Ambac Capital Funding agrees with other parties to exchange foreign currency denominated cash flows for USD denominated cash flows calculated by reference to an agreed upon notional amount.

See Note 8 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information on investment agreements.

Ambac Securities principal business is to serve as the placement agent and dealer for securities issued by Ambac Capital Funding in private placement transactions. Ambac Securities is registered as a

 

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broker-dealer with the SEC and with certain states that require such registration, and it is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. As a registered broker-dealer, Ambac Securities is subject to the net capital requirements of Rule 15c3-1 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which is designed to measure the general financial condition and liquidity of a broker-dealer. In accordance with this rule, the ratio of aggregate indebtedness to net capital (“net capital ratio”) shall not exceed 15 to 1. At December 31, 2005, Ambac Securities had net capital, as adjusted, of approximately $0.6 million, which was $0.5 million in excess of its required net capital of $100 thousand. The net capital ratio was 0.04 to 1.0.

Derivative Products

The primary activities in the derivative products business are intermediation of interest rate and currency swap transactions and taking total return swap positions on certain fixed income obligations. Most of the swap intermediation is done on a fully hedged basis with the exception of certain municipal interest rate swaps that are not hedged for the basis difference between taxable and tax-exempt interest rates. As such, changes in the relationship between taxable and tax-exempt interest rates will result in mark-to-market gains or losses. A portion of these municipal interest rate swaps transacted by Ambac Financial Services contain provisions that are designed to protect Ambac Financial Group against certain forms of tax reform, thus mitigating its basis risk. The interest rate swaps provided by Ambac Financial Services are guaranteed by Ambac Assurance through policies that guarantee the obligations of Ambac Financial Services and its counterparties. Total return swaps, which are entered into by Ambac Capital Services, are only used for fixed income obligations that meet Ambac Assurance’s credit underwriting criteria.

Ambac Financial Services and Ambac Capital Services manage a variety of risks inherent in their businesses, including credit, market, liquidity, operational and legal. These risks are identified, measured, and monitored through a variety of control mechanisms, which are in place at different levels throughout the organization. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis—Risk Management” located in Part II, Item 7 for further information.

Ambac has transferred financial assets to two special purpose entities. The business purpose of these entities is to provide certain financial guarantee clients with funding for their debt obligations. The activities of the special purpose entities are contractually limited to purchasing assets from Ambac Financial Group, issuing medium-term notes (“MTNs”) to fund such purchases, executing derivative hedges and related administrative services. Ambac Assurance may issue a financial guarantee insurance policy on the assets sold, the MTNs issued or both. As of December 31, 2005, Ambac Assurance had financial guarantee insurance policies issued for all assets and MTNs owned and outstanding by the special purpose entities. Ambac does not consolidate these special purpose entities under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 140 “Accounting for Transfers and Servicing of Financial Assets and Extinguishments of Liabilities”. See Notes 2 and 10 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

Investments and Investment Policy

As of December 31, 2005, the consolidated investments of Ambac Financial Group had an aggregate fair value of approximately $16.0 billion and an aggregate amortized cost of approximately $15.6 billion. These investments are managed internally by officers of Ambac Financial Group, who are experienced investment managers. All investments are effected in accordance with the general

 

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objectives and guidelines for investments established by Ambac’s Board of Directors. These guidelines encompass credit quality, risk concentration and holding period, and are periodically reviewed and revised as appropriate.

Pursuant to Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 115, “Accounting for Certain Investments in Debt and Equity Securities,” Ambac Financial Group has designated all investments as “available-for-sale” and reports them at fair value. Unrealized gains and losses considered temporary are excluded from earnings and reported as a component of “Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income” in stockholders’ equity, net of tax. Unrealized losses that are considered other than temporary are recorded as a write down of the asset and are included in net income.

As of December 31, 2005, the Financial Guarantee investment portfolio had an aggregate fair value of approximately $9.3 billion and an aggregate amortized cost of approximately $9.1 billion. Ambac Assurance’s investment policy is designed to achieve diversification of its portfolio and only permits investment in fixed income securities, consistent with its goal to achieve the highest after-tax, long-term return. This policy takes into consideration Ambac Assurance’s desire for both current income and long-term capital growth. Ambac Assurance is subject to limits on types and quality of investments imposed by the insurance laws and regulations of the States of Wisconsin and New York. In compliance with these laws, Ambac Assurance’s Board of Directors approves each specific investment transaction of Ambac Assurance. See “Insurance Regulatory Matters—General Law,” section above.

As of December 31, 2005, the Financial Services investment portfolio had an aggregate fair value of approximately $6.6 billion and an aggregate amortized cost of approximately $6.5 billion. Ambac Capital Funding’s investment policy is designed to achieve the highest after-tax return on equity, subject to minimum average quality rating of AA on invested assets, and to maintain cash flow matching of invested assets to funded liabilities to minimize interest rate and liquidity risk. For further discussion, see “Investment Agreements,” section above.

The following tables provide certain information concerning the investments of Ambac Financial Group:

Summary of Investments

As of December 31,

 

     2005     2004     2003  

Investment Category

   Carrying
Value
   Weighted
Average
Yield (1)
    Carrying
Value
   Weighted
Average
Yield (1)
    Carrying
Value
   Weighted
Average
Yield (1)
 

($ In Thousands)

               

Long-term investments:

               

Taxable bonds

   $ 8,836,854    4.84 %   $ 8,114,307    3.83 %   $ 8,155,342    5.07 %

Tax-exempt bonds

     6,658,322    4.61       6,128,653    4.75       5,555,299    5.00  
                           

Total long-term investments

     15,495,176    4.74       14,242,960    4.22       13,710,641    5.05  

Short-term investments (2)

     472,034    3.74       521,226    2.16       250,382    1.05  

Other

     14,173    —         4,234    —         4,417    —    
                           

Total

   $ 15,981,383    4.71 %   $ 14,768,420    4.14 %   $ 13,965,440    4.97 %
                           

 

(1) Yields are stated on a pre-tax basis, based on average amortized cost.
(2) Includes taxable and tax-exempt investments.

 

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Investments by Security Type

As of December 31,

 

     2005     2004     2003  

Investment Category

   Carrying
Value
   Weighted
Average
Yield (1)
    Carrying
Value
   Weighted
Average
Yield (1)
    Carrying
Value
   Weighted
Average
Yield (1)
 

($ In Thousands)

               

Municipal obligations (2)

   $ 6,896,354    4.67 %   $ 6,352,190    4.81 %   $ 5,734,046    5.05 %

Corporate securities

     556,239    6.08       673,783    5.55       1,086,231    5.84  

Foreign obligations

     206,744    4.58       237,873    4.71       177,179    5.54  

U.S. government obligations

     184,465    4.21       125,321    4.18       102,212    4.16  

U.S. agency obligations

     946,430    5.06       876,242    4.76       647,652    5.06  

Mortgage and asset-backed securities

     6,704,944    4.68       5,977,551    3.38       5,963,321    4.89  
                           

Total long-term investments

     15,495,176    4.74       14,242,960    4.22       13,710,641    5.04  

Short-term investments (2)

     472,034    3.74       521,226    2.16       250,382    1.05  

Other

     14,173    —         4,234    —         4,417    —    
                           

Total

   $ 15,981,383    4.71 %   $ 14,768,420    4.14 %   $ 13,965,440    4.97 %
                           

 

(1) Yields are stated on a pre-tax basis, based on average amortized cost.
(2) Includes taxable and tax-exempt investments.

See Note 2 and 3 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

Employees

As of December 31, 2005, Ambac Financial Group and its subsidiaries had 354 employees. None of the employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements. Ambac Financial Group considers its employee relations to be satisfactory.

Corporate Governance

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 requires Chief Executive Officers and Chief Financial Officers to make certain certifications with respect to this report and to Ambac Financial Group’s disclosure control and procedures and internal control over financial reporting.

Ambac Financial Group’s Disclosure Committee has the responsibility for ensuring that there is an adequate and effective process for establishing, maintaining and evaluating disclosure controls and procedures for Ambac Financial Group in connection with its external disclosures. Ambac Financial Group has a Code of Business Conduct that expresses the values that drive employee behavior and maintains Ambac Financial Group’s commitment to the highest standards of conduct. This code can be found on Ambac Financial Group’s website at www.ambac.com by clicking on the “Investor Relations” page followed by “Corporate Governance”. Ambac Financial Group’s corporate governance guideline and the charters for the audit and risk assessment committee, governance committee and compensation committee are also available on our website under the “Corporate Governance” page.

 

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Item 1A. Risk Factors.

In addition to the other information contained in this Form 10-K and the exhibits hereto, the following risk factors should be considered carefully in evaluating our business. A discussion of the policies and procedures used to identify, assess and manage certain risks is set forth under Item 7A “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” in this Report. Our business, financial condition, or results of operations could be materially adversely affected by any of these risks. Additional risks not presently known to us or that we currently deem immaterial individually may also adversely affect our business, financial condition, or results of operations.

A downgrade of the financial strength rating of Ambac Assurance and/or Ambac UK would adversely affect our business and prospects and, consequently, our results of operations and financial condition.

Our insurance companies currently have triple A financial strength ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Standard & Poor’s Rating Services, Fitch Inc. and Rating and Investment Information, Inc. The objective of these ratings is to provide an opinion on an insurer’s financial strength and its ability and intent to pay under its insurance policies and contracts in accordance with their terms. The rating is not specific to any particular policy or contract. Financial strength ratings do not refer to an insurer’s ability to meet non-insurance obligations and are not a “market rating” or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security.

The ratings assigned by Moody’s, S&P, Fitch and R&I to us are subject to periodic review and may be downgraded by one or more rating agencies as a result of: changes in the views of the rating agencies, adverse developments in our financial condition or results of operations due to underwriting or investment losses. Moody’s, S&P, Fitch and R&I’s ratings were reaffirmed in 2005.

Any downgrade in our financial strength rating, or the placement of our financial strength rating on negative credit watch, would have a material adverse effect on our competitive position and our prospects for future business opportunities, particularly if our competitors in the financial guarantee industry were not downgraded or placed on credit watch. In addition, a downgrade of our financial strength ratings below specified levels would allow credit derivative counterparties to terminate certain agreements, resulting in a possible payment of a settlement amount or we would have to pledge collateral for the benefit of the counterparty. In the event that Ambac Assurance was downgraded, we also may be required to post collateral to our investment agreement and derivative counterparties, introducing liquidity risk. In addition, most investment agreements provide certain remedies for the investment agreement purchaser in the event of a downgrade of Ambac Assurance’s credit rating, typically to A1 by Moody’s or A+ by S&P. In most cases, we are permitted to post collateral or otherwise enhance our credit, prior to an actual draw on the investment agreement. Our results of operations and financial condition would be materially adversely affected by any reduction in its ratings. See Item 1 “Business—Rating Agencies” and Item 7 “Management’s Discussion and Analysis-Credit Ratings and Collateral” for further information.

A downgrade of our long term credit ratings would adversely affect our liquidity and increase our borrowing costs.

Ambac Financial Group’s long term debt is rated “AA” by S&P and Fitch and “Aa” by Moody’s. Our access to external sources of financing, as well as the cost of financing, is dependent on various factors and could be adversely affected by a deterioration of our long-term debt ratings. Long-term debt ratings are influenced by a number of factors. These include, but are not limited to: financial leverage on an absolute basis or relative to peers, the composition of the balance sheet and/or capital

 

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structure, material changes in earning trends and volatility, inability to dividend monies from Ambac Assurance and our competitive position. Material deterioration in any one or a combination of these factors could result in a downgrade of our credit ratings, thus increasing the cost of and/or limiting the availability of unsecured financing. Moreover, if our need for capital arises because of significant sudden losses, the occurrence of these losses may make it more difficult for us to raise the necessary capital. If we cannot obtain adequate capital on favorable terms or at all, our business, operating results and financial condition would be adversely affected.

We are subject to credit risk throughout our businesses, including large single risks and correlated risks.

We are exposed to the risk that issuers of debt which we have insured (or with respect to which we have written credit derivatives), issuers of debt which we hold in our investment portfolio, reinsurers and other contract counterparties (including derivative counterparties) may default in their financial obligations, whether as the result of insolvency, lack of liquidity, operational failure or other reasons. These credit risks could cause increased losses and loss reserves and mark-to-market losses with respect to credit derivatives in our financial guarantee business; we could be required by the rating agencies to hold additional capital against insured exposures which have been downgraded by the rating agencies; and we could experience losses and decreases in the value of our investment portfolio and, therefore, our financial strength. Such credit risks may be in the form of large single risk exposures to particular issuers, reinsurers or counterparties; losses caused by catastrophic events (including terrorist acts and natural disasters); or losses in respect of different, but correlated, credit exposures.

General economic conditions can adversely affect our business results and prospects.

Changes in general economic conditions can impact our business. Recessions; increases in corporate, municipal and/or consumer bankruptcies; changes in interest rate levels; changes in domestic and international law, including tax laws; wars; and terrorist acts could adversely affect the performance of our insured portfolio and our investment portfolio, e.g. leading to increases in losses and loss reserves in our insured portfolio and decreases in the value of our investment portfolio and, therefore, our financial strength. Furthermore, reduction in the volume of capital markets transactions; levels of competition; and changes in investor perception of credit risk could adversely impact the volume and pricing of financial guarantee insurance transactions and therefore adversely impact our business prospects.

Changes in prevailing interest rate levels could adversely impact our business results and prospects.

Increases in prevailing interest rate levels can adversely affect the value of our investment portfolio and, therefore, our financial strength. In the event that investments must be sold in order to pay claims, such investments would likely be sold at discounted prices. Additionally, increasing interest rates could lead to increased credit stress on consumer asset-backed transactions in our insured portfolio; (as the securitized assets supporting a portion of these exposures are floating rate consumer obligations); slower prepayment speeds and resulting “extension risk” relative to such consumer asset-backed transactions in our insured portfolio and in our investment portfolio; decreased volume of capital markets activity and, correspondingly, decreased volume of insured transactions.

Decreases in prevailing interest rate levels can adversely affect the demand for, and pricing of, financial guarantee insurance, since lower absolute interest rates reduce credit spreads and, therefore,

 

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the savings realized by issuers by using our core product. Additionally, decreasing interest rates could result in early terminations of financial guarantee insurance policies in respect of which we are paid on an installment basis, thus reducing premium earned in respect of these transactions. Decreases in prevailing interest rates would also reduce investment income.

The financial guarantee business is highly competitive.

The financial guarantee business is highly competitive and we expect it to remain so in the near future. We face competition from both other financial guarantors and alternatives to third-party credit enhancement. Such alternatives include bank financing, senior/subordinated securitization structures, letters of credit, guarantees and credit derivatives provided primarily by foreign and domestic banks. See Item 1 “Business—Competition” for further information.

In addition, our performance is largely dependent on the talents and efforts of highly skilled individuals. Over the past few years, there has been increased competition in the financial guarantee business for qualified employees. Our business could be adversely affected if we are unable to attract new employees and retain and motivate our existing employees.

Adequate capital support may not be available.

Financial guarantee insurers, including Ambac Assurance, typically rely on providers of lines of credit, credit swap facilities and similar support mechanisms (often referred to as “soft capital”) to supplement their “hard capital”. The ratings of soft capital providers directly affect the level of capital credit which the rating agencies attribute to the financial guarantee insurer when rating its financial strength. We intend to maintain soft capital facilities with providers having ratings adequate to provide the desired capital credit, although no assurance can be given that one or more of the rating agencies will not downgrade or withdraw the applicable ratings of such providers in the future. In addition, we cannot assure that an acceptable replacement provider would be available in that event. Reductions by the rating agencies in the amount of capital credit that we receive in respect of soft capital facilities would require us to procure additional soft capital.

Our holding company structure and certain regulatory and other constraints could affect our ability to pay dividends and make other payments.

We are a holding company and have no substantial operations of our own or assets other than our ownership of Ambac Assurance, our principal operating subsidiary, and certain other smaller subsidiaries. As such, we are largely dependent on dividends from Ambac Assurance to pay dividends on our capital stock, to pay principal and interest on our indebtedness, to pay our operating expenses, to purchase our common stock in the open market and to make capital investment in our subsidiaries. Wisconsin insurance regulations restrict the declaration and payment of dividends and the making of distributions by Ambac Assurance, unless certain regulatory requirements are met. The inability of Ambac Assurance to pay dividends in an amount sufficient to enable us to meet our cash requirements at the holding company level could affect our ability to repay our debt or have a material adverse effect on our operations. See Item 1 “Business—Wisconsin Dividend Restrictions” for further information.

Our risk management policies and practices may not anticipate unforeseen risks and/or the magnitude of potential for loss as the result of foreseen risks.

As described in “Item 1 Business—Risk Management”, we have established underwriting policies and practices which seek to mitigate our exposure to credit risk in our insured portfolio. These policies

 

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and practices are based in part on models reflecting historical factors, e.g. default rates and severity of loss experience. These policies and practices may not insulate us from risks that are unforeseen and which have unanticipated loss severity.

Our net income and earnings could become more volatile due to the application of fair value accounting (FAS 133) to the portion of our credit enhancement business which is executed in credit derivative form.

FAS 133 requires that credit derivative transactions be recorded at fair value. Since market prices for the contracts that we execute are not available, Ambac Assurance estimates fair value by using modeling methodologies which are less precise than using quoted market prices. Changes in estimated fair values relative to our credit derivative book can cause increases or decreases in the value of such credit derivative transactions; those changes in value are reported in our financial statements and will therefore affect our reported earnings. Changes in estimated fair values can be caused by general market conditions, perception of credit risk generally and events affecting particular credit derivative transactions (e.g. impairment or improvement of specific reference entities or reference obligations).

Changes to accounting rules relating to the financial guarantee industry could have a material adverse affect on us and our industry.

In January and February of 2005, the Securities and Exchange Commission, or the SEC, discussed with financial guarantee industry participants the diversity in practice with respect to their accounting policies for loss reserves. In June 2005, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, or the FASB, added a project to its agenda to consider the accounting by financial guarantee insurers for claims liability recognition, premium recognition and deferred acquisition costs. The proposed and final documents are expected to be issued in 2006. When the FASB and/or the SEC reaches a conclusion on this issue, we and the rest of the financial guarantee industry may be required to change some aspects of our loss reserving policies and the potential changes could extend to premium and expense recognition, which in turn could have a material effect on us and the financial guarantee industry.

We are subject to extensive regulation in the conduct of our financial guarantee insurance business.

Our principal subsidiary, Ambac Assurance, is subject to the insurance laws and regulations of each jurisdiction in which it is licensed. Ambac UK, the subsidiary through which we write financial guarantee insurance in the United Kingdom and in the European Union, is regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Failure to comply with applicable insurance laws and regulations could expose us to fines, the loss of insurance licenses in certain jurisdictions and/or the inability to dividend monies to Ambac from Ambac Assurance, all of which could have an adverse impact on our business results and prospects. Additionally, if the cost of complying with these insurance laws and regulations increases materially, this could impact our business results.

We are subject to a variety of operational risks which could have a material adverse impact on our business results.

We depend on internal processes, risk models, various systems and our employees in the conduct of our business. Any failure of such processes, models and systems and/or employee misconduct or fraud could have an adverse impact on our business results. We are also subject to external operational

 

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risks, including fraud, settlement risk and the failure of risk models or other analytical tools provided by third parties. Any such external fraud or failure could have an adverse impact on our business results.

Changes in the rating agencies’ capital models and rating methodology with respect to financial guarantee insurers may adversely affect our business results and prospects.

Changes in the rating agencies’ capital models and rating methodology could require us to hold more capital against specified credit risks in our insured portfolio. These requirements could place stress on our ratings and force us to raise additional capital, which could in turn result in lower returns on equity.

Changes in tax laws impacting marginal tax rates and/or the preferred tax treatment of municipal obligations could adversely impact our business.

Tax legislation which imposes a “flat tax” or otherwise changes the tax preference of municipal obligations under current law could adversely affect the market value of municipal obligations. In large part, our investment portfolio is invested in tax-exempt municipal obligations; as such, the value of our investment portfolio could be adversely affected by any such legislation. Additionally, any such changes in tax law could reduce the difference between tax-exempt interest rates and taxable rates. This reduction could adversely impact the financial performance of our interest rate swap business, since we have assumed the “basis risk” between tax-exempt and taxable interest rates in that business. See Item 1 Business – Derivative Products” for further information.

Item 1B. Unresolved Staff Comments.

Ambac’s investment portfolio includes fixed income investments that were insured by Ambac Assurance Corporation (“Ambac Insured Investments”) at the time such fixed income obligations were issued (commonly referred to as new issue insurance policies). Ambac Insured Investments in the investment portfolio amounted to $681 million at December 31, 2005 and are accounted for as “available for sale” in the investment portfolio. The investments, primarily held by the Financial Services segment, are recorded at fair value which includes the value of the embedded financial guarantee. Beginning in January 2005, several financial guarantee industry participants, including Ambac, received written comments from the SEC staff regarding the proper accounting treatment for Ambac Insured Investments that are in the investment portfolio. Recent discussions with the SEC staff suggest that the staff’s tentative view of the appropriate accounting for Ambac Insured Investments is to extinguish a portion of the contingent guarantee obligation related to the amount acquired. Ambac cannot predict how the SEC staff will resolve this issue and the resulting impact on our consolidated financial statements. Until the issue is resolved, Ambac intends to apply its existing methodology. See Note 3 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 for further information.

In January and February 2005, the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) staff discussed with several financial guarantee industry participants, including Ambac, differences in loss reserve recognition practices among those participants. In June 2005, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) added a project to its agenda to consider the accounting of financial guarantee insurance. As part of this project the FASB will consider several aspects of the financial guarantee insurance accounting model, including claims liability recognition, premium recognition and the related deferred acquisition costs. The proposed and final documents are expected to be issued in 2006. When the FASB or SEC staff reach a conclusion on this issue, Ambac and the rest of the financial guarantee industry may be required to change some aspects of their loss reserving, revenue recognition,

 

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and/or deferred acquisition accounting policies. Ambac cannot predict how the FASB or SEC staff will resolve this issue and the resulting impact on our consolidated financial statements. Until the issue is resolved, Ambac intends to apply its existing methodology. A further description of Ambac’s accounting for losses and loss expenses can be found in Note 2 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8.

Item 2. Properties.

The executive office of Ambac Financial Group is located at One State Street Plaza, New York, New York 10004, which consists of approximately 145,000 square feet of office space, under an agreement that expires in September 2019. This office houses operations for all reportable business segments.

Ambac’s financial guarantee business segment also maintains offices internationally, with the principal office located at 6 Broadgate, London EC2, which consists of approximately 12,600 square feet of office space under an agreement that expires in September 2013. International operations are also conducted in three offices located in Australia (Sydney), Italy (Milan) and Japan (Tokyo).

Ambac maintains a disaster recovery site in Kingston, New York as part of its Disaster Recovery Plan. This remote hot-site facility is complete with user work stations, phone system, data center, internet connectivity and a power generator, capable of serving the needs of the disaster recovery team to support all business segment operations. The plan, facility and systems are revised and upgraded where necessary, and user tested annually to confirm their readiness.

Ambac Financial Group owns an office building in Ronkonkoma, New York, which consists of approximately 15,000 square feet of office space and storage and was leased to PFM Asset Management, LLC under an agreement that expired in January 2006. We are evaluating various options for future use of the property.

Item 3. Legal Proceedings.

There are no material lawsuits pending, or to the knowledge of Ambac Financial Group threatened, to which Ambac Financial Group or any of its majority-owned subsidiaries is a party.

Item 4. Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security-Holders.

There were no matters submitted to a vote of security holders during the fourth quarter of 2005.

Part II

Item 5. Market for Registrant’s Common Equity and Related Stockholder Matters.

As of March 6, 2006, there were 65 stockholders of record of Ambac Financial Group’s Common Stock, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “ABK”.

 

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The table below sets forth, for the quarters indicated, the high and low sales prices per share of Ambac Financial Group’s Common Stock and the amount of cash dividends declared per common share.

 

     High      Low      Dividends

2005:

            

Fourth Quarter

   $ 79.20      $ 67.57      $ 0.150

Third Quarter

   $ 73.25      $ 65.98      $ 0.150

Second Quarter

   $ 78.83      $ 62.20      $ 0.125

First Quarter

   $ 82.92      $ 74.30      $ 0.125

2004:

            

Fourth Quarter

   $ 84.73      $ 68.86      $ 0.125

Third Quarter

   $ 79.95      $ 63.80      $ 0.125

Second Quarter

   $ 75.93      $ 69.21      $ 0.110

First Quarter

   $ 79.76      $ 72.34      $ 0.110

The Board of Directors of Ambac has authorized the establishment of a stock repurchase program that permits the repurchase of up to 18,000,000 shares of Ambac Financial Group’s Common Stock. Ambac Financial Group will only repurchase shares of its Common Stock under the repurchase program where it feels that it is economically attractive to do so and is in conformity with regulatory and rating agency guidelines. The following table summarizes Ambac Financial Group’s repurchase program during the fourth quarter of 2005 and shares available at December 31, 2005:

 

     Total
Shares
Purchased (1)
   Average Price
Paid Per Share
   Total Number of
Shares Purchased as
Part of Publicly
Announced Plan (1)
   Maximum
Number of Shares
That May Yet Be
Purchased Under
the Plan

October 2005

              4,585,952

November 2005

   4,282    $ 72.44    4,282    4,581,670

December 2005

   33,868    $ 77.06    33,868    4,547,802
                     

Fourth Quarter 2005

   38,150    $ 76.54    38,150    4,547,802
                     

 

(1) Shares repurchased during the fourth quarter of 2005 were pursuant to a stock repurchase plan authorized by Ambac’s Board of Directors, for settling awards under Ambac’s long-term incentive plans.

From January 1, 2006 through March 6, 2006, Ambac has repurchased 395,600 shares of its Common Stock and had 4,152,202 shares remaining for repurchase under its stock repurchase program.

Information concerning restrictions on the payment of dividends is set forth in Item 1 above under the caption “Insurance Regulatory Matters—Wisconsin Dividend Restrictions.”

 

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Item 6. Selected Financial Data.

The following financial information for the five years ended December 31, 2005, has been derived from Ambac’s Consolidated Financial Statements. This information should be read in conjunction with the Consolidated Financial Statements and related notes located in Part II, Item 8.

 

Financial Data    Years Ended December 31,  

(Dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

   2005     2004     2003     2002     2001  

Statement of Operations

          

Gross premiums written

   $ 1,095.7     $ 1,047.8     $ 1,143.7     $ 904.0     $ 683.3  

Net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fees

     866.1       764.0       667.3       500.3       400.4  

Net investment income

     426.1       361.1       321.1       297.3       267.8  

Interest income from investment and payment agreements

     270.3       198.8       212.0       255.0       249.9  

Financial services—other revenue

     15.8       26.4       20.6       17.4       24.2  

Total revenue

     1,661.7       1,406.7       1,272.2       958.6       946.8  

Losses and loss expenses

     149.9       69.6       53.4       26.7       20.0  

Financial guarantee underwriting and operating expenses

     117.8       106.6       92.0       76.5       68.0  

Interest expense from investment and payment agreements

     239.3       168.9       196.3       231.3       235.4  

Financial services—other expenses

     13.7       14.7       12.1       9.9       8.9  

Interest expense

     55.9       54.3       54.2       43.7       40.4  

Net income

     751.0       724.6       618.9       432.6       432.9  

Net income per share:

          

Basic

     6.94       6.61       5.81       4.08       4.10  

Diluted

     6.87       6.53       5.66       3.97       3.97  

Return on equity

     14.4 %     15.6 %     15.7 %     13.1 %     15.5 %

Cash dividends declared per common share

     0.550       0.470       0.420       0.380       0.340  

Balance Sheet Highlights

          

Total investments, at fair value

   $ 15,981.4     $ 14,768.4     $ 13,965.4     $ 12,539.3     $ 10,287.9  

Prepaid reinsurance

     303.4       297.3       325.5       296.1       267.7  

Total assets

     19,725.1       18,749.6       16,747.3       15,355.5       12,339.5  

Unearned premiums

     2,954.7       2,778.9       2,545.5       2,128.8       1,780.3  

Losses and loss expense reserve

     304.1       254.1       189.4       172.1       151.1  

Obligations under investment agreements, investment repurchase agreements and payment agreements

     7,252.8       7,080.7       7,076.4       7,282.9       5,511.9  

Long-term debt

     2,233.6       1,866.2       980.9       616.7       619.3  

Total stockholders’ equity

     5,372.2       5,024.5       4,254.6       3,625.2       2,983.7  

 

Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

OVERVIEW

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Our diluted earnings per share was $6.87 for 2005, a 5% increase compared with 2004. During 2005,

 

35


Ambac recorded record revenues of $1.7 billion, an 18% increase as compared to 2004. Return on average shareholders’ equity was 14.4%.

Ambac’s principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation, a leading guarantor of public finance and structured finance obligations, has earned triple-A ratings, the highest ratings available from Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Fitch Inc., and Rating and Investment Information, Inc. Ambac Assurance provides financial guarantees for bond issues and other forms of debt financing. Financial guarantee insurance is a promise to pay scheduled interest and principal if the issuer fails to meet its obligations. A bond guaranteed by Ambac receives triple-A ratings, typically resulting in lower financing costs for the issuer and generally makes the issue more marketable, both in the primary and secondary markets.

Ambac reports its financial guarantee segment broken out into three principal markets: Public Finance, Structured Finance and International Finance. Public Finance includes all U.S. municipal issuance including general obligations, lease and tax-backed obligations, health care, public utilities, transportation and higher education, as well as certain infrastructure privatization transactions, such as stadium financings, military housing and student housing. Structured Finance covers U.S. structured finance transactions, including mortgage-backed securities and other consumer asset-backed securities, commercial asset-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, investor-owned utilities and asset-backed commercial paper conduits. International Finance covers both infrastructure privatization transactions and the structured finance markets outside of the U.S. Pre-tax income growth in the Financial Guarantee segment was the result of increased net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fee revenues, partially offset by increased losses and loss expenses due to Hurricane Katrina.

Management believes that the financial guarantee business thrives on economic cycles. For example, a strong economic environment with good or improving credit is beneficial to our financial guarantee portfolio. However, such conditions, if in place for an extended period of time, will reduce credit spreads and result in lower pricing. Conversely, in a deteriorating credit environment, credit spreads widen and pricing for our product improves. However, if the weakening environment is prolonged, the stresses on our portfolio could result in claims payments in excess of normal or historical expectations. Ambac’s management believes that its business is well positioned to withstand, and in fact prosper, within normal economic and business cycles. Further, Ambac’s financial guarantee business today enjoys a strong competitive position in a variety of product segments on a global scale and is positioned for further geographic product expansion. Management believes that geographic product expansion will be driven, over the long term, by critical infrastructure needs worldwide and the expansion of global credit markets.

Ambac’s Financial Services segment provides financial and investment products including investment agreements, interest rate swaps, currency swaps, total return swaps and funding conduits, principally to clients of the financial guarantee business, which includes municipalities and other public entities, health care organizations, and asset-backed and structured finance issuers. Ambac focuses on these businesses due to the complementary nature of the products to its financial guarantee product.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based upon our Consolidated Financial Statements, which have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally

 

36


accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). The preparation of these financial statements requires us to make estimates and judgments that affect the reported amount of assets and liabilities, revenues and expenses and related disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of our financial statements. Actual results may differ from these estimates under different assumptions or conditions.

Critical accounting estimates are defined as those that require management to make significant judgments and could potentially result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Management has identified the accounting for loss and loss expenses and the valuation of financial instruments as critical accounting estimates. This discussion should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes thereon included elsewhere in this report. Management has discussed each of these critical accounting and estimates with the Audit and Risk Assessment Committee of the Board of Directors.

Financial Guarantee Insurance Losses and Loss Expenses. The loss reserve for financial guarantee insurance discussed in this critical accounting estimates disclosure relates only to Ambac’s non-derivative insurance business. Losses and loss expenses are based upon estimates of the ultimate aggregate losses inherent in the non-derivative Financial Guarantee portfolio as of the reporting date. The evaluation process for determining the level of reserves is subject to certain estimates and judgments.

The liability for losses and loss expenses consists of active credit and case basis credit reserves. Ambac establishes an active credit reserve to reflect probable and estimable losses due to credit deterioration on insured credits that have not yet defaulted or been reported as of the reporting date. The active credit reserve is established through a process that begins with estimates of probable losses inherent in the adversely classified credit portfolio. Estimates are computed on each adversely classified credit. These estimates are based upon: (i) Ambac’s internal system of credit ratings, which are analogous to the risk ratings of the major rating agencies; (ii) internally developed historical default information (taking into consideration ratings and average life of an obligation); (iii) internally developed loss severities; and (iv) the net par outstanding on the adversely classified credit. The loss severities and default information are based on rating agency information and are specific to each bond type and are established and approved by Ambac’s Portfolio Risk Management Committee. The Portfolio Risk Management Committee is comprised of senior risk management professionals and other senior management of Ambac. For certain credit exposures that have deteriorated significantly, Ambac will undertake additional monitoring and loss remediation efforts. Additional remediation can include various actions by Ambac. The most common actions include obtaining detailed appraisal information on collateral, more frequent meetings with the issuer’s or servicer’s management to review operations, financial condition and financial forecasts and more frequent analysis of the issuer’s financial statements. For these credits Ambac would use relevant information obtained from its remediation efforts to adjust the estimate discussed above.

Case basis credit reserves are established for losses on insured obligations that have already defaulted. We believe our definition of case basis credit reserves differs from other financial guarantee industry participants. Our case reserves represent the present value of anticipated loss and loss expense payments expected over the estimated period of default. Loss and loss expenses consider defaulted debt service payments, estimated expenses associated with settling the claims and estimated recoveries under collateral and subrogation rights.

The primary estimates impacting the statistical loss calculation are probability of default and severity of loss. The probability of default increases as a credit exposure deteriorates in quality.

 

37


Political, economic or other unforeseen events could have an adverse impact on default probabilities. However, despite such unforeseen events, our experience has shown, it is not reasonably likely that there would be a change in the probability of default estimates such that a material change in our loss reserve estimate would occur. Our experience has shown that credit deterioration and related changes in default probabilities are a gradual process that typically occurs over a long period of time. Historically, claim payments on financial guarantee contracts have been infrequent but subject to potential high severity. Severity represents the amount of loss that would be incurred on a defaulted obligation due to the difference in the amount of net par guaranteed and the value of the related collateral and other subrogation rights. Loss severity estimates are based upon available information such as rating agency recovery rates or surveillance data such as collateral appraisals. However, severity data used are estimates that are subject to change with political, economic and other market conditions or as new information becomes available. Severity of loss is a primary assumption used to estimate losses and an increase or decrease of the severity would provide a range of reasonably possible future outcomes that would differ from our current loss estimate, which could be material.

Ambac has exposure to various bond types. Our experience has shown that for the majority of bond types, the estimate of loss severity has remained consistent in that material changes to severity estimates have not occurred. However, for certain bond types, factors or events could have a material impact on the estimate of loss severity. Based upon our historical experience, certain types of exposures are more likely to experience changes in loss severity estimates. We believe, based on our experience, there are three bond types in particular where it is reasonably possible that a material change in loss severity estimates could occur. These three bond types are aircraft lease securitizations known as Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates (“EETC”), health care institutions and mortgage-backed and home equity securitizations. The collateral for an EETC bond is commercial aircraft. Intense competition in the global airline industry continues and has been further impacted by lower cost start-up regional carriers. As a result, major airlines have been forced to reduce costs and scale back aircraft purchases. Additionally, high energy costs have negatively impacted operations and competition between the largest aircraft manufacturers has served to reduce overall aircraft pricing. These events have adversely impacted the value of certain aircraft and accordingly impacted the loss severity estimates associated with certain EETC exposures. We have observed that the health care industry is also particularly subject to changes in severity estimates. Collateral associated with health care credits is generally in the form of a hospital facility. The value of that facility is primarily impacted by the essentiality of that facility to a particular community. For example, hospital facilities that do not have significant competition in a community generally have more stable collateral values than facilities in communities with significant competition. It is also reasonably possible that severity estimates could materially change in the mortgage-backed and home equity securitization sector. Severity estimates in this sector are impacted by residential real estate values. Increases in mortgage interest rates, increased unemployment or personal bankruptcies could have an adverse impact on residential real estate values and mortgage-backed and home equity loss severity estimates. See Losses and Loss Expenses section of this Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations below.

 

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The table below outlines the estimated impact on the December 31, 2005 consolidated loss reserve estimate (both active credit and case basis reserve) of reasonably possible changes in the loss severity assumptions. These changes in the loss severity assumptions, while maintaining the current probability of default and adversely classified credit rating constant, represent management’s estimate of reasonably possible changes in severity and are based upon our historical experience.

 

Category

(Dollars in millions)

  

Current

Severity

Assumption

    Reasonably
Possible
Severity
Assumption
    Increase in
Reserve
Estimate

EETC

   20 %   46 %   $ 15

Health care

   62 %   79 %   $ 15

Mortgage-backed and home equity

   17 %   19 %   $ 8

As a result of the widespread devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina, Ambac recorded loss and loss expenses of $91.5 million in 2005. Ambac’s exposure to losses as a result of the hurricane is derived primarily from its guarantees of municipal bonds in the greater New Orleans area and the Gulf-front regions that were most severely impacted by the storm. In determining our loss estimates, our analysis has considered the unprecedented nature of the disaster, including the displacement of the communities’ residents, and the unique aspects of each insured bond, such as the nature of the revenue source, the level of debt service reserves, if any, and other transaction protections. The severity of loss on these credits will be impacted by the timing and extent of residents’ return to the affected areas. Throughout the history of Ambac, there have not been any significant losses resulting from natural disasters. As a result, management has adjusted our assumptions to reflect the unprecedented nature of the disaster. Future decreases, if any, to these assumptions will have a similar relative effect on our loss reserves and future increases, if any, to these assumptions, excluding those municipal finance credits fully reserved, will also have a similar relative effect on our loss reserves.

Ambac’s management believes that the reserves for losses and loss expenses are adequate to cover the ultimate net cost of claims, but the reserves, including the probability of default and loss severity assumptions are based on estimates and there can be no assurance that the ultimate liability for losses will not exceed such estimates.

Valuation of Financial Instruments. The fair market values of financial instruments held are determined by using independent market quotes when available and valuation models when market quotes are not available. Ambac’s financial instruments categorized as assets are mainly comprised of investments in fixed income securities and derivative contracts.

Investments in fixed income securities are accounted for in accordance with Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (“SFAS”) 115, “Accounting for Certain Investments in Debt and Equity Securities”. SFAS 115 requires that all debt instruments and certain equity instruments be classified in Ambac’s balance sheet according to their purpose and, depending on that classification, be carried at either cost or fair market value. Ambac classifies investments in fixed income securities as available-for-sale.

The fair values of fixed income investments are based primarily on quoted market prices received from a nationally recognized pricing service or dealer quotes. For those fixed income investments where broker quotes were not available, fair values are based on internal valuation models. Key inputs to the internal valuation models include maturity date, coupon and generic yield curves for industry and credit rating characteristics that closely match those characteristics of the specific investment

 

39


securities being valued. The valuation results from these models could differ materially from amounts that would actually be realized in the market. The percentage of the investment portfolio that is based upon internal valuation models was 1% and 2% at December 31, 2005 and 2004, respectively.

Ambac’s exposure to derivative instruments is created through interest rate, currency, total return and credit default swaps. These contracts are accounted for at fair value under SFAS 133 “Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Certain Hedging Activities,” as amended (“SFAS 133”). Fair value is determined based upon market quotes from independent sources, when available. When independent quotes are not available, fair value is determined using valuation models. These valuation models require market-driven inputs, including contractual terms; credit spreads on underlying referenced obligations, yield curves and tax-exempt interest ratios. The net fair value of derivative contracts was $167 million at December 31, 2005. Ambac uses both vendor-developed and proprietary models, based on the complexity of transactions. The selection of a model to value a derivative depends on the contractual terms of, and specific risks inherent in, the instrument as well as the availability of pricing information in the market. For derivatives that trade in liquid markets, such as interest rate and currency swaps, we utilize vendor-developed models. For derivatives that trade in less liquid markets, such as credit derivatives on synthetic collateralized debt obligations and total return swaps, a proprietary model is used because such instruments tend to be more complex and pricing information is less available in the market. These models and the related assumptions are continuously re-evaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based on improvements in modeling techniques.

In accordance with the Emerging Issues Task Force (“EITF”) Issue No. 02-3, “Issues Involved in Accounting for Derivative Contracts Held for Trading Purposes and Contracts Involved in Energy Trading and Risk Management Activities” (“EITF 02-3”), recognition of a trading profit at inception of a derivative transaction is prohibited unless fair value of that derivative is obtained from a quoted market price, supported by comparison to other observable market transactions, or based upon a valuation technique incorporating observable market data. Ambac defers trade date gains or losses on derivative transactions where the fair value is not determined based upon observable market transactions and market data. Management’s judgment is applied in recording adjustments to fair value that take into account various factors, including but not limited to, credit risk, future administration costs, the bid offer spread and illiquidity due to lack of market depth. For additional information regarding the sensitivity of these instruments, see “Risk Management—Market Risk” below.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

The following paragraphs describe the consolidated results of operations of Ambac and its subsidiaries for 2005, 2004 and 2003 and its financial condition as of December 31, 2005 and 2004. These results are presented for Ambac’s two reportable segments: Financial Guarantee and Financial Services.

Income From Continuing Operations. Ambac’s income from continuing operations in 2005 was $751.0 million or $6.87 per diluted share, an increase of $25.2 million, compared to $725.8 million or $6.54 per diluted share in 2004. Ambac’s income before income taxes was $1,022.8 million in 2005, an increase of 5% from income before income taxes of $976.8 million in 2004. Of the $1,022.8 million of income (loss) before income taxes in 2005, $1,009.3 million was from Financial Guarantee, $81.0 million from Financial Services and $(67.5) million from Corporate. Corporate consists primarily of Ambac’s interest expense on debentures outstanding. That compares to income (loss) before income

 

40


taxes in 2004 of $987.4 million, $52.7 million and $(63.3) million from Financial Guarantee, Financial Services and Corporate, respectively. Financial Guarantee income before income taxes increased as a result of (i) higher net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fees, (ii) higher net investment income (excluding the impact from the consolidation of variable interest entities under FIN 46) and (iii) the impact of a mark-to market loss on interest rate derivative contracts relating to Ambac’s medium-term funding conduit in 2004, partially offset by (i) a higher provision for losses and loss expenses, (ii) lower net realized investment gains and (iii) higher operating expenses. Financial Services increase is primarily attributable to higher net interest earned from investment agreements and higher mark-to-market gains on non-trading derivative contracts, partially offset by lower derivative products revenue.

Included in the 2005 income from continuing operations in the Financial Guarantee segment, is the impact of cancellations of a reinsurance contract with Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (“Radian”), which had been downgraded by the rating agencies in 2004. The net impact of this cancellation to the Consolidated Statements of Operations in 2005 amounted to approximately $2.7 million, $1.8 million after-tax. Included in the 2004 income from continuing operations in the Financial Guarantee segment, is the impact of cancellations of certain reinsurance contracts with two reinsurers, AXA Re Finance S.A. and American Re-Insurance Company, both of which had been downgraded by the rating agencies in 2003. The net impact of these cancellations to the Consolidated Statements of Operations in 2004 amounted to approximately $7.0 million, $4.5 million after-tax.

Ambac’s income from continuing operations in 2004 increased $97.7 million compared to $628.1 million or $5.74 per diluted share, in 2003. Ambac’s income before income taxes in 2004 was up 15% from income before income taxes of $849.6 million in 2003. This increase was attributable to growth in both the Financial Guarantee and Financial Services segments. Income (loss) before income taxes in 2003 consisted of $888.1 million from Financial Guarantee, $23.0 million from Financial Services and $(61.5) million from Corporate.

Net Loss From Discontinued Operations. In November 2003, Ambac announced that it had entered into an agreement to sell the operations of Cadre Financial Services, Inc. and Ambac Securities, Inc., its investment advisory and cash management business. The transaction closed during the first quarter of 2004, with proceeds of $3.7 million in cash and $4.3 million in a note. This business had been part of the Financial Services segment.

The net loss from discontinued operations was none, $1.3 million and $9.2 million for 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. The primary reason for the 2004 loss was a purchase price adjustment due to lower than anticipated revenues. The loss for 2003 included a goodwill write-down of $4.7 million.

Financial Guarantee

Ambac provides financial guarantees for debt obligations through its principal operating subsidiary Ambac Assurance Corporation, as well as credit protection in the form of structured credit derivatives through Ambac Credit Products LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ambac Assurance. Ambac provides these services in three principal markets: public finance, structured finance and international finance.

Ambac guaranteed $125.3 billion of gross par value bonds during 2005, an increase of 6% from $118.1 billion in 2004. Par value written during 2004 increased 2% compared to $115.3 billion written during 2003.

 

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The following table provides a breakdown of guaranteed net par outstanding by market sector at December 31, 2005 and 2004:

 

(Dollars in billions)    December 31,
2005
   December 31,
2004

Public Finance

   $ 264.1    $ 239.7

Structured Finance

     144.3      132.4

International Finance(1)

     70.7      87.3
             

Total net par outstanding (2)

   $ 479.1    $ 459.4
             
  (1) The decline in International net par outstanding resulted primarily from calls, terminations and paydowns of pooled debt and mortgage-backed transactions.
  (2) $7.5 billion of the net par outstanding increase in 2005 was a result of the Radian reinsurance cancellation noted above.

The following tables provide a rating distribution of guaranteed net par outstanding based upon internal Ambac Assurance credit ratings at December 31, 2005 and 2004 and a distribution by bond type of Ambac Assurance’s below investment grade exposures at December 31, 2005 and 2004. Below investment grade are defined as those exposures with a credit rating below BBB-:

 

     Percentage of Guaranteed Portfolio(1)  
     December 31,
2005
   

December 31,

2004

 

AAA

   8 %   8 %

AA

   26 %   23 %

A

   45 %   47 %

BBB

   20 %   21 %

Below investment grade

   1 %   1 %
            

Total

   100 %   100 %
            

 

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Summary of Below Investment Grade Exposure (1)

 

Bond Type          

(Dollars in millions)

   2005    2004

U.S. Public Finance:

     

Transportation

   $ 653    $

Health care

     584      571

General obligation

     387      104

Tax-backed

     135      135

University

     70      38

Other

     146      151
             

Total U.S. Public Finance

     1,975      999
             

U.S. Structured Finance:

     

Enhanced equipment trust certificates

     927      205

Investor-owned utilities

     575      803

Mortgage-backed and home equity

     507      774

Pooled debt obligations

     384      481

Asset-backed

     188      221
             

Total U.S. Structured Finance

     2,581      2,484
             

International Finance:

     

Transportation revenue

     219      215

Investor-owned utilities

     52      59

Sovereign/sub-sovereign

     38      38

Pooled debt obligations

          510

Other

     203      223
             

Total International Finance

     512      1,045
             

Grand Total

   $ 5,068    $ 4,528
             

 

(1) Internal Ambac Assurance credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac and may differ from ratings determined by the independent ratings agencies. The ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice.

The total number of credits with Ambac Assurance ratings below investment grade were 75 and 73 at December 31, 2005 and 2004, respectively. Increases within the U.S. transportation and EETC bond types from December 31, 2004 are a result of the deteriorating credit quality within the airline industry. Also, U.S. Public Finance below investment grade exposure in 2005 includes $368 million related to Hurricane Katrina (primarily general obligation bonds). The decline in U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity below investment grade exposures relates to the prepayments of the underlying insured credits. The decline in International Finance pooled debt obligations resulted from a maturity of one transaction with net par of $510 million.

Public Finance:

Public finance obligations are bonds issued by states, municipalities and other governmental or not-for-profit entities located in the United States (“Public Finance”). Bond proceeds are used to finance or refinance a broad spectrum of public purpose initiatives, including education, utility, transportation, health care and other general purpose projects. Although Ambac Assurance guarantees the full range of Public Finance obligations, Ambac Assurance concentrates on those projects that

 

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require more structuring skills. Certain projects, which had been financed by the local or U.S. government alone, are now being financed through public-private partnerships. In these transactions, debt service on the bonds, rather than being paid solely by tax revenues or other governmental funds, is being paid from a variety of revenue sources, including revenues derived from the project itself. Examples of such transactions include stadium financings, student housing and military housing. Included in transportation obligations is exposure to U.S. airports of $8.8 billion at December 31, 2005. Airport obligations are generally supported by (i) terminal lease revenues, parking and other concession revenues; (ii) passenger facility charges; or (iii) payments in respect of specific airport facilities.

Public Finance bond obligations par value written was $53.8 billion, $44.6 billion and $43.0 billion for 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. Ambac’s market share for 2005, based upon par insured, remained relatively flat at 23% compared to 2004 and up nearly 2% over 2003 at approximately 21%. Insured market penetration was 57% in 2005, the highest in the past 10 years, up from 55% and 50% in 2004 and 2003, respectively.

The table below shows the percentage, by bond type, of new Public Finance business gross par guaranteed by Ambac Assurance during each of the last three years.

New Business Guaranteed by Bond Type

 

Bond Type

   2005     2004     2003  

U.S. Public Finance:

      

Lease and tax-backed revenue

   34 %   34 %   32 %

General obligation

   28     26     20  

Health care revenue

   11     9     10  

Utility revenue

   8     14     12  

Transportation revenue

   8     7     12  

Higher education

   7     8     9  

Housing revenue

   3     2     4  

Other

   1     0     1  
                  

Total U.S. Public Finance

   100 %   100 %   100 %
                  

Structured Finance:

Structured finance obligations include securitizations of a variety of asset types such as mortgages, home equity loans, student loans and credit card receivables; commercial asset-backed securities; leases; pooled debt obligations; investor-owned utilities and asset-backed commercial paper conduits originated in the United States (“Structured Finance”). Included within the commercial asset-backed sector are securitizations of operating assets, including aircraft, rental car fleets, and rail cars, as well as film and publishing royalties. Exposures to Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates were $1.6 billion at December 31, 2005. Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates are secured financings used by the airline industry to finance aircraft. The financings are tranched to create a priority of interests in the aircraft collateral. Pooled debt obligations, including structured credit derivative transactions, involve the securitization of a diverse portfolio of corporate bonds and loan obligations and asset-backed securities (the “Securitized Assets”). Ambac Assurance’s exposure to these Securitized Assets is mitigated through first loss protection. Typically, first loss protection is in the form of over-collateralization (i.e., the principal amount of the Securitized Assets exceeds the principal amount of the structured finance obligations guaranteed by Ambac Assurance) or excess spread (i.e., interest cash flows on the

 

44


Securitized Assets is in excess of the interest on the debt obligations guaranteed by Ambac Assurance), which allows the transaction to experience defaults among the Securitized Assets before a default is experienced on the structured finance obligations.

Structured Finance obligations par value written was $58.8 billion, $53.4 billion and $50.2 billion in 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. The increase in Structured Finance obligations guaranteed for 2005 as compared to 2004 resulted primarily from higher par written in pooled debt obligations, partially offset by a decline in the consumer asset-backed sector of the market (including mortgage-backed securities). The increase in Structured Finance obligations guaranteed in 2004 compared to 2003 resulted from higher par written in the consumer asset-backed sector of the market (including mortgage-backed securities), partially offset by a decline in pooled debt obligations and commercial asset-backed transactions.

The table below shows the percentage, by bond type, of new Structured Finance business gross par guaranteed by Ambac Assurance during each of the last three years.

New Business Guaranteed by Bond Type

 

Bond Type

   2005     2004     2003  

U.S. Structured Finance:

      

Mortgage-backed and home equity

   36 %   50 %   47 %

Asset-backed and conduits

   29     28     24  

Pooled debt obligations

   23     6     9  

Student loans

   7     8     7  

Investor-owned utilities

   4     2     4  

Other

   1     6     9  
                  

Total U.S. Structured Finance

   100 %   100 %   100 %
                  

International Finance:

International finance obligations include public purpose infrastructure projects and asset-backed securities originated outside the United States (“International Finance”). International Finance asset-backed obligations may include significant components of domestic exposures. Ambac Assurance’s emphasis internationally has been on Western Europe and Australia. In the United Kingdom, Ambac Assurance has participated extensively in the Private Finance Initiative whereby the government has been privatizing certain infrastructure finance activities. Ambac Assurance expects demand for our financial guarantees on infrastructure privatization transactions to increase in certain other European countries. Ambac also participates in less developed markets through certain structures such as pooled debt obligations and future flow transactions. Future flow transactions essentially securitize U.S. dollar-based future revenue streams arising from exports or banking flows.

International Finance bond obligations par value written was $12.7 billion, $20.1 billion and $22.1 billion for 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. International Finance obligations guaranteed during 2005 is lower than 2004 primarily due to decreases in mortgage-backed obligations, pooled debt obligations (although higher as a percentage of total new business generated), transportation revenue obligations, asset-backed and conduits and sovereign/sub-sovereign obligations guaranteed, which were partially offset by higher investor-owned and public utility obligations. The decrease in International Finance bond obligations guaranteed in 2004 compared to 2003 is primarily due to

 

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decreases in pooled debt obligations and transportation revenue obligations, which were partially offset by higher mortgage-backed and sovereign/sub-sovereign obligations guaranteed.

The table below shows the percentage, by bond type, of new International Finance business gross par guaranteed by Ambac Assurance during each of the last three years.

New Business Guaranteed by Bond Type

 

Bond Type

   2005     2004     2003  

International Finance:

      

Pooled debt obligations

   24 %   19 %   34 %

Asset-backed and conduits

   36     29     26  

Mortgage-backed and home equity

   6     30     24  

Investor-owned and public utilities

   30     5     3  

Transportation revenue

   3     5     12  

Sovereign/sub-sovereign

   1     12     1  
                  

Total International Finance

   100 %   100 %   100 %
                  

Gross Premiums Written. Ambac Assurance receives insurance premiums either upfront at policy issuance or on an installment basis over the life of the transaction. The collection method is determined at the time of policy issuance. Gross premiums written in 2005 were $1,095.7 million, an increase of 5% from $1,047.8 million in 2004. Up-front premiums written in 2005 were $575.4 million, flat compared to $574.6 million in 2004. Up-front premiums written by market sector saw increases in Public Finance, which were offset by decreases in both Structured and International Finance. Installment premiums written in 2005 were $520.3 million, an increase of 10% from $473.2 million in 2004. The growth in installment premiums is due to the growing book of business in both Structured and International Finance. Gross premiums written in 2004 decreased 8% from $1,143.7 million in 2003. This is a result of decreased business activity in all three market sectors. The following table sets forth the amounts of gross premiums written by type:

 

     2005    2004    2003

Public Finance:

        

Up-front

   $ 528.1    $ 513.4    $ 576.0

Installment

     24.2      24.2      16.7
                    

Total Public Finance

     552.3      537.6      592.7
                    

Structured Finance:

        

Up-front

     15.0      20.0      82.4

Installment

     299.5      261.7      238.2
                    

Total Structured Finance

     314.5      281.7      320.6
                    

International Finance:

        

Up-front

     32.3      41.2      80.6